NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 10
by Matt Severance - 11/11/2010
The loyal readers of this column know that I was bounced from my Survivor Pool a few weeks ago when the New Orleans Saints lost at home to the Cleveland Browns – which doesn’t look so bad now after Cleveland just beat New England, too. But my pool allows buybacks so we have kept this column going.
I bring this up because I almost got knocked out again last week, and probably should have been – as you would have if you were following my advice. My top choice in Week 9 was the bickering Minnesota Vikings and, frankly, they absolutely should have lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals. The Vikes were down 14 points with less than five minutes to go, but then Brett Favre displayed some of his magic that hadn’t really shown up thus far this year. Favre threw a 25-yard touchdown to Visanthe Shiancoe with 27 seconds to play in regulation, then had a key 22-yard pass to Bernard Berrian to set up the game-winning field goal. Favre threw for a career-high 446 yards to deflect the attention, at least for one day, away from how much the players apparently hate head coach Brad Childress.
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Hey, a win is a win.
Both of my other “Have No Fear” choices for weekly Survivor Pool picks also came through, with the Falcons improving to 17-1 at home under Matt Ryan in beating Tampa Bay and the Packers embarrassing Dallas and ending the Cowboys coaching career of Wade Phillips.
I am going to take some self-gratification in my top “Steer Clear” pick: the Patriots. That just smelled like a trap/letdown game, and it sure was as Cleveland dominated. Hopefully you didn’t get lured in on what looked like a mismatch.
Anyways, on to Week 10. Off my board are the Vikings, Chiefs, Saints, Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Packers, Ravens and Titans.
Have No Fear
New York Giants (vs. Dallas): No team is in more turmoil than the Cowboys, who obviously quit on Phillips. Jason Garrett takes over as the interim coach, but it simply doesn’t matter. The Giants are the hottest team in the league right now, having won five games in a row. They beat Dallas, 41-35, just a few weeks ago – that was the game in which Romo was injured. And really, the score wasn’t indicative of New York’s domination. And that was in Dallas.
Tampa Bay (vs. Carolina): Let’s put it this way: Carolina’s starting quarterback will be Jimmy Clausen, who was 0-3 in his previous starts and has a 48.0 quarterback rating. He gets the call because Matt Moore was lost for the season – don’t be surprised to maybe see Tony Pike at some point. And the Panthers’ top three running backs are all hurt, so some guy named Mike Goodson will make the first start of his career. I guess if you are ever going to use the Bucs this is the week.
San Francisco (vs. St. Louis): The Rams are actually a pretty darn good team now at home, but are 0-3 on the road. Troy Smith starts again for the Niners at quarterback as Alex Smith isn’t quite ready to return from injury. Troy Smith was pretty solid two weeks ago in the win against Denver in London. Both teams enter off the bye, but I almost always take the home team in that scenario if all other things are mostly even.
Indianapolis (vs. Cincinnati): This is my Patriots-Browns trap game of this week and partly because of New England. Yes, the Colts are 3-0 at home and the Bengals 1-3 away. And, yes, Cincy is on a short week after losing to Pittsburgh on Monday night in a game in which Chad Ochocinco had the audacity to complain to his quarterback as the team was trying to win the game. Maybe I’m wrong, but I think the Bengals have some heart and they simply have to win or the season’s over (it probably is anyways). But mainly I worry about Indy because it is down to two legit receivers, Joseph Addai is out again, it had a tough game last week at Philly and then faces the Pats next week. This is a “sandwich” game.
New York Jets (at Cleveland): Let’s just say I’m a Peyton Hills believer now. Can you imagine the Browns beating three Super Bowl contenders in a row with rookie Colt McCoy at QB? New York’s offense seems stagnant right now, and it only won last week because Detroit’s Matthew Stafford got hurt and the Lions then imploded.
Kansas City (at Denver): Chiefs are a very different team on the road, going just 1-3 this season and that one win was a squeaker in Week 2 at Cleveland. Of course, Denver has just one home win. However, the Broncos had two weeks to prepare for this one.
So, to recap, go with the Giants in Week 10. Good luck.
Jason Sharpe has been excellent for his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, and he has shown a profit in 9 of 10 weeks for his NFL handicapping and college football picks and $100 players are up $8,500 on the season! He sees some weak NFL point spreads on the board this week and is very excited to extend his current run. Also this week he will have a 6-Unit NFL Game of the Month and he is hitting 80% on his top plays this season. Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Sharpe or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice (new clients only).
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