American Athletic Conference Weekly Betting Report (Plus Free Pick)
by Dave Schwab - 9/24/2013
The American Athletic Conference just completed the fourth week of its first season of existence in college football this past Saturday, and it has been a great ride so far with a perfect 4-0 record in my AAC pick of the week. This past week I had Houston over Rice as a three-point neutral-site favorite for three units using Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System. The Cougars delivered with a 31-26 victory despite the Owls’ fourth-quarter attempt at a backdoor cover. My goal for this season is to deliver a $1000 profit on my AAC picks over the course of the entire season. And as you can see from the early results, I am well on my way.
The following is a brief betting report for all the Week 5 games in the AAC as well as my top pick of the week. All the lines quoted have been provided by BetOnline.
Saturday, Sept. 28
No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks (-7) vs. Central Florida Knights
Total Line: 53
The Gamecocks were off this past week after beating Vanderbilt 35-25 on Sept. 14 as 10.5-point favorites at home. They are 2-1 straight up on the year and 1-2 against the spread, with the total going “over” in two of the three games. South Carolina is ranked 33rd in the nation in rushing with an average of 224.7 yards a game.
UCF has already made its mark this season as an underdog with a 34-31 victory over Penn State two weeks ago as a 4.5-point dog on the road. It comes into this matchup 3-0 both SU and ATS, with the total staying under in two of the three games. The Knights are ranked 34th in the country in passing with 277.3 yards a game.
No. 15 Miami Hurricanes (-18.5) vs. South Florida Bulls
Total Line: 48.5
Miami continues to make its way up the rankings with a 3-0 SU start that includes a huge 21-16 victory over Florida as a three-point home underdog on Sept. 7. The Hurricanes are 2-1 ATS, and the total has stayed “under” in two of their first three games.
The Bulls are still looking for their first win of the season after getting outscored 102-37 in their first three outings. They were off this past Saturday after falling to Florida Atlantic 28-10 the week before as 12-point favorites at home. South Florida is averaging just 264.7 yards of total offense while giving up 34 points a game.
Connecticut Huskies (-2.5) vs. Buffalo Bulls (-2)
Total Line: 50
You have to give credit to the Huskies for last week’s 24-21 loss to Michigan as 18.5-point home underdogs, but this was a game they should have won after building a 10-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Connecticut is now 0-3 SU (1-2 ATS). The total stayed under against the Wolverines after going over in its first two games.
The Bulls opened the season with road losses to Ohio State and Baylor as prohibitive underdogs before squeaking by Stony Brook 26-23 in overtime as 12-point favorites at home on Sept. 14. They are 1-2 both SU and ATS, with the total going over in all three games.
Houston Cougars (-2.5) vs. Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners
Total Line: 62.5
Houston’s five-point victory over Rice this past Saturday moved it to 3-0 SU and ATS on the year after posting previous wins over Southern and Temple. The Cougars have shown tremendous balance on offense; they rank in the top 25 in both passing and rushing yards per game.
UTSA improved to 2-2 SU on the year with a 32-13 win over UTEP this past Saturday as a 2.5-point favorite on the road. The Roadrunners are a perfect 4-0 ATS this season, and they have now covered in their last eight games.
Temple Owls (-8.5) vs. Idaho Vandals
Total Line: 54
Temple is still searching for its first win of the season after losses to Notre Dame, Houston and Fordham. Things appear to be getting worse after covering against the Fighting Irish considering the Owls were 20.5-point home favorites against the Division IAA Rams two weeks ago.
The Vandals are off to a 0-4 start SU, and they are 2-2 ATS. They were blanked 42-0 this past Saturday by Washington State as 31.5-point road underdogs. The total has stayed under in three of the four games. Idaho is ranked 120th in the nation in scoring and 122nd in points allowed.
AAC Pick of the Week
SMU Mustangs vs. TCU Horned Frogs (-19)
Total Line: 52.5
SMU is coming off a 42-13 loss to No. 10 Texas A&M this past Saturday as a 27.5-point underdog on the road. The Mustangs are now 1-2 SU on the year and 0-3 ATS. The one thing this team has been able to do fairly well is throw the ball behind quarterback Garrett Gilbert. He has already posted a total of 1,015 passing yards in his first three games.
The Horned Frogs started the season ranked 20th in the AP’s preseason poll, but their stay was brief after a 37-27 Week 1 loss to LSU as four-point home underdogs followed by a 20-10 loss in Week 3 to Texas Tech as three-point favorites at home. They have struggled to move the ball on offense, and their once-vaunted defense is allowing an average of 24.7 points a game.
The Mustangs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against TCU. It is highly doubtful that they will be able to go into Amon Carter Stadium and get a SU win this Saturday, but stick with SMU to cover with the 19 points in this onging in-state rivalry.
3-Unit Play Take SMU +19 over TCU (Saturday, Sept. 28, noon)
Year to Date Record: 4-0 (+1400)
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