Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 14
by Aaron Smith - 11/27/2013
It’s time for the Week 14 edition of the mid-major betting report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. After failing to become bowl eligible in its previous two games, the UNLV Rebels went on the road and beat Air Force to pick up their sixth win. I’ve been following the UNLV Rebels all year long to have a better understanding of this team. Bettors should consider closely following teams, because specialization is often one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100-per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
UNLV picked up a 41-21 win at Air Force on national television last Thursday night. Who led the way for the Rebels? Tim Cornett’s 36 carries for 220 yards paced the offense. Cornett’s 220 rushing yards were the most in his career at UNLV. Caleb Herring completed 15 out of 18 passes and came up with some big plays when the team needed them most.
The Rebels defense deserves the majority of the credit for the big win. UNLV held an elite Air Force rushing offense to just 4.1 yards per carry, and they completely shut them down early in the game. Air Force boosted their numbers late when the game was already decided. The Falcons had been torching the Rebels rushing defense over the past few years, so that was the big difference this season.
UNLV jumped out to a 27-0 lead in this game. Air Force rallied back to make it 33-21 in the third quarter before UNLV put the game on ice with a late touchdown drive in the fourth quarter. Last week’s selection on UNLV +1 was a winner.
Notes of Interest
-Logan Yunker continues to do a terrific job at punter for UNLV. In difficult conditions, Yunker managed to average 50.3 yards per punt last week at Air Force. Those are the kind of contributions you need to change field position and come up with a key win on the road.
-It will be Senior Day at UNLV this weekend as they host San Diego State in their final regular season game. Nineteen seniors will be honored by the school. These seniors are part of the first senior class at UNLV to become bowl eligible since 2000.
-San Diego State will be the opponent this week, and the Aztecs come to town playing some very good football of late. San Diego State has won seven of their last eight games after starting 0-3. Their lone loss during that eight-game span was an overtime loss at the hands of unbeaten Fresno State in a game where the Aztecs had a very good chance to win.
-San Diego State apparently loves to play extra time. The Aztecs have played four overtime games already this season, including their big win last week at home over Boise State. UNLV has yet to play in an overtime game this season.
-While the Rebels are bowl eligible at this point, they aren’t a lock for a bowl berth. UNLV would finish 6-6 on the year and likely end up in the Hawaii Bowl with a loss this week, but that’s no guarantee. With a win this week, UNLV would almost definitely go to either the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl or the New Mexico Bowl.
-San Diego State is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 conference games
-UNLV is 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games
-San Diego State is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two teams
-The “under” is 3-0-1 in the last four games between these teams
San Diego State vs. UNLV College Football Odds
The UNLV Rebels opened as a three-point underdog in this one. Some money has come in on the road team, and the Rebels are now showing as a 3.5-point underdog in their regular season finale. The posted total opened at 53.5, and it now sits at 54.
San Diego State vs. UNLV College Football Picks
Rocky Long has this San Diego State team playing with a lot of momentum right now, but UNLV should be well-prepared for this game as well. I’m not willing to recommend laying more than a field goal on the road team, but I also am hesitant to back UNLV against this solid of an opponent. Both offenses are likely going to be able to move the ball quite a bit in this one. The “over” looks like the best value, especially since overtime is always a possibility with San Diego State playing close games every week. I’ll recommend a one-unit play on over 54.
Pick: #405- Take SD State/UNLV over 54 for One Unit
Season Results: 3 Wins 8 Losses (-5.2 Units)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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