Weekly CFB Mid-Major Betting Report: UNLV Rebels Week 11
by Aaron Smith - 11/7/2013
It’s time for the 10th edition of the weekly college football mid-major report. This year the team in focus is the UNLV Rebels. UNLV had a chance to become bowl eligible with a win at home against San Jose State last week, but the Spartans held off UNLV, 34-24. The task doesn’t get any easier this week for the Rebels as they host a very good Utah State team. I’ll be keeping a close eye on press conferences from the program, beat writers, as well as Twitter feeds all season long. By becoming an expert on the UNLV Rebels, I hope to show how specialization is one of the most profitable sports betting strategies.
At the end of each mid-major betting report, I’ll make a selection on that week’s game. Doc’s Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This should allow readers to follow along and track the results of these weekly college football picks. In the first two years of the mid-major report, $100 per-unit bettors were up $1,410.
Last Week’s Game
San Jose State led 24-3 last week at halftime. The Rebels got it going in the second half, but it ended up being too little too late. UNLV did a very nice job slowing down David Fales and the Spartans passing attack, but the Rebels weren’t able to stop San Jose State’s running game. San Jose State ran for 6.9 yards per carry and 312 yards in total for the game overall. UNLV was outgained 492 to 351 yards.
Caleb Herring threw two interceptions in a game for the first time this season. The Rebels offense was awful in the first half against a Spartans defense that hasn’t been good this year. UNLV did get it going offensively in the second half but not until it was too late. Since UNLV got behind big early on, the Rebels were forced to throw the ball 49 times. That really isn’t the type of offensive attack UNLV wants to have. The Rebels had just 86 yards on the ground in last week’s loss. Last week’s selection on the “over” was a loser.
Notes of Interest
-Football legend Jerry Rice took to Twitter after last week’s game and said “Bobby Hauck completely got out coached. What do you guys think? 34 to 24” That tweet raised some eyebrows, but it should be noted that Jerry Rice Jr. is on the Rebels roster, which is why Rice would be paying close attention to UNLV games. Rice Jr. has seen his playing time go up and down this year, and there has been some controversy surrounding that on Twitter. Never a dull moment on Twitter!
-UNLV coaches and players said after last week’s game that they had no one to blame other than themselves. Hauck said after the game, “We didn’t deserve to win, that’s on me.” Herring said, “We dug ourselves a hole and we only have ourselves to blame for that.”
-Both UNLV and Utah State enter this weekend’s game with a 5-4 record, so the winner of this game will be eligible for postseason play. Utah State is without their star quarterback Chuckie Keeton, but they have been impressive in their last two games with freshman quarterback Darrell Garretson at the helm.
-Utah State isn’t afraid to go on the road in the Mountain West. The Aggies have won 10 straight Mountain West Conference road games. They have won 15 of their last 16 league games overall.
-Utah State is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games
-UNLV is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games versus a team with a winning record
-The over is 6-2 in the Aggies last eight road games
-Utah State is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between these teams
Utah State vs. UNLV College Football Odds
Utah State opened as 11.5-point road favorites in this one. Money has come in on the Aggies all week long, and they are now favored by 13.5 at most books. While there has been some significant movement in the side on this game, the posted total opened at 56.5 points, and it still sits there today.
Utah State vs. UNLV College Football Picks
Last week’s loss to San Jose State was an eye-opener for UNLV. San Jose State normally doesn’t run the ball well, but they absolutely gashed UNLV repeatedly in that one. Utah State is a very good running team, and the Aggies will look to take advantage of the Rebels weakness in the front seven.
Utah State’s defense may be the best in the Mountain West. I expect UNLV to be outclassed in this game, but with the line at 13.5 I’ll only recommend a small play on Utah State. Utah State -13.5 for one-unit is this week’s play.
Pick: #185- Take Utah State -13.5 for One Unit
Season Results: 2 Wins 7 Losses (-5.1 Units)
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Read more articles by Aaron Smith
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