College Football Mid-Major Betting Report: Akron Zips Week 8
by Aaron Smith - 10/15/2014
Week 8 of the college football mid-major betting report is here. This is the fourth year Doc's Sports has offered this report. The goal of this weekly article is to try to show bettors that specialization is a profitable betting strategy. It's a strategy many of the best bettors in the world use. There are 128 FBS level teams in college football, so specialization is even more relevant in this sport than many others.
I'm following the Akron Zips from the Mid-American Conference in every way possible this season. I'll be following the team on Twitter, listening to their press conferences, and reading reports from Zips beat writers to try to find information that could help me become an expert on this team. At the end of each mid-major report I'll make a selection on that game. Doc's Sports Unit Betting System will be used for every pick. This will allow readers to follow along and track the results.
Through the first three years of doing this report, the record for the mid-major betting report selections is 18-12, and the overall profit is $1,590.
The Akron Zips beat the Miami (Ohio) Redhawks 29-19 last game. Akron's offense struggled throughout that game, but some big plays from the defense keyed that win. The Zips started the scoring with a safety in the first quarter. Akron's defense forced three turnovers. How about the Zips rushing defense? They held Miami to a net of zero rushing yards! Miami had 23 carries and didn't pick up a single yard on the ground. The Zips rushing defense has been tremendous for the last few games.
Kyle Pohl was injured in the game, and he didn't play at all in the second half. Freshman Tommy Woodson had seen some time earlier in the year, and he played the entire second half. The Zips offense was a little more conservative in the second half with Woodson under center, but that was at least partially due to the fact that Akron held a double-digit lead. For the game, Akron had only 318 yards of total offense. The Zips continue to be penalized at a high rate. Akron committed nine penalties for 74 yards last week.
Both defenses played well in last week's game, and that allowed the one-unit play on 'under' 51 to cash in.
Notes of Interest
-Elton Alexander, writer at The Plain Dealer, put together an article on Wednesday afternoon about Pohl's status for this weekend's game. Pohl was not a part of Akron's Wednesday morning practice. The Zips had originally hoped to decide whether Pohl would play by Wednesday, but Coach Terry Bowden said Wednesday afternoon, "We'll wait and evaluate one more day before we make the final decision." Bowden said the team won't have anything different on offense if Woodson ends up being the starter, rather he will run precisely the same offense. Akron hasn't said too much about Pohl's injury, although it is a head injury, and some believe he may have suffered a concussion.
-JD Sprague is expected to get the start at quarterback for Ohio in this game. Sprague is the Bobcats backup, but he has been playing since starter Derrius Vick suffered in an injury in the team's fourth game. There had initially been some thought that Vick might be back for this one, but Frank Solich said in his press conference that Vick hasn't been practicing and he has been ruled out for Saturday's contest.
-You won't see a more misleading final score than Ohio's 31-13 loss to Bowling Green last week. Ohio outgained Bowling Green 513 yards to 355 yards. They had 29 first downs compared to only 19 for Bowling Green. The Bobcats held the ball for nearly 40 minutes in that game. Ohio essentially moved the ball up and down the field with ease but bogged down in the red zone nearly every time. Ohio ran 110 plays in that game!
-Akron is now ranked 10th in the nation in sacks per game at 3.5 per contest. The Zips ability to get pressure on the opposing quarterback has really made life easier on the entire defense. Between 2008 and 2012, Akron never finished with more than 17 sacks in a season. They have 21 already in 2014.
-Ohio is 0-6 against the spread in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
-Akron is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.
-The under is a perfect 12-0 in Akron's last 12 road games.
-The under is 6-2 in Ohio's last eight games overall.
-The Zips are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings with Ohio.
Akron vs. Ohio College Football Odds
The odds haven't been as readily available for this game as most since many books have been waiting for the status of Pohl. There are still multiple books without a line on this game, but the books that have released a line have Akron installed as a three-point favorite. The posted total now sits at 42 or 42.5 depending on the book.
Akron vs. Ohio College Football Picks
Akron was beaten 43-3 at home last year by Ohio, so the Zips have revenge on their minds this weekend. I planned on making the under in this game a big play, but with the total sitting at only 42.5 points, it will be a 2-unit selection. I don't often do this, but I also like the Zips chances in this one regardless of who is at quarterback, so I'm going to recommend a 1-Unit play on Akron -3 as well.
Pick: #319- Take Akron/Ohio under 42.5 for Two Units
Pick: #319- Take Akron -3 for One Unit
Season Results: 3 Wins 2 Losses ($-50)
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