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Betting Odds and Free Picks for NBA Player Props for Monday

by - 5/25/2015

Houston Rockets shooting guard James Harden

The NBA conference finals are down to two crucial Game 4 showdowns with Golden State on the verge of closing out Houston on Monday night with a 3-0 series lead in the West and Cleveland holding the commanding 3-0 series lead against Atlanta in the East heading into Tuesday night's game.

Adding even more betting action to the plate are a number of NBA player prop odds that have been released in conjunction with the games. The following are a few of my top player prop bet picks based on betting odds from some of the top sportsbooks in the game.

NBA Conference Finals- Game 4 Top Scorer

Bovada has set the betting odds for which player will be the top scorer in a combination of both Monday's Game 4 in the West and Tuesday's Game 4 in the East. At the top of the list are three players at 2/1 odds starting with Houston's James Harden followed by LeBron James for the Cavaliers and Stephen Curry for the Warriors.

The odds really fall off after that, but I still think there is some solid value in Atlanta point guard Jeff Teague's odds to be the highest scorer between all the players in the two games at 14/1. He currently leads the Hawks in scoring through their first 15 playoff games with an average of 16.8 points per game. He is coming off a 30-point effort this past Sunday in a Game 3 loss that was second only James' game-high 37 points.

The two main reasons I am going to take a flyer on Teague's higher odds over the top three marquee scoring machines in the league are injury and desperation. Atlanta's shooting guard Kyle Korver was lost for this series with an ankle injury in Game 2, so the pressure has already been dialed up on Teague to fill that void. The Hawks are now just a loss away from seeing their playoff run come to an end, so you know he is not going to leave anything left on the court this Tuesday in an effort to help his team stay alive.

Houston's James Harden Posts a Double-Double

Sportsbook.ag has set the player prop bet odds that Houston's James Harden posts a double-double in Monday night's Game 4 at -140. Looking back over the stats for his previous 15 playoff games this season, he has recorded five double-doubles and had one triple-double in Game 5 victory over the Los Angeles Clippers in the conference semifinals. He is actually coming off one of his worst performances in the postseason with just 17 points while shooting 3-for-16 from the field in Saturday's loss. He added just three rebounds and four assists.

Going with the theory that big-time players do big-time things in big-time situations, I am expecting a monster effort for Harden to keep his team's slim chances alive. Just like he did in that must-win situation in Game 5 against the Clippers with 26 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists, I fully expect him to be in double figures for at least two of the three categories.

Golden State's Stephen Curry's Total Assists

The player prop odds that Warriors' point guard Stephen Curry dishes out more than 10.5 assists in Monday's Game 4 have been set at +140. If you go back over his first 13 playoff games during his team's current run to the NBA Finals, you would find that the most assists that he ever had were 10 in Game 6 that clinched the conference semifinal matchup against Memphis. However, he has come close to passing this mark a few times with an average of 6.6 assists a game in the playoffs. This is just slightly lower than a regular-season average of 7.7 assists that factored into him being named the league's MVP.

This is another clear case of a big-time player doing whatever it takes to get his team a win. You have to think that Houston is going to do everything in its power to slow him down on the scoreboard after he torched the Rockets for 40 points in Game 3. This should work to open up a few more opportunites to move the ball around to the other four players on the court.

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