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2015 North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions and College Basketball Futures Odds

by Victor Ryan - 10/29/2015

North Carolina Tar Heels guard Marcus Paige

North Carolina is built to win now. Nearly everyone is back on a roster that's filled with experienced upper classmen. Seniors Marcus Paige and Brice Johnson, juniors Kennedy Meeks and Nate Britt, as well as a few other of the veterans will get one last chance to make noise in the NCAA Tournament after two years of largely underachieving.

All of the names listed-as well as junior reserve Isaiah Hicks-were among the most prized recruits in college basketball when they arrived in Chapel Hill. Big things were expected from this group, but that has yet to be the case. Two years ago, Paige and company could do no better than a tie for third in the ACC and were knocked out of the NCAA Tournament in the Round of 32. Last year, the Tar Heels slipped to fifth in the ACC and were eliminated in the Sweet 16.

This is unacceptable for a program like North Carolina. The good news for the Tar Heels is Coach Roy Williams has done his best work when guiding experienced teams. That's exactly what he had in 2005 and 2009, and both of those teams went on to win the NCAA Championship.

For North Carolina, winning this year seems to be even more urgent. Looming over the program are possible NCAA sanctions stemming from an academic fraud scandal. A decision from the NCAA, which could include lost scholarships and postseason bans, is expected to be handed out later this year or early 2016.

2015 North Carolina Key Losses and Additions

Of the 10 players that averaged at least 10 minutes per game last season for North Carolina, the only loss is forward J.P. Tokoto. The forward was a key contributor for the Tar Heels as he averaged 8.3 points per game, 5.6 rebounds per game and 4.3 assists per game. However, his biggest value was on the defensive side as he was named to the ACC All-Defensive team last season. Tokoto declared for the NBA draft this spring after his junior season but was not selected. He was later signed by the 76ers but was waived after five preseason games.

The loss of Tokoto could be big. North Carolina's biggest issue the past two seasons has been its often abysmal effort on the defensive end. Losing an all-league defender doesn't figure to help.

Given all the returners, the Tar Heels signed just two incoming freshman for this season. Luke Maye is a 6-foot-7 forward from North Carolina who is projected as a stretch-three. The other signee was Kenny Williams, a 6-foot-3 guard from Virginia who's known as a good perimeter shooter. Williams could get a big look early as outside shooting has been another weakness of North Carolina the past two seasons.

2015 North Carolina Backcourt

Paige is by far the Tar Heels best player and is a legitimate All-America candidate. Last season, he started all 38 games despite dealing with a persistent hip injury and plantar fasciitis for most of the season. Paige played 33.2 minutes a game and averaged 14.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. Paige is reportedly completely healthy this season and could be poised for a breakout season.

The other starting guard is Justin Jackson. Last year as a freshman, Jackson averaged 10.7 points per game while converting 47.7 percent of his field goal attempts. He figures to take another step forward now having a year of experience to draw from.

Theo Pinson will also see plenty of action out on the wing. The athletic sophomore will likely be tasked with filling the role of Tokoto on the defensive end.

There could also be minutes for Williams. As noted, the Tar Heels could use another perimeter shooter, and that's his reputation coming out of high school.

2015 North Carolina Frontcourt

Kennedy Meeks shot 56.2 percent from the field while averaging 11.4 points and 7.3 rebounds per game a season ago. He can also really pound the offensive glass. The problem with Meeks to this point has been his suspect defense. He is often a step slow on the defensive end when dealing with athletic big men and quick, penetrating guards, which leaves him prone to foul trouble. However, the word is Meeks-who is listed at 6-foot-9 and 265 pounds-slimmed down this offseason. Perhaps that will help add to his overall quickness.

Senior forward Brice Johnson is a nice piece on the inside for the Tar Heels. Last season, the long and lean Johnson started 37 games and averaged 12.9 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. He is a much more polished offensive player than Meeks and should be the Tar Heels No. 1 option inside.

The other key returner down low for the Tar Heels is Hicks. He was a five-star recruit out of high school but has been limited to a backup role during his time at Chapel Hill. Still, Hicks is an excellent option to have coming off the bench. He can get hot quickly and score points in bunches for the Tar Heels when on the floor.

2015 North Carolina Future Odds

North Carolina, which enters the season tied with Kentucky atop the USA Today Coaches Poll, is also the co-favorite to win the NCAA championship. The Tar Heels are listed at 8/1 to win the title, which is tied with Maryland.

2015 North Carolina Tar Heels Predictions and NCAA Basketball Picks

North Carolina is one of the most polarizing teams in college basketball coming into the season. Many folks salivate over the Tar Heels blend of talent and experience, but others are a bit more wary given the upper classmen have yet to actually win anything or even show they compete with the nation's elite. North Carolina simply failed to show up for some games last season, which resulted in some embarrassing losses. Have these Tar Heels finally matured? It's now or never. The thought here is this veteran group will want to leave its mark before moving on. A Final Four berth seems possible, but winning it all could be a stretch despite their No. 1 ranking.

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