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Betting the Super Bowl Total Line Expert Advice and Tips

by - 2/4/2016

Denver Broncos RB Ronnie Hillman

Super Bowl 50 may be the most difficult Super Bowl to handicap in recent memory. The betting public has been firmly behind the Carolina Panthers, but as the line continues to move, wagering on Denver plus six points becomes more intriguing with every day that passes by. However, if you are at a loss for which side to take, just skip the spread altogether and focus on the totals line. The most prevalent analysis has been that defense will rule the day as both sides possess game-changing players. However, Carolina can move the ball with ease, and a high-scoring matchup wouldn't be a shocking outcome. Let's take a closer look at the Super Bowl total line with advice and betting tips. All odds come from Bovada.

Super Bowl Total Line

45: "over" -115

The Super Bowl total line opened at 45.5 at most sportsbooks last week and has since dropped as much as a point at certain sites. Bovada currently has the line at 45 points, but the number can be found at 44.5 at certain other Doc's Sports affiliated sportsbooks. With much of the action coming in on the "under", the sports world seems to be expecting a defensive-oriented game ruled by the stars on that side of the ball. This number could go even lower and drop to 44 points later in the week as the media continues to play up the defensive factors in this matchup. One thing to remember is that both teams ended up in the Top 5 in defensive points scored during the regular season, so expecting a touchdown or two from the defense is well within reason.

Super Bowl Total Line Trends

The last two Super Bowls with a totals line less than 46 points managed to go "over", but in general the wager has been a 50/50 proposition during the last decade with a 6-6 mark over the last 12 games. In general, the Super Bowl tends to be a high-scoring game, with seven of the last 10 matchups going over the 45-point mark. Let's take a look at a few totals trends for both Carolina and Denver and figure out if anything of value pops out:

Carolina

4-0 OVER during the last four playoff games.

4-1 OVER during the last five overall games.

6-2 OVER after a straight up win.

20-7-1 OVER against teams with a winning record.

Denver

5-1 UNDER during the last six playoff games.

4-1 UNDER after a straight up win.

5-2 UNDER during last seven overall games.

5-2 UNDER against teams with a winning record.

Super Bowl

Three of the last five matchups have totaled more than 50 points.

Three straight OVERS all with betting lines of 47.5

4-1 OVER during the last five matchups

Super Bowl Totals Betting Advice and Tips

Denver and Carolina trends do not seem to merge during this matchup, and the game may turn into a situation where a Carolina win comes with an over and a Denver victory comes with an under. Overall, the Super Bowl has become a higher-scoring affair. And with the rules leaning toward the offense, taking the over might be the smart play here. However, the best way to wager on the total might be to follow your lean on the game. If you like the Panthers to win, expect a high-scoring matchup where Newton goes crazy. If you like the Broncos to win, expect a situation where the defense shuts down Newton and grinds out a victory.

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