NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 6

by Matt Severance - 10/11/2017

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson

Week 4: Idiot for picking Atlanta as my No. 1 Survivor Pool choice.

Week 5: Wile E. Coyote, Super Genius for warning my readers NOT to take the Pittsburgh Steelers at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars because they were almost too obvious and thus likely to be the pick of many of your competitors. My reasoning: "The Jags have played way better away from northeast Florida than at home in 2017. Pittsburgh perhaps will be overvalued a bit after last week's win at crappy Baltimore."

And indeed the Steelers never came close to winning in a 30-9 defeat as clearly past-his-prime Ben Roethlisberger threw five interceptions, two returned for touchdowns by that top-ranked Jacksonville pass defense. Seriously, don't play your QB against that team in any fantasy leagues. The Jags, who lead the NFL with 20 sacks, 10 interceptions and four defensive touchdowns, are the fourth team in NFL history and the first since the 1984 Seahawks with at least 20 sacks, 10 picks and four defensive TD in their first five games of a season.

Leonard Fournette also ran all over the Steelers with 181 yards and two touchdowns, including a 90-yarder. He is only the fifth rookie to score at least one touchdown in each of his team's first five games of a season and looks like a great choice as the No. 4 overall pick this year.

Really no other earth-shattering upsets in Week 5. I thought the Giants would beat the visiting Chargers but also didn't expect Big Blue to lose every receiver on the roster to injury. I was also high on Cincinnati (would have been my pick if still alive) over Buffalo and Philadelphia over Arizona, and both the Bengals and Eagles won. But 10 teams overall won on the road, the most away victories in a single week since 11 in Week 13 of 2015. Can't say I saw that coming.

Off in Week 6 are Buffalo, Cincinnati, Dallas and Seattle. Here are the picks, with club listed first the choice.

First Down

Denver vs. NY Giants: I'm not really that high on the Broncos and especially QB Trevor Siemian overall, but Denver is off the bye and I expect the Giants to go into full tank mode now that Odell Beckham (and Brandon Marshall to a much lesser extent) is done for the season. That offense just isn't the same without OBJ.

Second Down

Houston vs. Cleveland: The only reason this isn't in the top spot is I wonder if the Texans might be a bit flat off a big Sunday night loss to Kansas City and also losing top defenders J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus for the season. Think Deshaun Watson might have a chip on his shoulder here when the Browns could have drafted him a few times in April's first round?

Washington vs. San Francisco: One could make an argument for this as the top pick this week, too, as the Redskins are off their bye. However, the winless 49ers have been very competitive with their past four losses all by three points or fewer. Plus, if anyone knows what Kirk Cousins might do, it's his former offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan.

New England at NY Jets: I'm sure you have used the Patriots by now. The Jets have stayed close with them in seven of the past eight meetings.

Baltimore vs. Chicago: Hey, at least Mitchell Trubisky provides some hope for the future to us Bears fans. He clearly has the physical tools; now it's up to Ryan Pace to find a legitimate NFL receiver or two this offseason. On the short week I'm guessing the rookie struggles, though, against a good Baltimore defense.

Atlanta vs. Miami: FU Falcons! They are off the bye and should blast the Miami Cutlers. Why can't Bears coach John Fox also tape himself snorting cocaine and send it to a stripper so he would have to resign like Chris Foerster? That could only happen to the Dolphins.

Third Down

Carolina vs. Philadelphia (Thursday): Who predicted this matchup before the season as the marquee game of Week 6 and perhaps the best TNF game of 2017? The Eagles' decision to move up to No. 2 in last year's draft to take Carson Wentz looks smarter and smarter each week.

Green Bay at Minnesota: Yeah, Vikings on a short week but this smells like a letdown game for Green Bay - even though it's a big rivalry - after another amazing Aaron Rodgers comeback last week in Dallas.

New Orleans at Detroit: Move the Saints way up if Matthew Stafford doesn't play due to injury; he has led the Lions to three straight wins over Drew Brees and Co.

Tampa Bay at Arizona: The Cardinals traded for Adrian Peterson on Tuesday. Big whoop. I wouldn't get all excited and go get Peterson in your fantasy leagues - he's done.

Jacksonville vs. LA Rams: Entering this season, you couldn't have paid me to watch this game. Amazing how much can change. Now it's two young teams that appear to be on the rise.

Kansas City vs. Pittsburgh: This would scare me to death as a Chiefs fan. Big Ben figures to bounce back, right? I'm guessing it will take a touchdown to win this game, unlike what Pittsburgh accomplished in last year's Divisional Round at Arrowhead.

Oakland vs. LA Chargers: The Raiders only if Derek Carr returns from his back fracture, which he apparently might after missing just one game. This really should be Los Angeles Raiders vs. San Diego Chargers, but money talks.

Fourth Down

Tennessee vs. Indianapolis (Monday): Any game where Matt Cassel is the starting quarterback, ignore it. I only like Tennessee here if Marcus Mariota is back from his hamstring injury.

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NFL Survivor Pool Picks and Advice: Week 6

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