Expert College Bowl Game Betting Advice: How to Handicap Star Players Skipping Game

by Trevor Whenham - 12/18/2018

It is amazing how quickly things can change. It was only two years ago, in 2016, that Leonard Fournette and Christian McCaffrey made waves by opting to skip their bowl games and prepare for the draft while avoiding injury. The decisions were highly controversial at the time, and both guys had to deal with a whole lot of negativity and claims that they were hurting their teams - giving up on them, even. But now the practice is so widespread that it feels like much of the potential first round that isn't in the playoff is sitting out. There are still some prominent voices speaking out against the practice, including Clemson coach Dabo Swinney. It's hilarious that a coach would speak out about making a business decision when coaches make them all the time and often miss bowl games and leave teams hanging as a result. But for the most part the practice has become normalized in record time.

I look at myself and my reaction this case. I love college football more than any sport - by a whole lot - so on a pure fan basis it breaks my heart that this is happening. But after having seen guys have their draft stock hurt badly by a bad bowl injury time and again, I can't even pretend that they are doing anything other than the right thing. I noticed the shift in my attitude right after the bowls were announced this year. I was writing about West Virginia's chances in their bowl game, and though QB Will Grier had announced nothing and hadn't even dropped a lot of hints yet, I wrote that he very likely wouldn't play, and that he shouldn't. I didn't hold out any hope for the sake of the sport or try to convince myself of anything. I just accepted what made the most sense, and it wasn't Grier finishing off a very impressive season - not when a first-round selection and a huge payday are a few months away if he stays healthy.

And as a Michigan fan I hardly even batted an eye when Rashan Gary announced he wasn't playing the Peach Bowl. I hardly care about watching the game after the Ohio State debacle, so I get why he doesn't want to play - not with a likely Top 5 pick on the horizon and a history of injuries this year. And as a Michigan fan I watched tight end Jake Butt shred his knee in the 2016 Orange Bowl and fall way out of the first round, so I'd actually be a bit annoyed if Gary did play - at least if we're not in a better game than the Peach Bowl.

The list of players skipping bowls this year is long and growing - Stanford RB Bryce Love announced his intentions as I was halfway through this article, and he surely won't be the last. And some teams are hit harder than others. West Virginia has lost their star offensive tackle as well. Houston has lost two defenders. N.C. State loses one star from each side of the ball of a roster that doesn't have a lot of stars to spare.

As bettors, we have to keep our perspective when dealing with these situations. Here are three things to keep in mind when dealing with what is clearly our new reality going forward:

Other players don't care: If you are at all concerned about the impact that this could have on a dressing room, then you don't get it. The other players understand that it is a business, and they would do the same thing if they had the opportunity. When Fournette and McCaffrey started this trend, the opinions about their moves seemed to split on age lines - older fans didn't respect it, but younger ones certainly did. Players might be a little disappointed. However, if you think this will rip teams apart or be a major distraction, then you aren't paying attention.

It's December, not September: If teams lost star players in September it could leave a hole. But in December the hole is much smaller. If the team is strong enough to have a star in a position, they probably have a decent player or two behind him on the depth chart. And those backups have by this point seen some playing time, practiced a whole lot, and generally started to figure out the game. They are the new starters now, and they are eager, and often ready, to prove that they are up to the task. There could likely be a step back, but typically not as much of one as it could be.

It's football, not basketball: This is just basic math. A basketball team relies on five players to contribute. Losing a star-caliber player for a key game would be a problem. Football has 22 starters, so one star has less of an impact. Casual bettors almost always give one player too much credit for success and too much blame for losses.

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Start:	December 12, 2024 @ 7:30 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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Expert College Bowl Game Betting Advice: How to Handicap Star Players Skipping Game

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