NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

by Joey House - 8/25/2025

College football Week 1 opening line report Arch Manning Texas Longhorns

The wait is over. The transfer portal has cooled, the media days are behind us, and the first whistles of the season have already echoed across campuses. Week 1 is here, and with it comes the return of the Doc's Opening Line Report (OLR)—where we cut through the noise and get straight to the numbers that matter. Each week, we start where every bettor should: the openers. These lines are the rawest form of market sentiment, shaped by power ratings, returning production, and the ever-elusive "intangibles." Let's break down what the books are telling us before the public reshapes the board.

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Differences Between Week 0 & 1 vs. the Rest of the Season

Week 0 and Week 1 in college football stand out in handicapping because teams enjoy extended preparation time, and betting lines are posted well ahead, giving the public ample opportunity to wager and allowing the market to adjust based on emerging information. Unlike later weeks with quick turnarounds and lines reacting to recent games, these openers feature odds available for weeks or months, especially for big matchups, leading to notable movements from sharp and public betting on news such as injuries or transfers.

For example, in 2024, the Indiana Hoosiers hosted Florida International, and the initial line opened at Indiana -18.5. The Hoosiers had undergone a significant overhaul, bringing in new head coach Curt Cignetti from James Madison University in the Sun Belt Conference. Cignetti, who not only brought virtually his whole staff with him, also convinced a dozen of his former JMU players to follow him to the floundering Big Ten program. As the season previews started to circulate, and word got out that there was something special happening in Bloomington, the line started to swell and eventually closed at IU -25.5. Indiana opened their improbable run to the first 12-team College Football Playoffs wth a 31-7 victory, but failed to cover the closing line of 25.5.

No. 25 Boise State vs. South Florida (+6.5/63) Aug. 28, 5:30 p.m. EST ESPN

The visiting Broncos are coming off the heels of a widely successful season, where they won the Mountain West conference with a 12-1 regular season record and earned a first-round bye in the College Football Playoffs. Unfortunately, they ran into the stifling defense of Penn State, and Boise State fell in the quarterfinals 31-14. The offense returns 7 starters, including 3-year starting quarterback Maddus Madsen, although they do lose the 2024 Heisman Trophy runner-up, running back Ashton Jeanty. The face off against a South Florida squad that went 6-6 during the regular season, winning arguably the most exciting non-playoff bowl game, a 5OT thriller against San Jose State, 41-39. The Bulls bring back 8 starters on both sides of the ball. This line opened at BSU -10 but has dropped down to -6. The public may doubt the Broncos' ability to move the ball after losing their dynamic running back, but their experience across the board will help them against a plucky South Florida squad. PICK: Boise State -6.5

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 3 Ohio State (-2*-/47.5) Aug. 30, Noon FOX

Texas enters the season opener with Arch Manning stepping into the starting role after backing up Quinn Ewers in 2024. Manning started two games late last season and showed high-level command, completing over 66 percent of his passes and averaging more than 10 yards per attempt. He now leads an offense featuring Ryan Wingo, DeAndre Moore Jr., and five-star freshman Kaliq Lockett, giving Texas a blend of experience and explosive upside at receiver. Defensively, the Longhorns return most of a unit that ranked third nationally in yards per play allowed and led the country in opponent passing efficiency. That continuity will be critical against Ohio State's Julian Sayin, a redshirt freshman making his first collegiate start. Sayin inherits a talented roster but faces a defense built to confuse young quarterbacks and capitalize on timing breakdowns. Ohio State also lost both coordinators in the offseason, adding schematic uncertainty to a team already breaking in a new quarterback. The line opened with Ohio State favored by 3, but has dropped to -2 as sharp money continues to back Texas. The Longhorns enter ranked No. 1 in both major preseason polls and carry the added motivation of avenging last year's playoff loss. With the more stable roster, elite defensive continuity, and a quarterback ready to ascend, Texas has the matchup edge and the momentum to win outright. PICK: Texas +2

Missouri State vs. USC (-35/59.5) Aug. 30, 7:30 p.m. EST BTN

USC opens the season against a Missouri State squad making its FBS debut, and the gap in program infrastructure, depth, and speed is likely to be exposed early. The Trojans are coming off a year of transition in the Big Ten and enter 2025 with renewed focus and a favorable matchup to showcase their system. Missouri State may bring energy and ambition, but stepping into the Coliseum against a team built for Power Five competition is a different challenge entirely. USC's tempo, physicality, and schematic polish should overwhelm a Bears roster still adjusting to the pace and complexity of top-tier football. The spread is steep at 35, but USC has a history of handling overmatched opponents with precision, especially in season openers. Expect early separation, a fast start, and a defensive effort that limits Missouri State's ability to sustain drives. PICK: USC -35

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Start:	August 26, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
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NCAA Football Predictions: Week 1 Opening Line Report and Picks

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