NCAA Football Predictions: Championship Week Report, Best Bets and Picks
Let's quickly start with a recap of this past weekend in college football. This was a weekend to be hyped for as Michigan took on OSU. That was one of the blockbuster games that we covered in our predictions last week. We had OSU covering their -7.5 at home against Michigan. Michigan arrived in Columbus with a plan to cause mayhem. This is the first time Michigan has beat OSU in back-to-back games since Tom Brady graduated from Michigan. That game truly surprised me as Michigan embarrassed OSU at Ohio Stadium.
We also had another shocker as Toledo lost to Western Michigan. Toledo should have covered their -7.5 spread easily as they are clearly the better team. However, enough college football this season has taught us that when you get off to a slow start and let bad teams hang around, you're going to be in trouble. To wrap up the recap, we were able to cash out on Kansas State beating Kansas in their interstate rivalry matchup by 20 points.
Without further notice, let's get into action as we will be covering three games this week as teams continue to become bowl eligible. Conference champions and bowl games are right around the corner, which indicates that the College Football Playoff is approaching. That make these three matchups listed below very important.
Doc’s Sports offers college football picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Game 1: LSU vs Georgia
Opening Line: Georgia -17.5
This is going to be the most exciting game to watch this weekend. If LSU wins this game, they’re heading to the CFP and Georgia will most likely fall out of the top four. Georgia rolls into this game ranked at No. 1 and LSU is ranked No. 5. This could have been a potential matchup in the CFP semifinals. This game will not only determine the SEC Conference champion of the 2022 season, but potentially alter the playoff race drastically. LSU lost a tough game to Texas A&M last week in College Station. They came out flat and could not slow the ball down on defense. LSU had a very ineffective pass rush, which is uncharacteristic for them. Jayden Daniels also fumbled in the second half as LSU was gaining momentum towards a comeback. Texas A&M took the fumble back for a touchdown, gaining the much-needed separation to shatter LSU’s hopes of winning the game. Georgia, on the other hand, ran through interstate opponent Georgia Tech. This week I'm going to reach and grab the points on LSU as 17.5 is a lot for a team ranked 5th overall.
This line is clearly an overreaction to the outcomes that proceeded this matchup. Georgia does have a tough defense and one of the best offensive units in college football. However, LSU is a strong enough team to compete with Georgia on both sides of the ball. They are well coached and they are a way better team on the road than at home.
One of the biggest factors for me taking this line is how slow LSU plays in the first half. They like to take their time on offense when they aren’t playing from behind. This is going to be a much closer game that is presented to us here. I expect them to cover this +17.5-point spread as this price is ridiculous for a team that beat Alabama and Ole Miss.
Pick: LSU +17.5
Game 2: Kansas State vs TCU
Opening Line: -2.5
As we know, I'm very huge on backing TCU this season. This has been one of my favorite teams to bet on as they have been very profitable. They enter this game as a 2.5-point favorite over Kansas State, who absolutely dominated last week. This is one of the biggest games of the year for TCU, as they need to win this game in order to maintain their seat in the CFP.
TCU took on Iowa State last weekend and annihilated them, sending a statement to the CFP committee as they picked apart one of the toughest defenses in college the season, putting up 62 points, That was very much needed after their one-point victory over Baylor the previous week.
Kansas State is a strong defensive team that probably could have beaten TCU earlier this season if it wasn't for their starting quarterback leaving the game early due to injury. TCU has played in a big game every week, and they have shown resilience as they still remain one of only undefeated programs in Division 1 football. This game seems perfect for us as everyone thinks that this is a letdown spot for TCU as they encounter Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship Game. This TCU offense is no match for Kansas State as they average 41 ppg, compared to Kansas State at 33 ppg.
We are getting extreme value here as we are able to grab TCU at just under a field goal to win this game. If the line may have been anything over a touchdown, I would have probably backed Kansas State as they do have a tough defense that allows only 19 ppg. This is going to be a close game unless a team can break away with a few back-to-back scores. We have to back the hot hand here and expect them to keep bulldozing their way into the CFP by making another statement in this championship game.
Pick: TCU -2.5
Game 3: Purdue vs Michigan
Opening Line: Michigan -16.5
Michigan is walking into this game as the big bully of college football as they beat up OSU pretty bad last week. This is one of my favorite lines as Michigan takes on Purdue in the Big Ten Championship Game. Michigan is walking into this game as -16.5 favorites, which is pretty low considering how dominant Michigan is. Michigan allows an average of 12 PPG while scoring an average of 39 PPG.
Purdue has had success in recent weeks beating Illinois, Northwestern, and Indiana. However, we saw how challenging it is for their offense to keep up a consistent level of play when facing hard-nosed defenses like Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern. Michigan has a very strong defense that held OSU to just 22 points in a shootout. Look for Michigan to completely shut down Purdue’s offense and pick apart their defense. Michigan should win this game by more than three scores.
Pick: Michigan -16.5
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