Free NBA Picks Milwaukee Bucks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/9/2023
This season, I will be breaking down every Milwaukee Bucks weekday game and giving out my best bets for the contest. While we may not always favor the Bucks, using my knowledge of the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.
The last article was on February 24, when the Bucks took down the Heat 128-99. Since then, I was on vacation, but the daily articles will be back going forward. In that game, we went 2-1 on bets, as Jimmy Butler cashed his Over, the Bucks covered the short spread, but the total sailed past our Under bet.
Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.
The Bucks stretched their win streak to 16 games on March 1st before falling to the 76ers in a 133-130 thriller, where the Bucks blew an 18-point lead. This didn’t deter them, as they’ve won back-to-back road games, beating the Wizards and the Magic heading into tonight’s contest. Their lead atop the Eastern Conference is now 2 games, and they look primed to challenge for another NBA championship. Khris Middleton has been slowly making his way back into the lineup, posting 20+ minutes in 8 of his last 9 games, after failing to do so in the 6 games prior. His resurgence has propelled the Bucks up the standings, and he will need to stay productive, and more importantly, healthy in the final stages of the regular season.
Tonight, the Bucks (47-18) welcome the Brooklyn Nets (37-28) to Milwaukee. The Nets are still adjusting to life without Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, but still find themselves in a solid position to make the postseason. Mikal Bridges has emerged as their number 1 option, scoring 26.5 PPG in his 10 games with Brooklyn. While it was very clear he did not want to leave Phoenix, he’s a professional and is still leaving his heart on the court day in and day out. Realistically, the Nets are clinging onto their 6th place seed, and will likely find themselves dropping into the play-in tournament before the season’s end. No disrespect to Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Nic Claxton, but this team will not be seeing any second-round action. Their 3rd ranked FG% (49.5) and 3PT % (38.4) ensures they are always a threat every night, but the Bucks are several tiers ahead of the new-look Nets squad.
Milwaukee has their sights set on clinching the number 1 seed in the league, holding a 1.5 game lead over the Nuggets. Securing home court advantage throughout the playoffs is always a bonus, and 89.2% of championship winners finished in the top 2 seeds in their conference. Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the star of this team, and keeping him healthy will be the top priority for the Bucks. He suffered a scary injury heading into the all star break, but has not seen any lasting effects, scoring 30.3PPG, 11.0 Rebounds and 6.8 Assists over his last 4 games.
The ‘Greek Freak’ is certainly overjoyed to have Middleton back in the mix, and a starting lineup with Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, and Grayson Allen has the talent and depth to win a title. The scoring can come from all over the floor, and the Bucks have the star, the depth, and the defense to succeed.
Against the Nets, the Bucks cannot afford to take the game lightly. The red-hot shooting Brooklyn can bring onto the court can allow them to get the best of anyone, and the Nets actually had a 10 point lead at halftime when these two teams met a week ago. However, the Nets wilted late, and it’s always going to be difficult to win when Milwaukee outscored their bench 43-13. In addition to the Bucks advantage on the bench, their advantage on the glass is apparent. The Bucks are first in the league in rebounds while the Nets are second to last. Antetokounmpo, Lopez, and Bobby Portis are always hungry in the paint, and the second chance points will drive Nets head coach Jacque Vaughn crazy.
The first bet for tonight has to be Brook Lopez Over 5.5 Rebounds at -150 odds for 3 Units. Lopez has hauled in 6+ boards in 7 of his last 8 games, including a 10-rebound double-double when these two teams last met. Lead rim protector Claxton will be focused on Antetokounmpo, and considering the guards are back for the Bucks, the 7-footer will find himself open in the paint more often than not.
Regarding the spread and moneyline, I can’t bring myself to bet either side. A -750 Moneyline bet is not profitable in the long run, and the 12-point spread is certainly daunting considering the instantly hot hands from Brooklyn, and the back door cover possibility. If I had to pick, I’d lean towards Nets +12, but will not be stepping in front of a healthy Bucks squad at home, even at this price.
The second bet for the night is the total, Over 232. The Bucks will have a plethora of second chance points, and will leave the Brooklyn end of the court with points at a high frequency. The Bucks may not have a high 3PT %, but they are always willing to get into a shootout, which will not be contested by the Nets. Between the raining 3’s, and the second chance points for Milwaukee, I expect this total to squeak Over.
Pick: Brook Lopez Over 5.5 Rebounds -150 3 Units
Pick: Bucks vs Nets Over 232 1 Unit
2022-23 Season Record:
ML Record: 10-9
Spread Record: 12-11
Total Record: 6-9
Player Props Record: 23-19
Up 9.7 Units ($970)
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