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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 5/15/2023

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets predictions LeBron James

The top two Western Conference giants lock horns, with a place in the NBA Finals on the line. The Los Angeles Lakers are searching for a record-breaking 17th NBA championship, led by the all-time NBA leading scorer LeBron James. The supporting cast surrounding James is even stronger than his 2020 championship winning teammates, and James will feel confident he can add a 5th title to his mantle, further cementing his status as one of the greatest players of all time. 

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Across the court stands the surging Denver Nuggets, looking for the first Finals appearance in franchise history. Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic successfully dominated the last 3 regular seasons but is lacking the playoff accolades to round out his resume. The Nuggets finished with the top regular season record, and their 8-3 playoff record is joint best with the Miami Heat. A monumental clash is on the horizon, and there are numerous betting opportunities available with this series. While the Nuggets are listed as slight favorites, anything short of another Finals appearance for James will be seen as a failure. It’s anyone’s series, let’s dive in.

The Lakers had a roller coaster of a season but have managed to right the ship at the right time. With just 24 games to go, the Lakers found themselves with a 26-32 record, languishing in 13th place. The +7000 odds attached to an NBA championship was a fair representation of the squad, as they were a +300 longshot to qualify for the postseason. Flash forward 3 months, and the Lakers have gone 26-10 since, including a play-in victory and two straight series victories. The acquisitions at the trade deadline have made all the difference, and the Lakers were suddenly one of the deepest, and most talented teams in the league. They managed to stay healthy down the home stretch, something James and Anthony Davis have struggled with in recent years. They swatted aside the Memphis Grizzlies in the opening round by a score of 4 games to 2, heavily leaning on their scoring depth. They had 5 different leading scorers, with James, Davis, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, and Austin Reaves all taking a leading role in one of the encounters. The off-court drama stole some of the spotlight from the fantastic basketball the Lakers were playing, and they came into the second round full of confidence. They dispatched the defending champions, the Golden State Warriors, in 6 games, and looked confident from Game 1’s opening tip off until the final buzzer in game 6. The Lakers were able to take advantage of the Warriors poor road record, winning all 3 games, and are now a perfect 6-0 at Crypto.com arena in the postseason. Home dominance, solid defense, a couple future hall of famers, and a plethora of depth scoring is a great recipe for sustained postseason success in the NBA.

The Lakers may have had doubts whether they’d still be alive at this stage of the season, but the Nuggets always knew they’d be here. Entering the season, the reigning 2-time MVP Jokic finally had the support he needed, with Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. set to return from lengthy absences. They’ve sat atop the Western Conference since December 20, on the back of the league’s second best home record of 34-7. A first-round matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves proved to be no challenge, as the Nuggets rode a 3-0 series lead to an eventual 4-1 victory. Jokic posted four double-doubles and two triple-doubles while matching his career high in playoff points, with a 43 point performance in Game 4. In the second round, a fearsome matchup against the Phoenix Suns awaited, with a super team of Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton set to spoil the Nuggets party. While Durant and Booker certainly caused issues, the Nuggets were able to take advantage of the lack of depth in Phoenix, and rode a 3-0 home record to a 6-game series win. Murray knocked down shots when it mattered most, and Jokic once again dropped five double-doubles and two triple-doubles, while shattering his playoff career high, dropping 53 points in Game 4. The depth surrounding the Serbian superstar is certainly helpful. However, if the Nuggets are to oust the Lakers, Jokic will need to once again be the best player on the court.

This is a mouthwatering matchup. The Lakers are a team filled with championship experience, and are searching for their 18th title, while the Nuggets are looking for the franchise’s first Finals appearance, with no title winners on their active roster. The story of these teams is similar, as they’ve gone a combined 12-0 at home in the postseason. The Lakers have been able to dominate the glass, securing the most defensive rebounds in the league with 37.0 per game. The lack of second chance points allowed combined with the Lakers 11.9 Turnovers per game has allowed them to reduce their opponents’ valuable extra possessions and kept lethal offensive teams in check. Once you factor in the team's 7.1 blocks and Davis’s 3.2 blocks per game, both of which are league highs, it is no surprise the Lakers find themselves with this opportunity. The Nuggets are poised to take advantage of the Lakers, as they have a balanced attack that can avoid the Lakers big men in the paint. Jokic’s ability to drive and score, or drive and kick is unmatched, and if they catch the Lakers overcommitting in the paint, their second best 37.9% success rate from deep will punish LA. While the Nuggets may not have the same efficiency on the glass, Jokic rarely turns the ball over which has resulted in the Nuggets leading the league with 10.5 turnovers per game. Two responsible teams with potent attacks and stout defenses has left us with an absolute treat of a series, with the Western Conference Championship on the line.

Series Prediction:

In this matchup, as much as it breaks to fade LeBron, I have no choice but to side with the Nuggets. The home court advantage is nothing to scoff at, as it is clear both teams will struggle to steal games on the road. Denver has not only won all 6 games at home, but they have done so in convincing fashion. All but one of their victories have been by 9+ points, with an astonishing average margin of victory of 14.2 points. I simply don’t see the Nuggets dropping games at home, and they will take advantage of their extra game at home. The Lakers have been able to use their size inside to generate easy shots and will certainly test the lackluster defense from Jokic. While James is still the face of the franchise, it has been Davis who has done most of the offensive work. His post game will force the Nuggets to double team him down low, but the Lakers haven’t been able to consistently knock down 3-point shots on the road, shooting just 33.4% from deep in the regular season. The supporting cast has stepped up admirably, but any reduction is offensive efficiency will result in an automatic Nuggets offense building substantial leads. As anti-climactic as it is, I expect the home team to win most, if not all games this series, and for the Nuggets to prevail in 7 games.

Pick: Denver Nuggets in 7 games.

Best Bets:

The Nuggets are -155 favorites to advance while the Lakers are coming back at +135. While a bet on the Nuggets to advance is certainly tempting, I can’t get behind this price. I was all over the Nuggets at +110 to advance past Phoenix, but in the favorite role, I’m forced to stay away. Odds of +135 for the Lakers to prevail is certainly a juicy price, but I’ll look elsewhere for value.

The first bet will be on the total games, as I expect a long series from these two fearsome rosters. A price tag of -200 on Over 5.5 Games is one I’m willing to pay, as a 4-1 outcome for either team feels like a stretch. There are no serious advantages that will result in consistent beatdowns, and this series certainly goes to 6+ games at 66% of the time.

The second bet is not the greatest odds, but I’ll take the Nuggets to win in exactly 7 games at +350. The home form of both teams leads me to expect a hard-fought series, and when the two teams square off for a Game 7 in Denver, it will be the Nuggets that prevail at this juicy price.

Finally, I’m loving the value on Michael Porter Jr. to lead the series in 3’s at +260. Jamal Murray is coming in as the favorite at +110, but it will be the Nugget’s third option that consistently drains it from deep. Murray found success getting inside the arc against the Suns, and I expect Porter Jr. to stay on the 3-point line, ready for open looks from Murray and Jokic’s playmaking. Both players sank 14 3’s against the Suns, and the juicy odds on Porter Jr. makes this prop a must bet.

Pick: Lakers vs Nuggets Over 5.5 games -200

Pick: Denver Nuggets win 4-3 +350

Pick: Most 3’s in the series- Micheal Porter Jr. +260

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