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Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 5/2/2023

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Golden State Warriors series predictions LeBron James

One of the greatest rivalries in the modern NBA gets underway again as LeBron James and the Lakers take on Steph Curry and the Warriors. LeBron is searching for his 5th ring and his 11th Finals appearance, but taking down the Warriors will be no easy task. Despite the fact he’s 38 years old, LeBron is still hungry for glory with the Lakers. Across the court, the trio of Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, are entering the twilight of their careers. The defending champs would love nothing more than to add 5th trophy to their mantle.

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Los Angeles Lakers:

It’s a miracle the Lakers are here. A little over 2 months ago, the Lakers were in 13th place, with a +200 price tag attached to their playoff qualification. However, a 20-9 record since, including a play-in victory and a 4-2 series win over Memphis, has them among the final four teams in the West. There isn’t a hotter team in the NBA. And despite their low seed, the Lakers are undoubtedly among the Western Conference elite.

To give credit where credit is due, the Lakers head office did an immaculate job at bringing LeBron and Anthony Davis a competent supporting cast. In the series against Memphis, the Lakers had a different leading scorer in 5 of the 6 matchups. The depth surrounding LeBron is not something he has seen throughout his career, and as he winds down, his effectiveness is reduced.

To make things clear, we are talking about a Top 2, if not the Top 1 greatest player of all time. He is slowing down with age, but he still averaged 28.9 PPG on 50% from the field with 6.8 Assists per game. The duo of LeBron and Davis is among the best in the league. And when both players are healthy, there is no ceiling for the Lakers.

D’Angelo Russell has transitioned magnificently into the Lakers squad. The former Timberwolves star has scored 17.4 PPG and has been lethal from behind the arc, sinking 41.4% of his three-point attempts in the 17 games in the Lakers uniform. Once you factor in the shooting presence of Austin Reaves, the Lakers suddenly have the weapons to properly spread the floor and allow their star players to shine.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors were pushed to 7 games, but ultimately prevailed against the new blood Sacramento Kings. After dropping the first two games in Sacramento, the Warriors were suddenly in an unfamiliar position. They were behind in a series and were forced to play a mistake free game. They won the next 2 home games and shocked the Kings on the road to take a 3-2 series lead. After being unable to close it out at home in Game 6, the Warriors overcame a halftime deficit to ultimately walk away with a 20-point game 7 victory.

Steph Curry is one of the truly unstoppable players. His ball handling skills and shot creation ability makes him one of the toughest guards in the league, as demonstrated by his 50-point Game 7 performance. If his defender comes in close to defend out the jump shot, Curry has no issues with blowing right by and finishing at the rim. His willingness to pull up from several feet behind the arc keeps defenders honest, and the 35-year-old has a seemingly endless gas tank. His 33.8 PPG against the Kings was a critical factor in tilting the series in Golden State’s favor.

The second ‘Splash Brother’ will need to improve if the Warriors are planning on defending their championship. Klay Thompson was a non-factor against the Kings, averaging just 20.5 PPG on 35% from deep. While Curry was able to compensate for Thompson’s cold streak, Thompson is on the court for his shot making abilities and will need to start draining shots consistently.

The X factor for Golden State is the venue. In the regular season, the Warriors went 33-8 at home, compared to just 11-30 on the road. Despite their 6th seed status, they will have home court advantage in Round 2, and will be hoping they can replicate their 2-2 road form in Round 1 throughout the postseason. Their inability to win road games has been the driving force for their lowest playoff seed since 2015, but counting the Warriors out is never a wise move.

Series Prediction:

We are in for a treat. Anytime LeBron and Curry square off in the postseason, incredible things happen. These two met in the Finals 4 straight years between 2015 and 2018, with Curry prevailing with 3 rings compared to Lebron’s 1. While Lebron’s may have been the most incredible comebacks in NBA history, he is still hungry to even up the score against his longtime rival.

While the spotlight will be on LeBron and Curry, they will not be the difference-makers in this series. For the Warriors, Thompson will need to step up, and Green will need to keep making a defensive impact. What Curry will deliver is beyond consistent. And in order to tilt the scales in their favor, the rest of the Warriors will have to deliver. Across the court, the rest of the Lakers have been admirable, but will need to keep their foot on the gas throughout the series. Reaves, Russell, and Rui Hachimura all led the Lakers in scoring in a game against Memphis, and the scoring bursts from depth players is what allowed the Lakers to close out the series.

In this matchup, I’ll be taking the Lakers in 7 games. The emphatic finish to the regular season, coupled with the road struggles for the Warriors, tilts the scales ever so slightly in their favor. The Lakers won all three home games in the first round, and I don’t anticipate the Warriors coming into Crypto.com arena and taking down the Lakers. As long as the Lakers steal one game on the road, this series should be theirs for the taking.

Pick: LA Lakers in 7 Games

Best Bets:

The Lakers are coming in as +130 underdogs to advance, while the Warriors are bouncing back at -150. Considering I expect the Lakers to advance, I’m all over their +130 price tag. They have proven they deserve to be in the Western Conference Finals and will be able to take advantage of the Warriors turnovers. One of the reasons for their poor road record is they are dead last in turnovers, and the valuable extra possessions the Lakers will have will be too much to overcome.

The second bet of the series is the Over 5.5 Games at -190. The Lakers are unlikely to win 2 of the first 3 road games. And unless the Warriors hold home court, and split the first 2 road contests, this over will cash. While I’d like to go bold and take the Over 6.5 Games at +200, this bet feels far safer. A monumental second round series will not be ending early, and a -190 price tag is a reasonable one to swallow.

Finally, I have no choice but to take advantage of the generous +525 odds on the Lakers in 7. While banking on LA to close out the series on the road is not ideal, the +525 odds attached make it well worthwhile. The NBA wants a stunning finish to this series, and a colossal performance from LeBron would likely be enough to cement his GOAT status. Of course, with odds like these it’s unlikely to cash, but we only need a +525 prop to cash 17% of the time to be profitable.

Pick: La Lakers to advance +130

Pick: Over 5.5 Games -190

Pick: LA Lakers in 7 game +525

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