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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Series Predictions with Betting Odds

by Spencer Toth - 5/1/2023

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics series predictions James Harden

The two Eastern Conference heavyweights square off in the semifinals, as one of their playoff runs will fall short. The Celtics will be looking to become the first back-to-back Eastern Conference champion since 2018. The duo of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown keeps on improving, and there is no ceiling on what this group of players can achieve. The 76ers were dealt devastating injury news, as the MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid will likely miss Game 1, and has no timetable for a return. James Harden has the potential to carry this team, but without his co-star, the 76ers may once again limp out early and fail to reach the Conference Finals for the 22nd straight season.

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Boston Celtics:

The Boston Celtics are the overwhelming favorites to not only take down the 76ers, but the NBA championship. They are +125 to lift a record setting 18th championship and have a pretty straightforward path to the Finals. Now that the Bucks are eliminated and Embiid is injured, there are no legitimate threats standing in their way from a second straight Finals appearance.

The Celtics 57-win campaign was their best since 2009, as they were able to stay healthy, avoid slumps, and consistently put wins on the board. Tatum is the star of this franchise. And while it certainly feels as though he’s been in the league for decades, he’s still just 25 years old. He set career highs in PPG (30.1), Rebounds (8.8) and Assists (4.6) in his 6th season with the C’s. At 6-foot-8, Tatum has the length to make his defenders' lives very difficult, and still has the speed and footwork to remain successful in the open court.

While Tatum is certainly critical for the Celtics success, Jaylen Brown is just as important. Brown may not have the same frame as Tatum, but at just 6-foot-5 possessing a 7-foot wingspan, he makes full use of his strengths. His 26.6 PPG is also a career high, and the duo looks poised to replicate their Finals run from just one year ago.

In the first round, the Celtics dispatched the Hawks in 6 games but didn’t always look convincing. They eventually got it done, and all of their victories came by 8+ points, but it still felt as though it wasn’t the smooth sailing first round that was expected. Considering they finished the regular season with a top 3 defensive and offensive rating, they will never be truly out of a game, or series, throughout the postseason.

Philadelphia 76ers

The 76ers were the only first round winners to sweep their opponents, as they made quick work of the Nets. They limited the Nets to just 92.5PPG and flexed their defensive muscles when their offense wasn’t ticking. After locking up the 3rd seed, the 76ers knew they would be unlikely to have home court advantage past the first round and were likely going to be underdogs for the remainder of the playoffs.

Joel Embiid is the heavy favorite to take down his first career MVP award, after appearing to narrowly edge out Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo down the home stretch. The Cameroon native scored 33.1 PPG on 54.8% shooting while hauling in 10.2 Rebounds to go with it. In the paint, there are few men who can slow the big man down, and often resort to fouling him to get the job done. His 85.7 Free throw percentage has allowed him to sink 10.1 free throws per game, and he does not mind picking up valuable points at the line.

Before we go any further, the elephant in the room must be addressed. Embiid sat out Game 4 of the first round and is doubtful to suit up for Game 1 of this series with a sprained knee. Without their superstar, the 76ers title odds have been shattered, and they find themselves at +1200 to lift the trophy. If Embiid is forced to sit for a majority of this series, the 76ers will be hard pressed to compete. While James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, and Tobias Harris are more than capable of staying competitive, they are a tier below the talent the Celtics are rolling out. And without their leading point scorer, they will struggle to keep up.

Regardless of Embiid’s status, James Harden will need to step up. While Harden is not shooting as frequently as he used to, his 21.0PPG is his lowest since 2012, he is still critical to his team's offensive success. He averaged a league high 10.7 Assists per game in the regular season and provides outside scoring, a role Embiid cannot fill. If Harden can turn back the clock and find a scoring touch to go along with his playmaking abilities, the 76ers may be able to steal a game or two before Embiid returns.

The 76ers are a well-rounded basketball team, but one stat sticks out like a sore thumb. Including the playoffs, they are 58-28 this year, however, they are just 40-44-2 in the first half. They routinely dig themselves holes and are forced to put together massive second halves to compensate. Against teams like the Houston Rockets, this strategy may still result in wins. However, playoff caliber teams are not eager to throw away big first half leads. A weak Brooklyn offense may not have been able to punish the 76ers, but they will need to buck this trend immediately if they plan on a deep playoff run.

Series Predictions:

It’s a real shame injuries may decide this one. This matchup has been all but locked in as the second-round tilt since mid-February, and NBA fans may never get to see how these two teams truly square off. All hope is not lost, as Embiid may be able to suit back up in the middle of the series, but his effectiveness may not be the same. When both these teams are at their best, I would’ve predicted the 76ers to walk away victorious. The Celtics simply have no one to guard Embiid. While Tatum has the length, he doesn’t have the strength to prevent Embiid from walking him down into the paint. Robert Williams is certainly more than capable of preventing easy layups, but in the open court he lacks the footwork to keep up with Embiid, who has added the mid-range to his game. If Embiid is back in Game 3, even in a 0-2 hole, the 76ers will be in with a fighting chance. Talented defender Marcus Smart will be tasked with limiting Harden. And without Embiid, the Celtics defense will be able to slow down a potent 76ers offense.

For the Celtics offense, the gaping hole Harden leaves on defense will certainly be the target. Harden has been criticized not just for his defensive abilities, but his workrate throughout his career. While Marcus Smart and Derrick White may not be the All-Star caliber offensive players capable of torching Harden, they are still averaging 11.5 and 12.4 PPG, respectively.

In this series, I am forced to side with the Celtics. The absence of Embiid for even 1-2 games will be too much for the 76ers to overcome, and they will find themselves quickly in an 0-2 hole. Games 3 and 4 in Philly will likely decide this series, as if the 76ers can hold home court, it will be all to play for in the final games. However, I expect the Celtics to split Games 3 and 4, then wrap it up before it gets to 7 games. There is an off-putting feeling surrounding Embiid, and I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see him suit back up this season. It’ll be in 5 or 6 games, and I’m leaning towards the Celtics replicating their first round series and taking down the 76ers in 6 games.

Prediction: Boston Celtics in 6 Games

Best Bets:

The lines are out for this matchup, and the Celtics are a whopping -500 favorites to advance while the 76ers are bouncing back at +375. I will not be playing the straight series line on either of these teams, as while I expect the Celtics to win, lines like these aren’t profitable in the long run.

The first bet will be at -210 odds, for the Celtics (-1.5) Games. It is unlikely the Celtics will let this one get to 7 games, and they will be eager to close the 76ers out as soon as possible, before letting Embiid get any more healing opportunities. The odds of -210 are certainly hard to swallow, but this bet hits at least 66% of the time, ensuring we are profitable.

The second bet is a niche one, but I’m loving this value. Correct score after Game 4 to be 3-1 Celtics at +125. The chances the Celtics hold home court advantage, then split the games in Philly, do not justify these odds, and I am surprised to see it at plus money. While a sweep or a 2-2 tie is certainly possible, The Celtics have the talent to put this series in a stranglehold heading home for Game 5. At +125 odds, it’s too good to pass up.

Pick: Boston Celtics (-1.5) Games -210

Pick: Boston Celtics lead 3-1 After 4 games, +125

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