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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 3/21/2024

by Spencer Toth - 3/21/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Denver Nuggets Nikola Jokic

You’ve found the right place to get all your NBA betting needs, as Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single midweek New York Knicks game this season. While we will not always favor the Knicks, by using in-depth knowledge on the team, and the league as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the year.

On Monday night, the Knicks improved to 3-0 on their current road trip, beating the Golden State Warriors 119-112. Josh Hart posted his third triple double in the last 8 games, as New York’s offense came to life. Jalen Brunson was his usual self, scoring 34 points, while Miles McBride scored a career high 29 points in 47 minutes of action. The Knicks bench got outscored 60-15, but shooting struggles from the Warriors starters cost Golden State a valuable victory. OG Anunoby was a late scratch, and the defensive powerhouse will once again be sitting out tonight’s contest.

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From a betting perspective, we had a profitable 2-1 night. We took the Knicks on the spread (+5.5) and the moneyline (+170), both of which cashed with ease. Our lone loss was on Under 211.5 points, but that play was made with the assumption Anunoby would be suiting up. The Knicks defense gets worse without him, and their offense gets better, hence the unexpected high scoring contest on Monday. 


Tonight, the Knicks (41-27) wrap up their 4-game road trip with a trip to Denver to take on the Nuggets (48-21). The Denver Nuggets are the defending champions, and they are poised to go on another deep playoff run. They’ve been able to stay healthy all season long, as their top 8 scorers have missed a combined 31 games this year. That’s one of the lowest totals in the league. And when the talent Denver has gets the time to build chemistry, it’s not surprising to see the reigning champions at the top of the standings once again.

It certainly helps the Nuggets to have their starting rotation available most nights. However, the reality of the situation is that as long as one man is healthy, Denver will always have a chance to win. Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to capture his 3rd MVP award this season, as the Serbian big man has been borderline unstoppable this season. His 26 PPG, 12.3 Rebounds, and 9.0 Assists have him inside the top 15 in the league in points, and the top 5 for the other two categories. His offensive domination is stunning to watch, as his ability to drive to the paint, draw the double team, and find the open man, is unlike anyone else in the league. Not only that, but his knack for hitting tough shots late in the shot clock ensures the superstar is reliable in almost any situation.

New York will have their hands full trying to contain the Nuggets, but Isiah Hartenstein has the defensive skills to keep him in check. Hartenstein does a fantastic job at defending the league's best big men without sending them to the free throw line. New York may not have the same size on the interior with Robinson and Randle still out. However, as long as Hartenstein keeps his feet moving, Jokic will be in for a tough test. The absence of Anunoby will make a tough test even tougher for the Knicks, as they will once again be relying on a big night from Brunson and for their role players to step up defensively.

In tonight’s matchup, the Knicks are a whopping 9.5-point underdog, with a 207.5 point total available. Denver are the rightful favorites, as they have the health and skill advantages, and the game will be on their home court. The wild card the Nuggets employ to challenge teams in the paint is Aaron Gordon, and he will be on full display tonight. The luxury of having Jokic at center allows Denver to play a bruising power forward like Gordon on a consistent basis. Knick fans will be aware of how effective that can be, as it’s very reminiscent of Randle, but they still won’t have an answer. Denver will punish New York down low, and while the 3-ball could always level the playing field, the Nuggets will be able to defend home court, and get the win. However, the spread is a completely different story. New York has won all 4 road games in the month of March. And while they may see that streak snapped, I expect them to get the cover. The Knicks, even with their injuries, do not deserve to be nearly double-digit underdogs against anyone in the NBA, and we’ll be taking a shot with the free buckets. New York has offensive weapons like Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo, but it will be their grittiness on the defensive end that makes the difference. The aura surrounding this team is different, and they truly believe they have what it takes to shut down the league’s best offenses, regardless of who is on the court. I’m sure Denver will build a double-digit lead at some point. However, for the first bet of the evening, we’ll take New York (+9.5) to keep this in single digits when it’s all said and done.

The total of 207.5 points is the first time this season a Nuggets game has been under 215 points, as the oddsmakers are clearly expecting a defensive battle. While that would usually be a solid choice against the Knicks, without OG Anunoby in the lineup, I will happily jump on the Over at this rock-bottom price. The Knicks play at a faster tempo without Anunoby, their offense is far more fluid, and they are vulnerable on the defensive end. It’s daunting to take the Over on a team that has gone Under in 11 of their last 13 games, but the line is simply too low.  I honestly expected this total to be in the high 210’s, and am absolutely thrilled to be getting this line, considering the lineups. There is no reason to doubt Denver’s ability to put up 100+ points, as they’ve done in all but 2 home games this year. And New York should be able to do the same. They absolutely torched the Nuggets in a 122-84 drubbing earlier this year and will be able to also do their part in ticking the total over. Lock it in for the second bet of the night.

Pick: New York Knicks (+9.5) 1 Unit

Pick: Knicks vs Nuggets Over 207.5 4 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 11-4

Spread Record: 21-16

Total Record: 14-11

Player Props Record: 18-30

Total: 64-61

Up 5.7 Units

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