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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 2/27/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/2/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Miami Heat Jimmy Butler

You’ve found the right place, as Doc’s Sports is the place for all your NBA best bets. This season, we will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game, and providing best bets along the way. This will include moneylines, spreads, totals, and player props. And while we won’t always favor the Knicks, the goal of churning a consistent profit remains.

On Thursday night, the Knicks had their 3-game win streak snapped by the San Antonio Spurs. The Knicks were upset in overtime, falling 130-126, despite a career high 61 points from Jalen Brunson. His 61 points were offset by an immaculate 40-20 game from Victor Wembanyama, and the Knicks were upset outright as double-digit road favorites. It was the first time since December 2023 that the Knicks gave up 130+ points, and it was unfortunate to see Brunson’s incredible outburst lead to a defeat.

From a betting perspective, we had a profitable 1-1 night. Our biggest bet of the evening was on Isiah Hartenstein to stay Under 8.5 rebounds. He finished with only 4 boards, as we correctly identified the lack of line movement from the bookies despite the return of Mitchell Robinson eating into Hartenstein’s minutes. Our loss was on the Knicks (-10), which never even came close to cashing.

The Knicks suffered another tight loss on Saturday night, losing to the OKC Thunder 113-112. Jalen Williams exploded for 33 points and did just enough to get the Thunder a much-needed win to stay atop the Western Conference. Brunson scored 30 points and missed a game-winning shot as time expired at Madison Square Garden.

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Tonight, the Knicks (44-30) will look to get back on track when they head to Miami to take on the Heat (41-33). This is a critical game for both teams, as the Eastern Conference playoff race could not be tighter. Just 3 games separate the 3rd place Cavaliers and the 7th place Heat. And with the Knicks squished in the middle, this will be a high intensity affair in Miami. The Heat have dealt with injury problems all season long, and they are finally getting most of their lineup back for tonight. Other than Tyler Herro, the Heat’s starting lineup and primary rotation players are all good to go for the first time in months.

Miami relies on their 5th rated defense to find success, and it has been a very effective strategy over the last few seasons. Miami may not be consistently challenging for the top seed in the East. However, when the games start getting more valuable, Miami usually finds a way to get it done. They’ve made a pair of upset runs to the NBA Finals in the last 4 seasons. And while they weren’t able to lift the championship, they have proven their credentials. Jimmy Butler plays like he doesn’t care for a majority of the season before turning it up down the stretch. With just 8 games to go in the regular season, this is exactly when we would usually see Miami rip off a win streak. Miami may not have the most efficient offense, but they make up for it by rarely turning over the ball and clamping down on the defensive end.

New York is still not at full health, as OG Anunoby and Julius Randle remain out, and it’s starting to look like that will not be changing in the foreseeable future. Josh Hart openly told the media yesterday that the team is prepared to finish the season with their current lineup, which is not what Knicks fans will want to hear after the promising season they’ve had. Jalen Brunson is more than capable of leading this team on a deep playoff run, and seeding couldn’t be more critical for the Knicks. It will probably take 6+ wins in their final 8 games to secure the 3rd seed, which would ensure they don’t tangle with the Celtics until the conference finals. New York suffered a pair of tight losses. And against an equally defensive team like the Heat, it will be an absolute battle for every point tonight.

A healthy Miami lineup has the shooters to punish the Knicks, but they lack the size to take care of business on the glass. The Knicks are one of the best rebounding teams in the league, and the return of offensive rebound vacuum Mitchell Robinson has made them even better. Rebounding is a category the Heat have struggled with all season long, and the Knicks will not need a second invitation to scoop up those valuable extra possessions. While Bam Adebayo does a good job down low, the Heat forwards don’t help out enough to prevent players like Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo from making an impact. For the first bet of the evening, we will be hitting Josh Hart Double-Double at +155 odds. Hart’s point and rebound lines are both set to 10.5, and I’m expecting a solid night from him on the glass. His ability to rack up double, or even triple doubles on a nightly basis, is like few other players his size. His effort on both ends of the court will take the Heat by surprise and will see him get his fair share of rebounds. While the points may be a concern, Hart has collected 10+ points in 13 of the last 18 games he collected 10+ rebounds. If Hart can effectively crash the glass against a flat-footed Heat team, his points will come too.

The spread is set at 3 points in favor of the Heat, and that feels fair. The Knicks are coming off a pair of tight defeats but have been consistent on both ends of the court throughout the season. Meanwhile, Miami is getting healthy again, is at home, and has shown their dominant defense can turn mediocre offensive performances into wins.

Rather than target the spread, we will be heading to the total, which is sitting at 207 points. This is a low total for an NBA game, but it is still not low enough. Both of these teams can play at a snail’s pace and are perfectly content to engage in a defensive battle. The Knicks and Heat have both seen sub-210 totals not even get close to being touched this season. And when the two defensive forces collide, the Under will be the way to go.

Pick: Josh Hart Double Double +145 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs Heat Under 207 2 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 11-4

Spread Record: 23-18

Total Record: 15-12

Player Props Record: 19-31

Total: 68-65

Up 8.2 Units

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