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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/25/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/25/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Jalen Brunson

You’ve found the right place for all your New York Knicks playoff betting needs. Throughout the regular season, we analyzed every single Knicks game, and gave out best bets along the way. Now that the postseason has rolled around, the stakes are even higher.

In Game 2, the Knicks took a 2-0 series lead over the Philadelphia 76ers. They secured a controversial 104-101 victory at Madison Square Garden, defending their home court before the series shifts to Philadelphia. The Knicks found themselves down six points with 20 seconds to play in regulation but snatched a victory from the claws of defeat. The Knicks drained a crucial 3-pointer, before forcing a turnover on the inbound pass from Tyrese Maxey. In the postgame, 76ers head coach Nick Nurse was furious over the lack of a timeout granted prior to the inbound pass from Maxey. Additionally, the Knicks got a fortunate non-call after some serious contact from Jalen Bruson on Maxey with 17 seconds to go.

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Despite the controversy, the Knicks executed their game plan well. They were once again able to limit the scoring from the 76er players not named Maxey or Joel Embiid and leaned on their strong defense to pull out a crucial victory. Maxey and Embiid scored a combined 69 of the 101 76er points, after scoring 62 of their 104 points from Game 1. The 76ers desperately need their role players to step up offensively, or this series could be all but over. For the Knicks, all 5 of their starters hit double digits in scoring, with Brunson’s 24 points leading the way for New York. The Knicks ability to spread the ball on offense and clamp down on defense is what won them the first two games of the series, but the job is far from done as they head to Philadelphia for Games 3 and 4.

New York will be missing Julius Randle for the entire postseason, but there is true belief that they can win without their 3-time All Star. Brunson has emerged as one of the true elite guards in the league. His 31.6 PPG since February 1 trails only Luka Doncic, and his consistency on the offensive end has elevated the Knicks postseason expectations. They were always a solid defensive team. However, now that they have an offensive superstar, they have become an incredibly hard matchup for anyone in the league.

The Knicks brought in OG Anunoby midway through the year, and his arrival, coupled with Bojan Bogdanovic’s production off the bench, gives them a solid 8-man rotation. Anunoby is one of the best wing defenders in the league, and he is exactly the type of player built for a Tom Thibodeau defense. He has active hands in the open court, and his rotations ensure there is rarely a man left open from deep. His offensive production was hindered by a lingering elbow injury in his shooting arm. However, after a month-long absence for midseason surgery, he appears to have regained his form.

The Knicks will feel fortunate to take a 2-0 lead to Philadelphia. And if they can split the two road games 1-1, they will put themselves in a fantastic position to advance to the second round. For the second straight game, they outrebounded the 76ers, turning those valuable extra possessions into critical points on the board. Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson have done an immaculate job at limiting Embiid’s presence on the glass. Hartenstein especially has transformed into one of the better defensive centers, and his ability to defend without fouling allows him to stay out of foul trouble and stay on the court for extended stretches.

If the Knicks are to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the series, they will need to continue to play solid defense. New York isn’t going to be dropping 120+ points on a nightly basis, so they will need to lean on their defense to continue picking up wins. They’ve done a good job at limiting the 76ers quality scoring chances. And as long as that continues, there is no reason New York should allow the 76ers to make a series comeback.

For tonight’s pivotal Game 3, the Knicks are coming in as underdogs for the first time in the series. They are 5-point road underdogs, as the bookmakers are expecting the 76ers to pick up a win on their home court. While it’s hard to argue with the Knicks being underdogs after their fortunate Game 2 victory, this spread still feels a little bit too wide. The Knicks and 76ers will be close throughout the series, with the largest lead being 14 points for either team through the first two games. The 76ers will be unable to pull away in this one thanks to the lockdown perimeter defense from New York, and we will happily be scooping up the free buckets with New York. Head coach Tom Thibodeau will not relent with his defensive pressure, and the Knicks clearly want to win these close games more than Philadelphia. I won’t be touching the tantalizing +180 moneyline, but am confident New York will be able to at least keep this Game 3 encounter close.

For the second bet of the evening, we will be looking at the total. The 202.5 total is understandably low, but this feels like an overreaction from the first two games. Both of the previous games went over this total, yet the oddsmakers have been consistently shifting the total lower as the series progresses. Philadelphia should see their role players regress back to the mean from behind the arc, which will allow them to reach triple digits on their home court. For the Knicks, the 76ers have no answer for their balanced scoring, and it’s hard to imagine either team being held to double digits. The 202.5 total will only need a few hot stretches to get over the line, and I fully expect these two teams to get over this line.

Finally, we are going to be targeting Donte DiVincenzo’s three pointers. The line is set to a flat 3 triples, with Over 2.5 3’s coming in with -190 odds, and Over 3.5 3’s offering a +135 payout. The 76ers have been happy to double team Jalen Brunson all series long, allowing DiVincenzo to get more than his fair share of open looks from behind the arc. The marksmen didn't need a second invitation to chuck it up from deep and cleared both of these lines in Game 2. He’s scored Over 2.5 3’s in a whopping 34 off his last 40 games, scoring Over 3.5 3’s in 26 of those 40 games. These are very reasonable prices for the Knicks most consistent deep ball threat, and he shouldn’t have any problems getting over at least one of these lines in Game 3.

Pick: New York Knicks (+5) 2 Units

Pick: Knicks vs 76ers Over 202.5 3 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 2.5 3’s -190 4 Units

Pick: Donte DiVincenzo Over 3.5 3’s +135 1 Unit

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 12-5

Spread Record: 24-20

Total Record: 15-15

Player Props Record: 20-35

Total: 71-75

Down 5.6 Units

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