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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/30/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/30/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Philadelphia 76ers Jalen Brunson

Doc Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks playoff game and providing best bets along the way. By using in-depth knowledge on the Knicks, and the league as a whole, we will be able to ensure positive results on a daily basis.

The Knicks dropped their first game of the series on Thursday night, as the 76ers were able to slash their lead in half by taking Game 3. The game was filled with controversy, as while the 76ers earned their hard-fought victory, the tempers boiled over throughout the contest. Joel Embiid scored 50 points, but his method of scoring was harshly criticized. Embiid needed 21 free throw attempts to push the 76ers to victory, compared to the 19 attempts the entire Knicks team were awarded. To make matters worse, there is a real argument that Embiid should have been ejected in the first quarter. The Cameroon native was responsible for one of the most dangerous plays I’ve ever witnessed. Embiid was knocked to the ground. And when he didn’t get a foul call, he grabbed Mitchell Robinson’s legs while he was shooting a jump shot. This play was simply a flagrant 1 penalty, but it could have been more, and forced Robinson to sit out Game 4 from being injured on the play.

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In Game 4, the Knicks got some revenge, and restored their sizable two game lead over Philadelphia. Embiid was back to his usual antics, but it was not enough to overcome 47 points from Jalen Brunson. Brunson’s 47-point, 10 assist performance was the most in Knicks playoff history, and there is no doubt Brunson can lead this stingy Knicks defense to a deep playoff run. The Knicks were able to navigate their foul troubles, as Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein both finished with 5 fouls. Hartenstein got baited by Embiid by the same rip-through move on 3 occasions in the 3rd quarter, with all 5 of his personal fouls coming in that frame. Precious Achiuwa played only 10 minutes in the first 3 games of the series and stepped up admirably with Hartenstien forced to take a seat in the latter stages of the game. He was able to slow down Embiid in his 17 minutes of action and was desperately needed with Robinson sidelined with an Embiid-caused injury.

Tonight, the Knicks look to close out the series in front of their home crowd, in what will be a rocking Madison Square Garden. The hardest playoff game to win is when the opponent is on the brink of elimination, and it will be no easy task to eliminate the reigning MVP from the postseason. New York will need to continue to clamp down on the defensive end, as the 76ers will be going down swinging, figuratively and literally.

The Knicks have been able to snatch a lead in this series thanks to their depth. For most NBA teams, if someone like Julius Randle went down with injury, the playoffs would be a mere formality before a long offseason. New York’s solid coaching and elite defense has allowed them to stay competitive, and the next man has stepped up when needed. Josh Hart’s effort cannot be ignored, as he’s hauled in 13+ rebounds in 3/4 games this series and scored 67 points. His willingness to crash the offensive glass has given the Knicks several extra possessions on a nightly basis. Additionally, the 6 '4 guard is capable of guarding anyone on the court, even Joel Embiid. The Knicks acquired OG Anunoby in a midseason deal, and he’s anchored an already stellar defense. His elbow appears to be healthy once again, and he’s been a massive impact on both ends of the court.

In tonight’s game, Brunson will need to continue his stellar form. The role players for New York have been a welcome addition, but this team will still only go as far as Brunson can take them. He’s been able to easily outscore Tyrese Maxey on the perimeter, as Brunson’s shifty dribbles often result in an easy pull up shot. If not, he can blow past his defender and score an easy layup. On the other side of the court, the 76ers haven’t been getting enough help from their depth. Kelly Oubre’s 19 points in Game 4 was the most from a 76er not named Embiid or Maxey in the series, and the lack of depth scoring has cost Philadelphia mightily. They have been solid on the defensive end, while Embiid and Maxey have done their jobs. However, a team can’t be expected to win with only two legitimate scoring threats.

The spread is set to 4 points in favor of the Knicks, and it’s hard to look past the home team. New York has clearly been the better team this series. And in front of their home crowd, they’ll be able to eliminate the 76ers. The spread is marginal, with 46 of the 50 Knicks wins coming by 4+ points in the regular season. Lay the points.

The total is the line that intrigues me the most. The 203.5 total wasn’t eclipsed last game, but the teams soared over this threshold in the 3 games prior. In an elimination game, the defense will be even stingier, but this total is still simply too low. The 76ers will be able to continue to lean heavily on their stars, allowing them to hit triple digits. For the Knicks, they move the ball much better on their home court, and the role players will step up, and drain their open looks all game long.

For the third and final bet of the night, we’ll be targeting Josh Hart’s double-double line at -185 odds. Hart will not need a second invitation to crash the glass on both ends of the court, and he should be able to get into double-digit points for the fourth time this series. Hart’s deep ball threat makes him an incredibly tough assignment, and even though we are laying some juice, this is still a fair price for Hart to get his third double-double of the postseason.

Pick: New York Knicks (-4) 1 Unit

Pick: Knicks vs 76ers Over 203.5 3 Units

Pick: Josh Hart Double-Double -185 4 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 12-5

Spread Record: 24-21

Total Record: 16-15

Player Props Record: 20-37

Total: 72-78

Down 9.7 Units

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