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Free NBA Picks New York Knicks: Season-Long Handicapping and Specialization 4/4/2024

by Spencer Toth - 4/4/2024

Free NBA picks New York Knicks vs Sacramento Kings Domantas Sabonis

This season, Doc’s Sports will be breaking down every single New York Knicks game and providing best bets along the way. These free picks will not always favor the Knicks. However, by using in-depth knowledge on the team, and the NBA as a whole, we will be able to churn a consistent profit throughout the season.

On Tuesday night, the Knicks dropped their third straight game in a 109-99 defeat to the Miami Heat. Terry Rozier put up the most points he has in a Heat uniform, pouring in 34 points to push the Heat over the line. New York’s defense was solid, but Rozier’s ability to make tough shots late in the shot clock deflated the Knicks after 23 and a half seconds of lockdown D. The Knicks guards put up their usual scoring numbers, but a combined 8 points from Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, Precious Achiuwa, and Mitchell Robinson was not enough from the Knicks interior scoring.

From a betting perspective, we had our first 0-2 night in months. We had the Under 207 points, and the game finished with 208, while Josh Hart failed to cash our plus money prop on his double-double, as he had an off night in Miami. We are still at a nice profit on the season and will be eager to get back in the green tonight.

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The Knicks (44-31) will look to snap their 3-game losing skid when they host the Sacramento Kings (44-31) at Madison Square Garden tonight. These teams have identical records and are both battling for critical postseason positioning down the stretch. The Kings have been dealt with recent injury blows to talented starting guard Kevin Heurter, and 6th man of the year frontrunner Malik Monk. The Knicks have their usual injury concerns to worry about, too, and these two shorthanded teams match up nicely against each other.

The Kings rely on a devastating 2-man game from D’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis to find offensive success. Fox is on track to set a new career high with 26.3 PPG and will also be setting new personal bests in 3 Point percentage (36.0) and Steals (2.0). His impact on both ends of the court cannot be overstated, and the Kentucky graduate is the clear playmaker in Sacramento. Not only can Fox score throughout the game, but after winning the inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award last season, he routinely takes, and makes critical shots with the game on the line. Fox isn’t the only household name in Sacramento, and Domantas Sabonis will need to be at his best to give the Kings a much-needed win in New York. Sabonis has already etched himself in the history books, with 54 consecutive double-doubles, the most since the NBA-ABA merger. He obviously leads the league with his 71 double-doubles and is sitting atop the throne with his 26 triple-doubles. Sabonis has the ability to score the basketball from in tight, and he always keeps his head up as he’s driving to the lane. Admittedly, plenty of Sabonis’s assists come from short passes to open guards, but his ability to stuff the stat sheet on a nightly basis cannot be ignored.

The interior battle between Sabonis against Hartenstein and Robinson will be a treat to watch tonight and will likely dictate the eventual winner of the contest. New York collects plenty of rebounds. And if they can keep Sabonis in check on the offensive glass, they will put themselves in a great position to snap their losing skid. They have the perimeter talent with Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo to mitigate the effectiveness of Fox. And as long as they don’t get bullied down low by Sabonis, I don’t see how the Knicks solid defense loses this one. The Knicks may be missing some of their starters, but they’ve gotten used to it and still have a 16-14 record since January 27 when Anunoby and Randle went down. Meanwhile, the Kings have just been dealt with injuries of their own. And when they come up against a solid Knicks defense, the lack of chemistry created could see them implode. Huerter and Monk were massive parts of the Kings offense, and their absences will see Sacramento struggle to find the hoop on the offensive end. What was once a daunting offense has stumbled in recent weeks, eclipsing 110 points just once in their last 7 games, 5 of which were at home. The Knicks are where they are thanks to their solid defense, and with a measly 3.5 point spread in their favor, they will be confident they can shut down the Kings long enough to pull out the win. Their perimeter offense continues to purr, and the Kings will be unable to keep pace with their recently shorthanded lineup. For the first bet of the night, we will lay the points.

For the second bet of the night, we’ll be taking D’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 Steals at -150 odds. Fox has been active on defense, getting at least 2 steals in 8 of his last 10 games, and 24 of his last 30. This juice is more than reasonable, as Fox has been consistently collecting steals throughout the second half of the season. The Knicks are one of the more responsible teams with the ball, which is why we are only being asked to lay a -150 price, but their tendency to turn the ball over in the last few games has me confident Fox will get his chances to make a defensive impact.

Pick: New York Knicks (-3.5) 3 Units

Pick: D’Aaron Fox Over 1.5 Steals -150 3 Units

2023-24 Season record:

ML Record: 11-4

Spread Record: 23-18

Total Record: 15-13

Player Props Record: 19-32

Total: 68-67

Up 4.2 Units

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