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NBA Props Picks: Expert Handicapping for Tuesday 4/16/2024

by Matt Zitt - 4/16/2024

NBA props picks Anthony Davis Los Angeles Lakers

Brace yourselves for another big night of NBA action with our carefully chosen prop bets. The NBA playoffs start at 7:30 PM ET, with two games taking place, and there is value across the board with player props. The Lakers will take on the Pelicans in the first game, and the Warriors will take on the Kings in the second matchup of the NBA Play-In Tournament. Our picks went 2-3 last week (35-29 overall), and we will try and improve on that mark this week.

Doc’s Sports offers NBA picks for every game on our NBA predictions page.

LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers, OVER 35.5 points + assists (-110)

Playoff LeBron is here, and expect a big performance! These two teams just faced each other in the season finale, and King James went off, posting 28 points, 17 assists, and 11 rebounds. The Pelicans’ defense is mediocre at best, and LeBron will have no issue putting the ball in the bucket and finding teammates for easy scores. He recorded double-digit assists in five out of his last 10 games. In a do-or-die situation, James will have the ball in his hands for most of the time on offense. The Lakers beat the Pelicans in three out of four games this season, and expect LeBron to have his fingerprints all over this game.

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers, OVER 12.5 rebounds (-120)

Just like LeBron, look for Davis to dominate the glass, which will be the recipe to success and advance deeper into the playoffs. Following the All-Star break, Davis averaged 13.8 rebounds and 21 rebound chances per game across 23 total games. During that span, only Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert, Jusuf Nurkic averaged more opportunities than Davis. He gets a favorable matchup against a Pelicans defense that ranked 19th in rebound percentage after the All-Star break. Davis has recorded at least 13 rebounds in 31 of 49 games in which he has played 35+ minutes. As long as he stays out of foul trouble, he should be on the floor for most of the game with every opportunity to get the job done to clear this total.

Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans, OVER 2.5 threes made (-115)

Murphy has the size to give the Lakers perimeter defense a matchup nightmare. He hit three out of six three-point attempts against Los Angeles in their last matchup and has cleared this line in five straight games. In the month of April, Murphy averaged 3.8 threes per game and shot 42.3% from beyond the arc. The Lakers defense has allowed the third-highest three-point percentage since the All-Star break. The Lakers defense should be putting all their effort into stopping Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, and C.J. McCollum, which should allow Murphy to get off shots.

De’Aaron Fox, Sacramento Kings, OVER 28.5 points (-110)

The Kings will be shorthanded tonight against the Golden State Warriors without Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter. Expect Fox to take a high-volume number of shots to compensate for their losses on the hardwood. The reigning Clutch Player of the Year dropped 29, 29, and 39 points in his previous three matchups with Golden State and I am expecting a lot more attempts tonight in a win-or-go home situation. It is a guarantee that Fox will go down swinging and that type of volume makes him very likely to eclipse this total regardless of the final score.

Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors, UNDER 3.5 rebounds (+100)

I love this prop for even money for the four-time champion that plays on the perimeter. Klay does not do a lot these days besides sniping three-pointers and taking mid-range pull-ups. Thompson has cleared this total in only two out of his last nine games and has two games in that span with zero boards. The Warriors will rely on other players to do the dirty work inside against the NBA’s leading rebounder in Domantas Sabonis. I believe it is unlikely that Thompson will finish this game with more than three rebounds.

Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings, OVER 1.5 threes made (-110)

The Kings and Warriors could get into an offensive battle, and I am targeting Barnes’ three-point total. Just like Fox, the injuries to Monk and Huerter will benefit Barnes on the offensive side of the ball. In the last game against the Portland Trail Blazers, Barnes finished with 17 points and hit two out of his four attempts from deep. In four games against Golden State this season, Barnes is shooting 53.8% from beyond the arc and 41.7% from three-point land at home. Barnes will hit at least two three-pointers tonight.

Season total picks: 35-29

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