Sunday Night Football Picks: Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
The fans are in for a treat this Sunday night from Los Angeles when Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and the scintillating Cincinnati passing offense match up with Jim Harbaugh and the LA Chargers shutdown defense.
I've covered a lot of Bengals games lately, and yes, they are frustrating to try to get a read on. Thankfully, we laid off the tempting moneyline and took them with the six points against the Ravens.
The Los Angeles Chargers are catching a lot of flack this week from pundits, who like to point out that their best win is against the Denver Broncos. That’s true. It’s also the best win for either team in this Sunday Night Football matchup.
Cincy has played the better teams closer than LA, but the results are ultimately the same. We can't punish the Chargers for having a fairly easy schedule to this point. At the same time, though, we can't treat the Bengals like any old 4-6 team. They're capable of beating anyone on their best day. They have the best QB/WR combo in the league, but that's only one side of the ball. The Bengals have struggled mightily stopping strong offenses this season. However, are the LA Chargers a strong offense?
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Cincinnati Bengals (+1.5) Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5)
This one opened up at (+2.5) for Cincy, and the sharp money quickly bet it down to 1 yesterday. We've since seen a bit of buyback for LA. We aren't going to see a lot more movement here. So, if you like LA, definitely bet them on the moneyline.
Moneyline Odds
Cincinnati Bengals: +110
LA Chargers: -130
Point Spread: 47
This one is tough. However, right now, I'm leaning toward the over. I already liked the Bengals team total over 23.5 points for even money (+100). In LA's 17-15 loss to the Cardinals, they were held to just 59 yards on the ground, but that didn't stop Justin Herbert from throwing for nearly 350 on 27/39 attempts. Holding Arizona to 17 points is highly impressive, even in a loss. Kyler Murray is special, but he isn't Burrow.
Bengals at Chargers Betting Analysis
Whenever I see a clash of styles in MMA betting, my curiosity can't help itself. Not long after that, my ego kicks in, and I want to be the one who predicts whether one fighter's grappling or the other's striking will be the difference. That is a terrible strategy, and I rarely do it now. We have to constantly be asking ourselves, do I want to be right or do I want to win the bet?
I don't want to be one of those guys ever, especially not for this Sunday night game between the Bengals and the Chargers.
That's why a part of me likes the even money on the Bengals to get to 24 points. Then, I pull up the schedule, and not one team has scored more than 20 against the Chargers. LA is a better team now than when they started the season. After beating up on Carolina, they lost defensive struggles to the Steelers and the Chiefs.
To me, these were learning games. I'm not mad at Harbaugh. Look what he's done since. They've taken care of business against weak teams. More importantly, they've taken care of the ball. Herbert has the league's lowest interception ratio at just 0.4%. The playcalling has been under control. They aren't chucking it deep on both 3rd and 2, and then 4th and 2, like Cincy did in their recent loss to the Ravens.
The win over the Broncos wasn’t a huge surprise, but how the Chargers did it was impressive. That game was never close.
Bengals at Chargers Betting Pick
We will probably see star wideout Tee Higgins return for the Bengals, but to me, that's already baked into the line. People say, oh this offense is a different unit with him. Cool story, but they're still lighting up the scoreboard. Yes, they're better with him, but throwing the ball is their only strength. Their record reflects their imbalance as a team.
Conversely, the record of the Chargers is indicative of their balance. I give the coaching edge to LA. If they can continue to protect the ball, I like their methodical style to limit the time Burrow and Chase have the ball in their hands.
Pick: Chargers Moneyline (-130)
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