2025-26 NBA Season Win Totals Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks

by Spencer Toth - 10/1/2025

NBA season win total predictions Victor Wembanyama San Antonio Spurs

Betting on NBA win totals can be a very rewarding market if you put in the right research. Unlike single-game betting or even NBA championship bets, season-long win totals are rarely victims of bad beats or unlucky bounces. An injury could certainly disrupt a team’s rhythm, but more often than not, if you put enough of the right research in, you will come out on top. We went 18-12 on our win totals last year, and 17-13 the season before. We are looking for a third straight positive season in the NBA. Here are your Over/Under picks for all 30 NBA teams heading into the 2025-26 season.

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Atlanta Hawks: 47.5 Wins

The Hawks made several crafty offseason moves to build a competitive roster around Trae Young. This is a team that has been hovering around the .500 mark for the last four seasons, but this is their chance to vault into the top four in the East. An Eastern Conference lacking legitimate contenders will allow the Hawks to rack up easy wins, and I expect 50+ victories for Atlanta for the first time since 2015. OVER

Boston Celtics: 41.5 Wins

The Celtics lost Kristaps Porzingis and Jrue Holiday in the offseason and will be without Jayson Tatum for most, if not all, of the regular season. Jaylen Brown and Derrick White will keep this team afloat, but expecting a winning record with a shallow, unproven roster is too much to ask. UNDER

Brooklyn Nets: 20.5 Wins

The Brooklyn Nets secured 26 victories last season despite a revolving door of acquisitions and a lack of proven talent on their roster. They traded Cameron Johnson for Michael Porter Jr. in the offseason and have a reliable rotation of nine or ten players. Given the lack of clear talent in the East, this drop in win total doesn’t make sense. OVER

Charlotte Hornets: 26.5 Wins

Injuries disrupted the Hornets' season last year, and we can’t trust LaMelo Ball, among others, to stay healthy this year either. Charlotte didn’t make any big signings in the offseason and will struggle if Ball gets hurt. Their depth has improved, but they will consistently get beaten when their starters face their opponents' best players, and those will be the clutch moments they cannot afford to lose. UNDER

Chicago Bulls: 32.5 Wins

The Bulls have finished in the play-in tournament positions in four straight seasons, but are expected to fall well short this year. However, that may not be the case. The drama surrounding Zach LaVine and the uncertainty around Lonzo Ball are both no longer concerns, and the Bulls can focus on the task at hand. They have a strong starting five, and while they lack the superstar talent to truly compete, this win total is disrespectful. Chicago will flirt with a .500 record this season, and eclipsing 32.5 wins shouldn’t be a problem. OVER

Cleveland Cavaliers: 56.5 Wins

Cleveland is the best team in the East and will dominate the conference this season. No one else has the same combination of depth and top-end talent, and the Cavaliers will be big favorites on a nightly basis. They already proved they can put it all together with a 64-18 record last season, and I see no reason why they can’t come close to that total again this year. OVER

Dallas Mavericks: 41.5 Wins

Kyrie Irving will miss the first half of the season, but the arrival of Cooper Flagg ushers in a new level of optimism for the Dallas fanbase. Flagg and Anthony Davis comprise one of the best frontcourt duos in the league, and this number is a bit too low for a talented Dallas side. Wins won’t come easy in the West, but Dallas should be able to surpass this line en route to a play-in tournament berth. OVER

Denver Nuggets: 54.5 Wins

Denver tried to get better in the offseason, but failed to truly bring Nikola Jokic any fresh talent to work with. The Nuggets will be near the top of the conference once again, but they lack the depth needed to thrive in an 82-game season. Cameron Johnson is an upgrade over Michael Porter Jr, but a crowded Western Conference will prevent Denver from pulling away. 50+ wins for the Nuggets is a realistic target, but 55+ is too much to ask. UNDER

Detroit Pistons: 46.5 Wins

The Pistons shocked everyone with their top-6 seed last season, but are due for some regression this year. Detroit won more than its fair share of close games last season, and I struggle to imagine Cade Cunningham pulling off the same heroics this year, too. Detroit will be good enough for a playoff spot this season, but will fall just short of this total. UNDER

Golden State Warriors: 45.5 Wins

The Warriors are the oldest team in the league, and expecting dominance for an entire season is not realistic. Steph Curry still has plenty to offer at 37 years old, but his eyes are set on another championship, not regular-season success. Signing Al Horford didn’t do much to change this trend, although it will be fun to see his partnership with Draymond Green blossom. The Dubs will be an exciting team this year, but at 45.5 wins, the only choice is UNDER.

Houston Rockets: 52.5 Wins

Kevin Durant is a big signing for the Rockets, but losing Fred VanVleet for the season hasn’t altered this line enough. Durant is unlikely to play all 82 games this year, and the Rockets are missing a veteran presence with VanVleet out of the picture. Their young core will lead them to a top-6 seed, but it won’t be enough to surpass this win total. UNDER

Indiana Pacers: 37.5 Wins

The Cinderella story for the Pacers fell short of a tangible reward last season. Things aren’t expected to get any better either, as the Pacers lost Tyrese Haliburton to injury and Myles Turner to the Bucks. Their front court is shorthanded, and Indiana will struggle without Haliburton in the backcourt. Pascal Siakam and the other stars will be able to put up some wins, but not enough to play meaningful April basketball. UNDER

Los Angeles Clippers: 47.5 Wins

Off-court issues aside, this win total is well within reach for the Clippers. Assuming Kawhi doesn’t get suspended, which it looks like he won’t, the Clippers will lock up 50+ wins for the third straight season. Their aging core knows that they need these regular-season wins to make the playoffs, and the addition of Chris Paul will keep their bench unit competitive. OVER

Los Angeles Lakers: 49.5 Wins

The Lakers have the best player of all time with the superstar of the next generation on the court together. LeBron James and Luka Doncic will be able to win more often than they lose, as this is a team determined to make waves in the West. As long as both stars can stay healthy for 70+ games this season, 50+ wins are well within reach. OVER

Memphis Grizzlies: 40.5 Wins

Has everyone forgotten how good the Grizzlies can be? Memphis was one of the top teams in the West two years ago before injuries derailed its campaign last season. This is a very moderate win total for a roster with their kind of talent, and I expect this to be a breakout year for Ja Morant. They added Kentavious Caldwell-Pope in the offseason, and the Grizzlies have the potential to be the top offensive unit in the league. That doesn’t sound like a .500 team to me. OVER

Miami Heat: 37.5 Wins

Tyler Herro missing the first few months of the season is a massive blow for a team still figuring out life without Jimmy Butler. The Heat don’t have anyone they can give the ball to in the closing stages of close games, and this has the makings of a miserable season in Miami. Maybe a new star emerges or Bam Adebayo can hold down the fort, but more often than not, the Heat will be on the wrong side of final scores. UNDER

Milwaukee Bucks: 42.5 Wins

Giannis Antetokounmpo is still in Milwaukee, and the Bucks are unlikely to trade him in the middle of the season. With that in mind, this is a very attainable win total. Antetokounmpo is the most dominant player in the league and will be able to single-handedly carry his team to victory. Myles Turner and Bobby Portis will lock down the paint, while the Bucks find a way to reach the postseason while just passing this total. It’s not the most confident pick of the day, but the way to go is OVER.

Minnesota Timberwolves: 49.5 Wins

Minnesota reached the Western Conference Finals in back-to-back seasons, yet has still not been given a 50+ win total this year. The Timberwolves have the perfect combination of superstar offense, lockdown defense, and depth on their roster. OVER

New Orleans Pelicans: 30.5 Wins

The Pelicans are a team that can compete if healthy, but they have been banged up for the last two seasons. It is hard to trust the Pelicans against a difficult Western Conference foe, and even an allegedly motivated Zion Williamson isn’t enough to convince me otherwise. UNDER

New York Knicks: 53.5 Wins

The Knicks are dealing with injury issues heading into the season, and their lack of depth means that if anyone goes down, this team will seriously struggle. Josh Hart is trying to avoid inevitable hand surgery, while the Knicks' bench unit remains one of the worst in the league. The lack of other contenders will allow this team to cruise into the playoffs, but this win total is a tad too high given the volatility of an 82-game schedule. UNDER

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62.5 Wins

This is a sky-high total, but we will still take the over on Oklahoma City. Their lengthy list of young talent will allow them to stay fresh throughout the year, and there is no reason to expect any regression from their 68-win campaign last year. Hangovers are much easier to overcome for younger players, and the championship hangover for OKC will be nonexistent heading into the new year. OVER

Orlando Magic: 50.5 Wins

There is a lot to like about the Magic heading into the new year. They are fully healthy, there isn’t much competition in the East, and they have a promising future with a young core. However, they haven’t won more than 47 games since 2011, and even a significant bump in their recent high won’t be enough to reach this line. UNDER

Philadelphia 76ers: 42.5 Wins

If Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey all play to their potential, the 76ers will fly past this win total. However, Embiid is unlikely to suit up very often, and the motivation for George has evaporated. Despite that, the 76ers have too much talent on their roster to expect another sub-.500 season. Embiid doesn’t want to waste his prime with another year of missing the playoffs, and I expect the 76ers to dig deep to put themselves in a position to contend. OVER

Phoenix Suns: 32.5 Wins

Devin Booker needs to be freed from Phoenix, as the Suns have a tough few years coming up. This team will go into full rebuild mode in the second half, and there will be very little to cheer for in Arizona. The over is tempting with a few big names on the roster, but when they get shut down with ‘injuries’, it won’t matter. UNDER

Portland Trail Blazers: 34.5 Wins

The emotional Damian Lillard reunion in Portland is a great story, but that doesn’t mean it will translate into wins. However, Jrue Holiday also joining the mix gives the Trail Blazers stability on both ends of the court. A crowded Western Conference of contenders will probably keep the playoffs out of reach, but 35-40 wins feels attainable. OVER

Sacramento Kings: 34.5 Wins

The Kings have talent in Sacramento, but they appear to be short on team chemistry heading into the new year. Maybe an offseason of practices will have helped them gel, but this still feels like a team full of egos in a sport where that can’t be tolerated. This is a pretty low win total for a roster featuring DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Domantas Sabonis, but we will still take the UNDER.

San Antonio Spurs: 44.5 Wins

San Antonio is getting ready to start contending as they have surrounded Victor Wembanyama with proven NBA talent. De’Aaron Fox is the perfect point guard for Wembanyama, and a stacked frontcourt will allow the Spurs to clog the paint. However, their lack of three-point shooters will leave them playing catch-up against a barrage of threes, and I just don’t see them scoring enough twos to overcome that often enough. The Spurs are still one year away from truly contending. UNDER

Toronto Raptors: 39.5 Wins

If Toronto stays healthy, the Raptors have the chance to make real waves in the East this season. A starting five with Barnes, Ingram, Quickley, Barrett, and Poeltl is well-rounded, and the Raptors have a bench unit that is among the best in the league. Injuries derailed their aspirations last season, but they now look as ready as ever to get back into the postseason. OVER

Utah Jazz: 18.5 Wins

Utah has the lowest win total in the NBA this season, and it’s for good reason. They don’t have the talent needed to pull off upsets and will be heavy underdogs in almost every matchup. However, a sub-20 win total is rare to see in the modern-day NBA. On average, only 1.1 teams finish with fewer than 19 wins each season, and we will play the odds that it won’t be the Jazz. It’s ugly, but with this line, the only option is OVER.

Washington Wizards: 21.5 Wins

Washington is in the middle of a deep rebuild that isn’t ending anytime soon. They don’t have any real emerging talents, yet are expected to post four more wins than they did last season. The difference between an 18.5 and 21.5 wins total is quite large, and I am comfortable taking the UNDER.

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Start:	October 4, 2025 @ 10:00 PM
Expert:	Nick Menken
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2025-26 NBA Season Win Totals Predictions with Odds and Expert Betting Picks

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