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Sunday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

by Mike Allen - 9/11/2025

Sunday Night Football picks Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings Michael Penix

I hope everyone survived a wild Week 1. I had the Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) at home on Sunday. It looked like we were gonna at least make it to overtime, but no. Younghoe Koo came up to the plate in the bottom of the ninth with a chance to tie the Bucs. It was only a 44-yarder, and the ball sailed wide to the right.

After missing nine kicks last year, his leash was pretty short. Head coach Raheem Morris has already let us know that the team has brought in another kicker to compete for the job. This one stings for a Falcon team that outplayed the Bucs, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

As for the Minnesota Vikings, they didn’t quit, and when opportunity came a knockin’ in the 4th quarter, the team answered the bell loud and clear.

Had these two wacky endings gone the other way, would the Vikings still be betting favorites of more than a field goal?

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Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

This betting line opened at (-4.5) for the Vikings and was quickly bet down to its current position. Atlanta's injury report isn't looking too bad for Week 2, as Drake London is expected to start with a sprained shoulder.

The Vikings, conversely, are already hurting, awaiting the return of starting left tackle Christian Darrisaw. The defense will be without starting inside linebacker Blake Cashman. He suffered a concussion last week, along with backup running back and returner Ty Chandler.

Right now, the Falcons at more than a field goal is pretty tempting. Let’s get to the total and moneyline.

Point Total: 44.5

We opened at 45 and have since seen about ⅔ of the tickets and money come in on the under. I think a lot of bettors will be hammering unders this week, as it is the first “Week” of preparation. Week 1, of course, gives the various coaching staffs months of prep time.

Moneyline

Falcons: +160

Vikings: -190

The Atlanta Falcons are very live in this Sunday Night showcase spot for the two young quarterbacks. These two beat out the Super Bowl rematch for the primetime Sunday night slot.

Hey, that speaks to how the league feels about Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy. It's still too early to call it for either guy, but we can't say they're off to bad starts.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Betting Analysis

I love the matchup here with the young Falcons quarterback and the defensive coordinator of Minnesota, Brian Flores. The latter is a master of confusion for opposing offenses, and he particularly enjoys blitzing.

I'm not sure how well that will work, however, against Penix Jr., who is so quick on his feet and won't hesitate to dump the ball off to his star running back, Bijan Robinson.

Speaking of Robinson, his rush total was quite surprising last week, just 2 yards on 12 carries, which brings me to my next point.

Penix Jr. had nearly 300 yards through the air, and the Falcons couldn’t get anything going on the ground. On 22 carries, they mustered 48 yards.

If the Vikings don’t stop Robinson from getting to the second level of the defense on some of his inside carries, they’re in big trouble with Cashman out.

I'm not hearing many people mention that this is a letdown spot for the Vikings. They had such an improbable and emotional win over the Bears. They aren't on a short week, and they don't have to travel with those emotions, but they're there.

I rode the Viking bandwagon hard last year after I was the only one on the bus before the season started. It may be time to jump off this train, though, at least for a few days.

Flip the results of Week 1, and the point spread would at least be inside of a field goal. Add in the letdown factor to go along with the favorable injury report, and we have a play on the dog.

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings Betting Pick

Pick: Falcons (+3.5)

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