Sunday Night Football Picks: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Predictions
In a rematch of last season's Divisional Playoff, the Baltimore Ravens head north to "balmy" Buffalo, New York, to battle the Bills in yet another high-level Week 1 matchup in the NFL.
How can you not love both of these teams, especially their quarterbacks? The Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen won the NFL MVP trophy last season, and the Ravens' Lamar Jackson already has two under his cape.
Unfortunately for Buffalo, the superstardom, and some could argue, the stardom alone, begins and ends with Allen. That's a big reason we took him mid-season while he was still at plus money and again a few weeks later at (-150) to win the MVP.
The league had to give him the award because he carried a big load by himself. Is that really the case, though, or is perception just 9/10 of the law? Having one clear-cut leader on a team is essential, but we could still get that from Allen if he had a running back like Derrick Henry or a wide receiving corps as electric as the Ravens'.
We still have a long season ahead of us, so let's attempt to leap over any major firepower. We've got one game this Sunday night from Orchard Park. The forecast is clear, with a temperature of 59 degrees.
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Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills (+1)
These betting odds have actually shifted since they were first released. The sportsbooks opened the home Bills as the 1-point favorite, but it didn't take long for some bright minds to start running the numbers, and here we are, flipped.
Point Total: 50.5
Big money has come in on the under, and it's already been pulled through the key number of 51 after the market opened the point total up at 52. It may be a little too late to tail, though, as a simple score of 27-24 will make for what you wish was a manic Monday at work.
Moneyline
Ravens: -115
Bills: -105
If you want to bet on a side in this game, stick to the moneyline if you like the Ravens. However, if you prefer to play the Bills, take the point spread.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
Although I don't want to bet against the Ravens here, it's worth noting that Allen was 10-0 last season when playing at home. This includes the postseason, of course, when they defeated the Broncos handily and then the Ravens by a margin of 3.
Allen was doubled up in passing yards, 254 to 127, by Jackson. Henry outgained James Cook on the ground. These things didn't matter.
They rarely do when a team wins the turnover battle by 3. Buffalo also made the plays when they needed to, especially in the red zone. Allen only had 20 yards rushing on 10 attempts, but two of those went for touchdowns.
There are a couple of things to unpack here. First, the Buffalo Bills are both a positive turnover-generating machine, as well as just being kinda lucky. Last season's +24 turnover margin is unprecedented, and the 8 turnovers they did have on offense are tied as the fewest of any team all time. They actually break the tie because they played one more game than the 2019 Saints but we digress.
The other point here is that the Ravens are more of a regular season team than the Bills, and Buffalo is better in the playoffs. Nothing highlights this better than their quarterback play. Jackson lost a fumble and threw a pick in the Divisional Playoff game.
In their regular season matchup, the Bills had injuries on offense but Jackson played a much better game, throwing for 8.7 yards per pass with 2 touchdowns and zero turnovers. The final score was 35-10 after a 21-3 halftime lead.
I don't believe they'll be that dominant, but the Ravens are a tick better than Buffalo when the turnover battle is equal.
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills Betting Pick
Pick: Ravens Moneyline (-115)
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