Sunday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

by Mike Allen - 12/4/2025

This Sunday night, in what will undoubtedly be a frenzied Arrowhead Stadium, the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs host the red-hot Houston Texans. It wasn't that long ago, maybe a month, when highly respected handicappers and journalists had the Chiefs in their top 3 of their power rankings.

I wasn't quite there yet, but I understood. Give them a neutral field in the playoff environment, and yes, they're still the team to beat, at least in the AFC.

Now, however, I don't know. I'm starting to think Andy Reid might be aging out, but that's a better conversation for the offseason. KC has lost 3 of its last 4 games, yes, but the stretch has been brutal.

After breezing past the Commanders and Raiders, they had to travel to Buffalo, then Denver, before a must-win overtime victory over the Colts. Then, on a short week, they lost to the Cowboys in Dallas, who played their best game of the season.

I thought the Chiefs performed well, tackled exceptionally well, but ‘Dem Boyz were on a mission for those turkey legs.

Right now, KC has a 44% chance of making the postseason, and the Texans are one of the teams they'll be competing with for a wild-card spot. So, this game is massive for both organizations, especially the Chiefs.

Houston has recently welcomed starting QB C.J. Stroud back to the team after backup Davis Mills went 3-0 as a starter, including wins over the division rival Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills.

It might throw off their rhythm to get C.J. back in there, but they didn't miss a beat, defeating the Indianapolis Colts 20-16.

This game is considered, by most, the worst officiated game of the season, and the calls certainly went in favor of the Texans. It should also be noted that Colts QB Daniel Jones was literally playing with a broken leg.

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Houston Texans (+3) at Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

If Houston had lost that game, would we be getting KC at just a field goal here at home? It should be at least 3.5, and it is available at many sportsbooks. The consensus, though, mirrors the betting odds at the sharper books like the Circa in Las Vegas, which has this at just a field goal.

The lookahead line was actually (-5.5), so recency bias alone is giving us 2.5 points of expected value if we like the Chiefs.

Nearly 90% of the money has come in on Houston here, but that was mostly at (+3.5).

Point Total: 41.5

The point total opened higher at 42.5, and we've seen 90% of the money here pour in on the under. Houston is, of course, an under team. This is especially true when they're playing on the road, as Stroud struggles away from home.

The current weather forecast for the game isn't brutal, but to quote Rocky, "It ain't all sunshine and rainbows, neither." We're looking at a game-time temperature of 22 degrees with winds upwards of 18 MPH.

If you want to play the under, I suggest jumping on it sooner rather than later, as 41 is a key number, meaning it is the third most frequent point total in the NFL.

Moneyline Odds

Texans: +150

Chiefs: -180

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis

The value is certainly on the moneyline if you like the Texans here. Betting odds of (+150) pay out 66% more than the (-110) you would roughly receive on Houston (+3).

That’s if you like Houston here, which I don’t think I do. This is a sell-high spot on the Texans and an opportunity to buy low on the Chiefs.

Stroud’s only road win this season came in Baltimore against a decimated Ravens team. Outside of the gift they received last week in Indy, the team’s only other win away from home was in Tennessee.

Take away the Ravens' win, and the offense is averaging just over 15 points a game on the road. That being said, their road games have been against good defenses like the Rams and Seahawks.

I like the under here, but KC hasn’t been lights out on defense as of late, and the Texans’ defense is so good that they can flip fields dramatically, which can increase the scoring.

Give me the home team playing outside in their element in a desperation spot to keep them in contention for the postseason. Let’s go 23-16 KC.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs (-3)

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Sunday Night Football Picks: Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs

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