Sunday Night Football Picks: Minnesota Vikings vs Dallas Cowboys

by Mike Allen - 12/11/2025

Sometimes you look at a game, and the betting odds just seem too obvious. You ask yourself, “Am I the only one who sees this line is way off?” Those games can be some of the scariest to pick.

I felt that way last week about the Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders game when I added it to my basic strategy teaser. Why would the sportsbooks throw the (-7.5) in there? They know people are going to tease them down under a field goal to (-1.5).

Well, a whole lot of tomfoolery had to happen, much of it highly controversial for them to cover.

This week’s Sunday Night Football matchup between the visiting Minnesota Vikings and the home Dallas Cowboys is not one of those games.

With both teams virtually eliminated from postseason play, it’s hard to get a read on how they show up.

For Minnesota, they have less than a 1% chance, but since Philly lost on Monday Night to the Chargers, ‘Dem Boyz are still in it, with roughly a 9% chance to qualify for the playoffs.

We successfully sold high on Dallas last week when they traveled to Detroit and lost by a couple of touchdowns.

It didn’t look good from an effort perspective from WR2 turned WR1, George Pickens. There is no excuse, of course, but I believe the lack of effort stemmed from a place of frustration. After CeeDee Lamb went out with a scary concussion, Pickens went from mostly being covered one-on-one to being double-teamed on nearly every play.

That being said, we have seen this team give a weak effort one week, use it in our handicapping, and the following week, they’re out there giving 150%.

Dallas is a different team at home, and that, along with the now 9% chance to make the postseason, makes this betting line more sense.

What about Minnesota? They’re incredibly well-coached on both sides of the ball. Still, their starting quarterback, J.J. McCarthy, is coming off his best performance of the season by a Minnesota mile in the team’s 31-0 victory at home over the collapsing Commanders.

For me, the shutout from Briaan Flores’ defense is much more impressive than the QB leading the team to 31 points. Even though this was his best game of the season, he still only threw for 163 yards, his second-highest total of the season, by the way.

Doc’s Sports offers NFL expert picks for every game on our NFL predictions page.

Minnesota Vikings (+5.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

This betting line opened up at (-7.5) for the Dallas Cowboys. Since then, there’s been a slight sharp/square divide, with 80% of the tickets on Dallas but only 65% of the money. That’s when the number was above both the key numbers of 7 and 6.

Now that we’re down under 6 points, which has actually been more of a key number in recent years than 7. I’m seeing a couple of 6’s out there, so if you like the Vikings, I would jump on that sooner rather than later.

Point Total: 47.5

The point total opened up at 47, and we’ve seen mostly public money push this up to where we are now at 47.5. I wouldn’t bet the over from here, because 47 is a very key number in NFL point totals. Betting the under in a Dallas Cowboys’ home game is risky, though, as their offense is as potent at home as any team in the league.

Moneyline Odds

Vikings: +220

Cowboys: -277

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys Betting Analysis

On paper, Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott is the best in the league at his position against the blitz, and that’s including away games where he has to deal with a lot more noise and distractions.

He’ll still see it quite often because the Minnesota Vikings lead the NFL in blitz rate per dropback at an astounding 49%. This is only good enough for about 10th in the league in pressure rate, though.

This will be the first time the defensive coordinator and the Cowboys’ QB have gone head-to-head. This is easily the most intriguing matchup within the matchup.

Do you want to bet Prescott and the Cowboys off a loss at home on an extended week, mind you, or do you want to put your money on McCarthy on the road and off his best game of the year?

Look out for Quinnen Williams to have a big day as the Vikings’ o-line ranks 30th in the league, allowing a sack on more than 10% of dropbacks.

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys Betting Pick

Pick: Dallas Cowboys (-5.5)

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Start:	December 11, 2025 @ 7:00 PM
Expert:	Tony George
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