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Sunday Night Football Picks: New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens

by Mike Allen - 12/18/2025

Sunday Night Football picks New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens Drake Maye

The NFL is getting good! I’m more excited for the next week or so of football than my auntie’s ham. Just don’t tell her that. She’s still a “Redskins” fan anyway, so she shouldn’t be reading this one.

Happy Holidays to everyone. I’m pumped for several of the Christmas week matchups, but one that’s flying under the radar is a potential AFC Playoff prequel between the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens.

The latter is coming off a shutout win over Joe Burrow and the Bengals, in Cincinnati at that! I would love to shake the hand of the person who predicted that. I guess Burrow had that interview before the game, where he just seemed mentally checked out, frustrated, and almost defeated.

Every expert I heard said, “Nah, you can’t take that seriously”, and I get it. I felt the same way.

It doesn’t appear that Cincy is playing hard for their coach. I’ve never been a fan of the guy, and it looks like he may get the boot soon. So, tread lightly if you’re thinking about fading the debut of Quinn Ewers in a Miami Dolphins uniform on Sunday. Maybe hit the over in that one.

Speaking of overs, at first glance, the point total we have for Sunday Night Football between the Ravens and Patriots is looking pretty good. The forecast is fantastic for the daylight hours with a high of 50°F, and perfect football weather under the lights at M&T Bank Stadium, just east of the famous Inner Harbor.

This is a big game for both teams here, as Mike Vrabel and the Pats are just one game ahead of the Buffalo Bills after last week’s heartbreaking loss. I showed up to the sports bar, saw 21-0, and thought, wow, the Bills might be cooked.

Josh Allen, however, had other plans. He plays so well in December. The reigning NFL MVP outplayed his younger and less-experienced counterpart, Drake Maye, down the stretch.

Where would this line be, though, if New England had held on and semi-cruised to a 10 or 13-point win?

Heck, some of you may even be surprised to see the Pats as field goal underdogs in this spot. When you dig a bit deeper, though, we can see that the Pats hold the tiebreaker over the Bills. The only way they can lose that is if they drop their game at the Jets next week and/or fall to Miami in Foxboro in the final week of the season.

Shout out to us, as we watched every voice we respected take the Dolphins in Pittsburgh this past Monday night. It was like a slowly passing party boat sent a raft to reel us in, but we respectfully declined and spent the night on a deserted island.

It feels good when you stick to your guns and hit a bullseye, while everyone else is aiming the other way. The moral of the story is the Dolphins don’t play well in cold weather, so New England can remain in the driver’s seat to win the division even if they lose to the Ravens this week.

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New England Patriots (+3) at Baltimore Ravens (-3)

Even with the Ravens’ shocking shutout of the Bengals last week, the Patriots are still the public side here at (+3). We’re looking at 71% of the tickets and only 48% of the money on New England right now.

Point Total: 47.5

There’s also a sharp/square divide on the total here, and that’s something I’m a little bit more interested in than a side. I normally want to be on the right side of the very key number of 47, but I’m seeing a couple of 48s out there and even a 48.5 starting to pop up.

Moneyline Odds

Patriots: +130

Ravens: -160

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Betting Analysis

Even though the Ravens won 24-0 last week, you can’t take too much from it. It doesn’t look like Cincy is playing hard for their coach, and the Ravens need to run-to-pass. They haven’t been successful with the reciprocal this season.

They can do that against Cincy, yes, who is 30th in the NFL in yards/rush attempt for the season and dead last over their previous three games.

The New England Patriots have been good but not elite at stopping the run. I could see Baltimore having some success on the ground.

The Pats are perfect on the road this season, and Baltimore is just 3-5 at home. Both teams had weird games last week, so let’s stay away from picking a side in this one.

The injury report just came out a couple of minutes ago, as of Thursday evening Eastern time. Of the combined 7 players from both teams who did not participate in practice, all of them are on the defense. The 5 combined players who were limited in practice today, 3 are defenders.

Let’s not overthink this one. Take the over 47.5

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens Betting Pick

Pick: Over 47.5 Points

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