Sunday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders

by Mike Allen - 11/27/2025

The Washington Commanders are finally back after their long-awaited and much-needed week off from their duty as whipping boy for NFL teams. Dan Quinn's crew hasn't been right all season. And after the loss of second-year starting quarterback Jayden Daniels, 2025 has turned into a disaster for everyone involved.

One of my first memories of the NFL was sitting in the living room with my Dad and his brothers, as he wore his plastic "Hog nose" proudly, and watching Mark Rypien win a Super Bowl. I learned a lesson on Super Bowl Sunday that has never left me.

You don’t need Joe Montana or any other great quarterback to win a Super Bowl. If you have a strong offensive line, which they did, allowing Rypien to be sacked just 7 times over the course of the 16-game regular season and zero times throughout the playoffs, as well as the big game.

Forgive the reminisce. It's Thanksgiving, and old memories tend to return when you're with loved ones.

I can't help but tie this in to the matchup we have on Sunday Night Football between the Commanders and the visiting Denver Broncos. The former is virtually eliminated, with only three wins to its name. But the latter, led by Hall of Fame head coach Sean Payton and his pupil, another second-year starter, Bo Nix, is a contender.

He's making fewer mistakes lately and turning into a solid NFL quarterback. We are now seeing him start to put together some game-winning drives as well. More importantly, the Broncos' offensive line is keeping him upright, allowing just 13 sacks on the season, good enough for 2nd in the league behind the Seahawks.

I know I've said Super Bowl several times already, and it's only Thanksgiving, but the first-place Broncos certainly have their sights set high. Until someone does when it matters the most, the Kansas City Chiefs are the team to beat in the AFC.

That said, they did just beat KC in Denver a couple of weeks ago, as the Broncos are off a bye week as well.

I imagine players and coaches always welcome them. However, who wants to break their rhythm when they haven't lost a game since September 22nd? Denver lost their first two road games of the year, to the Colts by 1 point and the following week to the rival "early-season" Chargers by a field goal, who actually had an NFL offensive line.

They had Indy beat, but Will Lutz doinked a 42-yarder that would have been the difference. Denver is very good, and Washington is not. Let's dive in.

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Denver Broncos (-5.5) at Washington Commanders (+5.5)

Point Total: 43.5

This line opened at 43.5, and even after a sharp/square divide with 90% of the money and 50% of the tickets rolling in on the under, we're still at 43.5. I don't know what to make of this. The issue is Denver could go off and put up 35 points, which is certainly possible against this clown show of a Commanders defense.

On the other side, though, I don’t see Washington being able to move the ball consistently against this team.

Moneyline Odds

Broncos: -270

Commanders: +215

Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders Betting Analysis

I just read an article on a well-respected site, and they're trying to sell Quinn as a believer in his team's playoff chances. I guess that's the same guy who went for it on 4th down a million times.

Honestly, that's the guy you want in your corner, but we don't need that kind of leadership. We just have to keep it real.

I know it's Thanksgiving, but where's Lloyd Christmas at? So, you're saying there's a chance?!

Yeah. There is literally a 0.1% chance Washington makes it to postseason play.

We mentioned how well Denver protects Nix. How many sacks has Washington given up?

More than double at 27. That's in the bottom half of the league, but you still have several teams in the high 30s and low 40s.

I think you know what’s coming. The Broncos have 49 sacks as a team! That’s 7 more than second place, the Myles Garrett-led Browns.

Terry McLaurin is set to return and Marcus Mariota could run the ball up the middle to offset some of the pass rush but I’m just not buying it. McLaurin’s return is enough to keep me off the under, as they could possibly put up 20 points. If that happens, we are definitely going over the total.

Now, the only thing keeping me off the Broncos (-5.5) is the fact that it seems too easy to be true. It's been hard to compare notes with my friends, who are focused on the holiday games.

Give me the better team with the much better defense and far more to play for.

Denver Broncos at Washington Commanders Betting Pick

Pick: Denver Broncos (-5.5)

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Start:	November 27, 2025 @ 8:20 PM
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Sunday Night Football Picks: Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders

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