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Sunday Night Football Picks: New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

by Mike Allen - 10/2/2025

Sunday Night Football picks New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Josh Allen

Can you believe it's already Week 5 in the NFL? This first month always seems to go by the fastest. For New England Patriots fans, September wasn't the worst showing. Their former player and new head coach, Mike Vrabel, has the team off to a 2-2 start to the season.

They even have a positive point differential of 102-81, albeit against sub-par competition like the Panthers, Raiders, and Dolphins.

In Upstate New York, the Buffalo Bills can't complain. Head coach Sean McDermott has mentioned he is quite pleased with the team's 4-0 start to the 2025 season. As good as Josh Allen and this squad can be, we still have to put their record into perspective. The 41-40 win over Baltimore was superb, but outside of that, they've beaten the Dolphins, Saints, and Jets the past three weeks.

To their credit, Buffalo hasn't slipped up yet. 

Just as Allen isn't afraid to sling the rock up and down the field, the same can be said for the Patriots' second-year starter under center, Drake Maye. Like Allen, the North Carolina Tarheel has thrown for nearly 1,000 yards so far this season with a 74% completion percentage and 7 touchdown passes.

Allen's statistics are almost a mirror image of Maye's, except the Pats' QB has been sacked 13 times, compared to his 7. 

Neither team has been as effective on defense as they are when they have the ball in their hands. While both squads rank inside the top ten for yards/play, they're each in the bottom half of the league in yards/play allowed.

This is where it gets strange, particularly with the Bills' defense. Coordinator Bobby Babich took over the defense's controls almost two years ago, following his promotion from linebackers coach.

The team ranks 30th in the NFL, allowing an embarrassing full 6.0 yards/carry. Contrast this with their pass defense, which ranks 1st in the NFL, giving up just 5.5 yards/reception. You don't often see a defense that gives up more yards per play on the ground than it does through the air.

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New England Patriots (+8) at Buffalo Bills (-8)

This betting line surprisingly opened up at (-10.5) for the home Bills. The market doesn't mind the Pats, though, as you can see. They view them as a team with an outside chance of securing a wild-card spot in the postseason.

I’ve heard some rumblings that this is a terrible spot for Buffalo, but I’m not buying it. They have the Atlanta Falcons next week, so I don’t see them looking ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup with the Pats. 

Point Total: 48.5

Betting the under in a Josh Allen Bills game is not something I really ever want to do. The guy wills points on the board if his team needs it. I suppose there is the narrative that the Bills have a decent lead, and their league-leading pass defense keeps New England trailing by two scores for much of the game.

We could also see a good old-fashioned Sunday night shootout. I'm staying away from the total. There may be a team total in our future, though. More on that in a moment.

Moneyline Odds

Patriots: -405

Bills: +305

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis

For decades, the Patriots owned the Bills. Heck, they owned everyone, but especially their AFC East rival, the Buffalo Bills. After 35-5 since 2000, the 2020s have been different with Buffalo winning 8 games to the Pats' 3, including a 41-17 playoff victory.

Remember the contrasting run and pass defenses for the Bills? Well, New England isn’t much different, except they’re 2nd against the run and 28th at stopping the other team from moving the ball through the air.

Match that up with the Bills' top five passing attack, and Vrabel's boys might have a problem. Trying to decide on a pick based on the teams' respective statistics is like asking a lonely scarecrow for directions.

No matter who’s winning the game, it doesn’t appear that the Pats will be able to consistently get stops on the Bills, especially if Allen is connecting with his targets through the air. Give me the Bills’ team total over 28.5 points.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills Betting Pick

Pick: Bills Over 28.5 Points

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