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NBA Betting Trends Analysis and Expert Handicapping 1/30/2026

by Jeremy Block - 1/30/2026

NBA betting trends and expert handicapping LaMelo Ball Charlotte Hornets

As we wrap up January, we're back with another edition of NBA Trends to Watch, and there's a lot to cover. With trade rumors swirling and talk of who’s packing their bags or switching teams, things are getting chaotic. Bettors are left scratching their heads, not knowing where to put their money, and this story is your solution to getting out of the red before Super Bowl weekend.

With star players being tossed around in trade talks, teams looking vulnerable without their main scorers, and underdogs covering spreads left and right, there’s a lot to unpack. Let’s dive in and break down the latest trends you need to watch out for.

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Fade Milwaukee Without Antetokounmpo

When it comes to trade rumors and injuries, the Bucks are right at the top—and it's not looking good. With an 18-28 record this season and currently outside the playoff picture, they’ve got a tough road ahead. And now, to make matters worse, Giannis Antetokounmpo has announced he’s “ready for a new home” while recovering from a calf injury that will keep him sidelined until the second week of February.

So, what does this mean for making money? For the Bucks, it’s everything they didn’t want to hear. For bettors, it means fading the Bucks at all costs on the spread. Look, even with Antetokounmpo on the floor this season, Milwaukee has struggled to cover the spread, sitting at 19-27. Without him? It’s only going to get worse.

Without its leading scorer, rebounder, and veteran presence, the Bucks will be incredibly weak on both ends of the floor, leaving huge gaps for opposing teams to exploit. Think about it: with Antetokounmpo in the lineup, the Bucks weren’t exactly title-ready, but they were still a threat, mainly because of what the Greek Freak brings defensively and offensively. Without him? They are a train wreck.

Having dropped seven of its last eight games, I don’t expect things to change anytime soon. Keep this in mind when making picks against the spread.

Ride with Hornets ATS as Underdogs

The Eastern Conference has been a strange watch this season, with several sub-.500 teams covering spreads and pulling off big upsets. Lately, no team fits that mold better than the Charlotte Hornets. Despite being 21-28 on the season, the Hornets have found their footing, winning five straight games, and they’re a team no bettor should overlook when listed as underdogs going forward.

Whether you believe in this team or not, the truth is they cover spreads when getting points— sitting 16-11 ATS as underdogs. With a young core led by LaMelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Kon Knueppel, plus knocking down 15.4 triples per game (third best in the league), it's clear as day that Charlotte has the right tools to keep punishing teams that continue to overlook them.

Let’s get this straight: This isn’t a playoff team by any means. But it is a team bettors should keep circling when they’re underdogs in future games.

Bank Trail Blazers ATS at Home

Heading out West, most of the attention stays on teams like Denver, OKC, and San Antonio, leaving Portland in the rearview. That’s a big mistake. The Trail Blazers might not look flashy on paper, but they’ve been extremely reliable for bettors when playing with home court advantage.

With a 15-9 record against the spread at home, Portland is one of the most dependable teams to target. So what’s the secret? Offensive diversity and unselfish basketball, a style we don’t see much anymore. With seven players averaging 11+ points per game, it’s clear this team operates with balance, and discipline, especially at home.

But unlike other teams that rely heavily on one star to carry the offense, Portland’s success is built on balance. Instead, its unselfish play and team-oriented style is what keeps them competitive.

Are they a playoff sleeper? That’s still up in the air. But as a betting trend, Portland at home is a real threat to make serious money off of. As long as they stay healthy and stick to this brand of basketball, bettors should keep them on their radar.

Bet Under When Spurs Are Home Favorites

Keeping things in the Western Conference, the Spurs have become the team to beat, emerging as a legitimate championship contender in recent weeks. While most of the basketball world believes its offense has gotten them this far, they’re missing the point. The real credit belongs to its defense. When San Antonio is listed as a home favorite, betting the under is the play to make.

Now, I know what you’re thinking: 'Jeremy, why fade the over when they’re averaging 117.2 points per game?' Simple—because its defense is that much better. Allowing just 112 points per game and holding opponents to 45% shooting, San Antonio ranks in the top seven for both stats.

At 14-6 on the under as a home favorite, there’s no reason to expect any sudden changes. Given how deep this lineup is, and how effective they are on the defensive end, it’s safe to keep riding this trend when they’re at home for upcoming games.

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