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Sunday Night Football Picks: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants

by Spencer Toth - 9/12/2026

Sunday Night Football picks Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants Dak Prescott

The first Sunday Night Football matchup of the season is upon us, and we couldn’t have asked for a better matchup as two longtime NFC East rivals go toe-to-toe. The New York Giants will be hoping they can emerge from their rebuild competitively, with a new head coach in John Harbaugh at the helm. The Giants have only made the playoffs once in the last decade, and starting out the season with a big win at home would go a long way towards snapping that drought. On the other side of the field, we have America’s Team, the Dallas Cowboys. The heartbreaks have piled up for Dallas as the Cowboys have been unable to run positive regular seasons into tangible results. Dak Prescott and company continue to dominate on offense, and the Cowboys faithful will be hoping this is the year they can put it all together on both sides of the ball. New York snapped a nine-game head-to-head losing streak in Week 18 last year, and will be looking to pick up where they left off in the season finale. Can the Giants defend their home turf in the season opener, or will the Cowboys pick up a massive win on the first Sunday Night Football game of the new season? Let’s dive in.

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Cowboys at Giants Odds

Dallas Cowboys: (-3), -165 Moneyline

New York Giants: (+3), +140 Moneyline

Over/Under: 48.5 Points

If the Giants Win and Cover…

The Giants will be hoping this is a new era of football in New York with John Harbaugh leading the charge. New York lured Harbaugh to the Big Apple after he was fired from the Ravens after 18 seasons in Baltimore. The Super Bowl winner knows how to field a competitive squad, and there is real reason for optimism around this team. 

On the field, New York was starting to get going last season with quarterback Jaxson Dart, wide receiver Malik Nabers, and running back Cam Skattebo at the skill positions, but all three got hurt down the stretch. Dart and Skattebo are both good to go for the season opener, but Nabers is still questionable as he recovers from a knee injury. 

Dart emerged as the future starter for the Giants last season, but concussion issues kept him from truly building momentum. However, his high ceiling was on full display, as Dart’s athleticism, unique arm angles, and ability to create something out of nothing created a buzz for the first time in a long time around the Giants. Once you add in Skattebo in the backfield, the Giants captured lightning in a bottle for a few games last year before it all fell apart. Now that both are healthy again, a Week 1 victory over Dallas could allow them to pick up right where they left off. 

Of course, the Giants need to score points on offense, but this team’s aspirations will be determined by how they play on defense. New York has a terrifying defensive front led by Brian Burns, Abdul Carter, and fifth overall 2026 pick Arvell Reese. The Giants will look to pressure Dak Prescott early and often in this game, and a bouncing MetLife Stadium will create quite the atmosphere. Burns amassed a stunning 16.5 sacks last season and will once again need to be great if the Giants want this upset. There are question marks in the secondary, but that won’t matter if the Giants can disrupt the rhythm of Dak Prescott. Once you factor in that New York is at home and underdogs by a crucial number on the spread, scooping up the free field goal certainly can be justified. 

If the Cowboys Win and Cover…

The expectations are always high in Dallas as this team has been able to consistently string together successful regular seasons over the last several years. A decade later, Dak Prescott hasn’t quite been able to live up to his Offensive Rookie of the Year hype, but he continues to operate a very strong offense. Mistakes in the clutch have hurt the Cowboys in the past, but if they run up the score in the first three quarters, it often doesn’t matter. Prescott also has one of the best wide receiver tandems in the league with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens to aim at, giving the Cowboys a real edge on offense. Pickens is a legitimate deep ball threat who thrives on the double move, while Lamb can find success in nearly every area of the field. We all know what the Cowboys can do on offense, but this team has been unable to play complementary football with defensive lapses costing them games. 

Dallas made the offseason changes they needed to on defense to hopefully put that to rest. They allowed an NFL-worst 30.1 PPG last season, and underwent a complete overhaul this summer. First, they traded for Rashan Gary from the Green Bay Packers for some proven help up front. Gary wasn't cheap, but he is effective in both stopping the run and generating quarterback pressures, and will look to replace some of the production lost from Micah Parsons. Gary is not the only new face on the defensive line, and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is now in his first full year with the Cowboys, and is joined by first-round draft pick Malachi Lawrence. Lawrence is expected to make an immediate impact for this team, and will hopefully revitalize this defense. Dallas also selected Caleb Downs at safety, giving them a Week 1 starter they can trust in the secondary. If the Cowboys can even play average football on defense; they don’t need to be the best unit in the league, the offense will take care of the rest. 

Best Bets:

There is a lot of turnover for both of these teams heading into the new season. Fresh faces on both sides of the ball, in addition to a relatively clean bill of health, will be a welcome sight for both teams, but only one will win the season opener. 

There is one stat that I cannot ignore, and that is that Week 1 divisional home underdogs are a stunning 20-8 against the spread over the last 15 years. The Giants are the perfect candidate to keep this trend alive, as they are underdogs by the crucial three-point number. New York was just starting to find their swag before the injuries piled up last year, and they are the first Sunday Night Football pick of the season. Dallas’s defense will take a few weeks to gel, and a road game with the division potentially on the line is a high-pressure situation to start their respective careers in Dallas. New York’s chemistry both on and off the field will shine, and it certainly helps having some free points in the back pocket. This will be a back-and-forth contest that goes down to the wire, and I don’t expect either team to win by double digits. Will the Giants get the last laugh on the scoreboard? Potentially. But even if they fall short of the outright victory, we have no choice but to scoop up the points on the spread. 

Pick: New York Giants (+3)

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