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Thursday Night Football Picks: Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Best Bets

by Ryan Cobbett - 9/22/2026

Thursday Night Football picks Falcons vs Packers Michael Penix Jr.

Thursday Night Football will take place at the friendly confines of Lambeau Field to get Week 3 underway. Atlanta will be looking for a way to get in the win column after limping to a 0-2 start to the season. Green Bay will be looking to pick up a win in their home opener. The Falcons will have Michael Penix Jr. return at quarterback after two weeks of very shaky quarterback play. With Penix surrounded by an improved offensive line, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London the offense should be able to match their season total in just this game alone. Green Bay is trending in the other direction after getting banged up and performing in a lackluster manner against the New York Jets this past weekend. We are primed for an entertaining game to kick off the new week.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Thursday Night Football Game Odds:

Atlanta Falcons: +6 / Moneyline: +225

Green Bay Packers: -6 / Moneyline: -278

Over/Under: 43.5

Atlanta Falcons Game Preview

The Atlanta Falcons are coming off a blowout home loss to the Carolina Panthers. This blowout loss was a result of five turnovers after an abysmal showing from the quarterback room. One positive thing about the game was that the Falcons defense did limit the Panthers to just 3.1 yards per carry and just 68 rushing yards in the game. Through two games, the Falcons rank dead last in the league in PPG with just 16 total points on the season. They have averaged a lowly 262 YPG, with just 123.5 coming in the air. The defense hasn’t been terrible, but they are always on the field. They have allowed 27 PPG and 302 YPG.

The biggest change for Atlanta heading into this Week 3 matchup is the return of Penix under center. While the focus will be on getting some productivity from the quarterback position, the Falcons will need to get Robinson going early in order to ease their quarterback’s return. Penix does have a lot of weapons around him, but he will need some time to get reestablished to game speed. Perhaps the most important variable that Atlanta needs to win is the turnover battle. The Falcons rank last in the league with a -6 turnover differential, and their seven turnovers are the highest in the league. They need to take care of the ball if they want to win this game.

Atlanta Falcons 3 Keys to Victory

  1. Establish Bijan Robinson early to take the pressure off of Penix
  2. Exploit potential depth issues due to Green Bay’s offensive line questions
  3. Win the turnover battle

Atlanta Falcons Injuries

CB Billy Bowman Jr. – Questionable

DE Samson Ebukam - Questionable

Green Bay Packers Game Preview

While they did manage to find their way into the win column for the first time this season, the Packers looked far from dominant against the Jets. In fact, they were outgained by 86 yards as the Jets defense held them to just 199 yards for the game. The Jets took the run game out of the equation and held the Packers to just 63 rushing yards and 3.5 yards per carry. While this was a weird, penalty-ridden game (over 280 yards of penalties between both teams), this is a game that the Packers survived but did not thrive. It is also worth noting that the Jets had major control of the clock, totaling nearly 38 minutes of possession.

One thing the Packers need to do in order to get some serious momentum is to establish the passing game with the absence of A.J. Terrell and a weaker Falcons secondary. This is a key game in the season as it could be a real confidence builder for Jordan Love and the rest of the offense. Another key for the Packers is to get to Penix early and often. The Falcons quarterback is returning from an ACL injury and will need some time to get settled in. If Micah Parsons and company can get to him early, the Packers will be in the drivers seat here.

Green Bay Packers 3 Keys to Victory

  1. Exploit the weakened Atlanta secondary
  2. Disrupt Penix early
  3. Establish a ground game to take pressure off of Jordan Love

Green Bay Packers Injuries

WR Jayden Reed – Doubtful

DT Javon Hargrave – Questionable

DT Warren Brinson – Questionable

OT Anthony Belton – Questionable

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Thursday Night Football Game Predictions

While I do think the Falcons are going to have some hope and life return to the team with the return of Penix, the Packers are going to use this as a tune-up game for the rest of the season. The Packers are the better team, and their defense is incredibly strong against the run, which puts even more pressure on Penix’s performance in his return. Atlanta does have an improved offensive line in front of Penix, but the Packers will ultimately prove to be too much and will get the cover. Expect Green Bay to shut the Falcons down on offense, and do a good job winning the turnover battle.

My Pick: Green Bay Packers, -6 / Under 43.5

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