2014 Indianapolis Colts Season Win Total Picks & Futures Odds
by Robert Ferringo - 6/5/2014
2013 Record: 11-5
2014 Las Vegas Season Win Total: 9.5
2014 Season Win Total Prediction: 'Over'
I will admit to taking a big swing and miss on Indianapolis last year. I predicted that Andrew Luck and the Colts would suffer a major sophomore slump and I was licking my chops to bet against them last year. Instead, the Colts won 11 games and posted a very strong 10-6 mark against the spreadas the Legend of Luck continued to grow.
So am I going to admit how foolish I have been and jump onto the already crowded Colts bandwagon heading into 2014? Not exactly.
The Colts have been blessed with the No. 32 ranked strength of schedule based on their opponents' 2013 winning percentage. That is not an exact science for determining which team will have the toughest slate in the upcoming year but a quick scan of Indy's 2014 tells me that they should be headed for another double-digit winning season.
Indianapolis opens the year with a tough road game at Denver. But that precedes a soft spot of three home games in four weeks, with the lone road game at lowly Jacksonville. The Colts also have a stretch of three straight home games in late November following their Week 10 bye. And that trip to Denver is the only road game against a 2013 playoff team.
This roster, the core of which has contributed 22 regular season wins and one playoff victory the past two seasons, continues to improve. The offense should be even better with the return of Reggie Wayne (missed nine games), the addition of Hakeem Nicks, and greater familiarity from Trent Richardson. The Colts had a sound draft and an exceptional free agent haul, which included maneuvers to get D'Qwell Jackson and Arthur Jones while resigning Vontae Davis.
However, there are some troubling statistical indicators that suggest the Colts could stagger. Both their turnover margin and their Pythagorean win total for 2013 fall in a range that suggests a steep wins regression. Indianapolis has also topped its season win total in back-to-back years and that usually sets teams up for a fall against inflated expectations.
Finally, because Luck is being touted as The Next Big Thing the NFL is putting the Colts on in primetime as much as possible. That leads to an even more daunting gauntlet thanks to factors like emotional letdowns and short weeks.
For instance, the Colts play on primetime in each of the first two weeks of the season. After the second game, a Monday night home opener against the Eagles, they have to go on the road on short rest to face a division rival (Jacksonville). Sure, it's the Jaguars, so the Colts have little to worry about. (That is where their SOS comes into play.) But two MNF games, two SNF games, and a Thursday nighter at Houston can take a toll on a team over a 16-game schedule and that can contribute to a team losing one or two games that it shouldn't.
This is one of the best organizations in football. And I'm still feeling the burn of betting against Luck and Co. over the past two years. While I still don't completely buy into Luck, I buy into this organization, which has won 10 or more games in 11 of 12 seasons. The supporting cast is strong so I'll pull the trigger on the 'over' here. This season win total should've been set at 10.5, in which case I likely would've leaned 'under'. But the sportsbooks read the same statistical tea leaves that I do. And neither of us would be stunned if the Colts failed to live up to expectations this year.
Indianapolis Colts Regular Season Schedule (All times EST)
Week 1: Sunday, Sept. 7, at Denver, 8:30 p.m.
Week 2: Monday, Sept. 15, Philadelphia, 8:30 p.m.
Week 3: Sunday, Sept. 21, at Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
Week 4: Sunday, Sept. 28, Tennessee, 1 p.m.
Week 5: Sunday, Oct. 5, Baltimore, 1 p.m.
Week 6: Thursday, Oct. 9, at Houston, 8:25 p.m.
Week 7: Sunday, Oct. 19, Cincinnati, 1 p.m.
Week 8: Sunday, Oct. 26, at Pittsburgh, 4:25 p.m.
Week 9: Monday, Nov. 3, at NY Giants, 8:30 p.m.
Week 10: BYE
Week 11: Sunday, Nov. 16, New England, 8:30 p.m.
Week 12: Sunday, Nov. 23, Jacksonville, 1 p.m.
Week 13: Sunday, Nov. 30, Washington, 1 p.m.
Week 14: Sunday, Dec. 7, at Cleveland, 1 p.m.
Week 15: Sunday, Dec. 14, Houston, 1 p.m.
Week 16: Sunday, Dec. 21, at Dallas, 4:25 p.m.
Week 17: Sunday, Dec. 28, at Tennessee, 1 p.m.
Robert will be releasing his 2014 NFL Futures Predictions on Thursday, Aug. 14. Last year's top two picks (8-Unit Play on Arizona 'over' 5.5 wins and 6-Unit Play on Kansas City over 7.0 wins) both won easily and he has hit his top NFL Futures Play (rated 7.0 or higher) in four straight seasons. For more information visit his Insider's Page HERE.
Robert Ferringo is one of the best NFL handicappers in the world and is coming off one of the best football betting seasons in the 43-year history of Doc's Sports. Robert banked nearly $8,000 in profit for his football clients and won a stunning 62.1 percent of his NFL plays (95-58). Robert has won over 70 percent of his last 58 NFL side plays (41-17) and has posted six of seven winning NFL seasons. He has banked $17,400 in football profit, college and pro, over the last 20 months and he is excited about building on his staggering resume. Take advantage of our free, no-strings-attached $60 credit to use toward a purchase of Robert's football selections. You cannot afford to miss out on this great offer - click here.
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