NFL Expert Picks Against the Spread: Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
Glad I did change my mind on my Thursday recommendation last week as I ended up backing New England at -9.5 vs. the Colts and the Patriots won by two touchdowns. Did miss on the under 53, however, for yet another split. Still yet to have a 0-2 game on any day.
This week, I'd be willing to bet the house that we won't have 62 points again as it's two struggling offenses in the Eagles and Giants from MetLife Stadium. Frankly, the entire NFC East is rather bland. I'm sure the Eagles will get it all together and repeat as division champion, but it might only take eight wins. The Cowboys clearly can't win a road game and Jerry Jones is calling out his own head coach. The Redskins looked terrible on Monday. Oddly, no team has repeated in the East since the Eagles from 2003-04.
The Giants are looking to end a three-game skid against Philly, although Big Blue covered both last year. It was 27-24 in Philadelphia in Week 3 in a wild game. New York was blanked for three quarters, only two explode for 24 in the fourth. Alas, it was beaten on a 61-yard walk-off field goal by Jake Elliott. In New Jersey, the Giants lost 34-29. That was the first game after Carson Wentz had torn his ACL, and Nick Foles threw four touchdown passes. The Giants led 20-7 midway through the second quarter.
Eagles at Giants Betting Story Lines
One thing both these teams have in common is a key player calling out their respective offenses of late in public. Odell Beckham Jr., being the selfish diva receiver that he is, essentially threw Eli Manning under the bus in an ESPN interview last week - for some reason, rapper Lil Wayne was sitting there with Beckham. When he was asked about his offense's struggles, OBJ said:
"Can (Eli) still throw it, yeah, but it's been pretty safe and it's been, you know ... cool catching shallow (routes) and trying to take it to the house. But I'm, you know, I want to go over the top of somebody. … A lot of it has to do with the energy that we don't have, that we don't bring every single day. And you know me. I'm a passionate, energetic person. I always have to have that. If I don't, it's going be a problem for me."
Maybe that worked because for the first time since Tom Coughlin's final game as Giants coach, New York scored at least 30 points. Alas, it lost 33-31 in Carolina on Graham Gano's unlikely 63-yard field goal as time expired. That is tied for the longest game-winning field goal in the fourth quarter or overtime in NFL history. Beckham had his best game of 2018, throwing a TD pass on a trick play and catching eight passes for 131 yards and a score. He was also responsible for a Carolina TD on a punt mistake. Beckham became the fourth player in NFL history with at least 100 receiving yards and a 50+ yard touchdown pass in the same game.
Manning threw for 326 and two scores but two picks. Saquon Barkley caught two TD passes and is the third player in NFL history to record at least 100 scrimmage yards in each of his first five games to begin a career. I'm not ready to say the Giants offense is fixed.
The Eagles tied for the NFL lead with 12 24-point games last season. They have just one this year and that took until overtime. Sunday, they managed only 21 in a two-point home loss to a Vikings team that was just destroyed defensively by the Rams. Wentz had good numbers with 311 yards and two scores, but his offensive line isn't protecting him.
In addition, top running back Jay Ajayi carried only eight times for 29 yards and questioned why his team got away from the running game: "Obviously we want to be able to run the ball early and start that rhythm early in the beginning of the game. If I remember correctly, we had maybe three carries at the end of the first quarter. With the offensive line we have on this team, running the ball like that, that doesn't make sense to me."
Ajayi has a point as Wentz has been averaging 41 dropbacks per game since returning from his major knee surgery in Week 3. If the running game is being productive, and it largely has been, there shouldn't be such a discrepancy in passing to running plays. Ajayi doesn't have to worry about it any longer. In a shock, the team placed him on season-ending IR with a torn ACL on Monday. Don't be surprised if the Eagles call Pittsburgh about Le'Veon Bell as now they have to roll with Corey Clement and Wendell Smallwood.
Eagles at Giants Betting Odds and Trends
At 5Dimes , Philadelphia is a 3-point favorite (-110) with a total of 44. On the moneyline, the Eagles are -155 and Giants +135. On the alternate lines, Philly is -2.5 (-135) and -3.5 (+115). The Eagles are 1-4 against the spread (0-2 on road) and 2-3 "over/under" (2-0 on road). The Giants are 2-3 ATS (0-2 at home) and 2-3 O/U (0-2 at home).
The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their past five road games vs. teams with a losing home record. They are 1-5 ATS in their previous six after a loss. The Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their past eight October games. They are 7-3 ATS in their previous 10 on Thursday. The under is 5-1 in Philadelphia's previous six after an ATS loss. The under is 9-3 in the Giants' past 12. The Eagles are 8-3 ATS in their past 11 at New York.
Eagles at Giants Betting Prediction
Yes, the Giants have played largely better on the road this year, but they aren't going winless at home. I'm sure the Eagles will figure things out eventually, but I don't like them on a short week here - now without their top back. Take the Giants at +3.5 and go under the total.
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