NFL Passing Props Expert Predictions with Odds and Wagering Picks
Another year of NFL action is almost upon us, and that means another year of very good play from some quarterbacks and very not-good play from several more. As bettors we can profit nicely by figuring out what to expect from different quarterbacks and betting them accordingly in the props market. Here's a look at some of the value - and the duds - in some of the passing category props available at Bovada :
Most Passing Yards
Last year Tom Brady narrowly edged Philip Rivers by just 62 yards, with Matthew Stafford not far back in third.
Tom Brady (+400): Don't get me wrong - I'm a Brady guy. But this price is ridiculous. He turns 41 on Aug. 3. Sure, he has shown no signs of mortality, but at some point age will catch up. His receivers this year are a patchwork, and Gronk seems less than fully interested in the sport right now. He absolutely could have another big year - it wouldn't be a particular surprise. But to suggest that at his age and with this team around him that he should be favored just means you don't like money that much.
Drew Brees (+450): Brees was fourth in the league last year and tops among guys who started all year in yards per attempt. But this is not 2015, and Brees is not a good bet to lead this category for the simple reason that he doesn't need to. The New Orleans' offense has matured and diversified, and Brees no longer needs to do it all himself. It's a good thing - unless you want him to lead the league in passing again.
Ben Roethlisberger (+650): Roethlisberger has the best receiver in the game to throw to, which doesn't hurt. But last year he had the third-best passing year of a long career and only finished fifth in passing. He's capable, but it feels very unlikely that Year 15 is when he is suddenly going to have a career passing year.
Philip Rivers (+750): This is where I would put my money. The team is good and improved. Rivers is hungry and will be more comfortable in his second year in the new environment. He almost won it last year and is poised to move up the ladder one step. I like the price.
Matthew Stafford (+1000): I don't hate this price, either. The new coaching staff is bringing needed vitality to the team, and despite the grief he gets Stafford can toss it with the best of them.
Last year Russell Wilson, with 34, edged Carson Wentz by one and Tom Brady by two.
Aaron Rodgers (+325): I just don't see this at all. Rodgers led the league in TD passes in 2016, but that is the only time in his career that he has done so. I don't trust his health at this point, and I am not in love with his receiving corps. A contender? Absolutely. But the favorite at a price like this? Not for me.
Brady (+350): Age plus a lack of quality receivers again make me skeptical, but I will never rule him out - though I won't bet on him.
Brees (+650): He used to be the king of this category. Things have changed, and he was only 11th last year - and the team doesn't need a whole lot more from him. Not a good bet.
Rivers (+750): He was my pick in passing yards, and I don't hate him here, either - though the other bet is more attractive.
Carson Wentz (+900): We still need to see if his knee is healthy and if he wins the starting job back. But he finished second despite throwing 113 fewer passes than Wilson and 14 less than Brady. This is worth a gamble in my eyes.
DeShone Kizer was the runaway winner with 22 last year, but he won't get a chance to defend that title. Cam Newton had 16, with Marcus Mariota at 15.
Deshaun Watson (+500): Watson had eight in just 204 pass attempts before he was injured last year - a rate that would have put him second behind Kizer over a full season. But he was a rookie, and he has immense talent. If he can come back healthy then I expect a step forward from him and don't see this price as attractive at all.
Roethlisberger (+550): He was fourth with 14 last year and has never shied away from throwing to the other team with some regularity. Could certainly happen, but no value here.
Ryan Tannehill (+550): This is just picking on a guy - it makes no sense at all. He was only 15th in the league in picks in his last full season in 2016 and hadn't had an interception problem for the two years before that, either. And given the knee, we can't even be sure he'll play a full season. Terrible value.
Eli Manning (+700): This is where all the money has to go. He's a mess on a team that is too stupid to realize they should have moved on. He has certainly never struggled to throw interceptions, and it's not like he is getting more accurate as he ages. And the Giants don't have a particularly viable option behind him - because, it seems, they don't value winning. He is the horse I will choose to ride in this race. For sure.
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