2019 Green Bay Packers Odds to win the Super Bowl with Expert Betting Predictions
The Green Bay Packers have been a model of consistency. Three coaches have coached the bulk of the years since 1992, they don't have any ownership drama, and they are so often boring in all the right ways. But last year there was indeed drama. An era ended. And now a new one is beginning. Their last two years were far, far below their typical standard, which got us to where they are now. And they have made some un-Packers-like moves to try to fix it. Expectations are again high in the eyes of bettors - which are helped by them having the best QB on the planet in the eyes of many. But are they in a position that they can live up to those expectations after a couple of years of burning a whole lot of bettors' money.
Green Bay Packers Coaching
Mike McCarthy had coached the job since 2006, going 125-77-2 and winning a Super Bowl. But he was well on his way to missing the playoffs for a second straight year - and only the fourth time in his career - when he was fired after 12 games last year. Offensive coordinator Joe Philbin coached the rest of the year but was fired along with most of the rest of the staff. To find a new coach, the team went as far from what they had as they could find. They hired Matt LaFleur, who had only been an offensive coordinator for two years and had only called plays one - for Tennessee last year. LaFleur filled the biggest requirement for coaching hires this past offseason - he knows Sean McVay. Green Bay had always hired the most boring of guys. And though it's not like LaFleur is a wild child, but he certainly is a departure from their norm. He's a risk for the most risk-averse of franchises. While LaFleur is inexperienced, he did choose experience in his coordinators. Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine, the former Cleveland head coach, is a rare holdover from last year where he was in the same role. Offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett has run offenses in Buffalo and Jacksonville, having much more success on the ground than through the air. That choice makes it clear that LaFleur intends to be involved with the passing portion of the offense.
Green Bay Packers Quarterback Situation
Aaron Rodgers had his second highest yardage total of his career last year, and he had 25 touchdowns with just two interceptions, so he was obviously effective. But it felt like he was working against his system for much of last year despite the success, and things clearly weren't working as well as they could. Most strikingly, he just didn't seem to care much of the time - as if the weight of losing had gotten him down. But at least he was healthy last year after missing so much time the year before. Needless to say, it's a good bet that Rodgers will win the starting job. Last year, DeShone Kizer was the primary backup, with rookie Tim Boyle as the third-stringer. Both are back again, and undrafted free agent Manny Wilkins out of Arizona State joins them as another body. But, obviously, this team will go just as far as Rodgers can take them.
How The Green Bay Packers Improved
The team drafted well for value, taking OLB Rashan Gary and safety Darnell Savage Jr. out of the Big Ten in the first round, a guy who will see a lot of time on the offensive line this year in Elgton Jenkins in the second round, and an excellent tight end to add to an already solid group in Jace Sternberger in the third round. It might take a while for the impact of the draft to be felt, but it will come with time. Free agency wasn't hugely active, but they did add two likely starting linebackers named Smith - Preston and Za'Darius. Those two, along with Gary, improve a pass rush that really needed some help.
How The Green Bay Packers Got Worse
Rodgers is too good to be lacking in skill position help to the extent that he was last year. But they didn't do enough to help him out and improve on that front this year. They are clearly relying heavily on the impact of LaFleur, because the talent Rodgers has to work with is far below what some other top quarterbacks have.
Green Bay Packers Schedule Analysis
They open at Chicago and then against the Vikings, so we are really going to learn a lot about this team and their place in the division early on. If they are the team we have seen the last two years despite the changes, then they will be exposed early. In Weeks 8 and 9, they have trips to Kansas City and the Chargers, respectively, that are going to be brutal. And they play all three divisional foes in the last three weeks - the last two on the road. That could really add intrigue to the race if it is as tight as the oddsmakers suggest it could be.
2019-20 Green Bay Packers Betting Odds and Trends
Green Bay is at +1800 to win the Super Bowl, which places them behind eight teams. They are the fifth choice to win the NFC at +850. The NFC North is virtually a three-way tie - both the Packers and Vikings are at +190 to win the division, with the Bears at +200. The win total is set at 9, with neither side getting unbalanced action at this point. They are also at -110 to both make the playoffs and to miss them. They are +1400 to have the best record in the league, and +5000 to have the worst record. LaFleur is at +2000 to be named coach of the year and +2500 to be the first coach fired. Rodgers is the co-third choice along with Baker Mayfield to win the MVP at +1200, behind only defending champ Patrick Mahomes and Carson Wentz. Gary is at +2000 to be defensive rookie of the year, with Savage at +3300. Expectations are high for Rodgers beyond just the MVP as well. He is the fourth choice to lead the league in passing at +750, the second choice in TDs at +600, and the third choice in +400 in passer rating. He's the longest shot on the board to lead the league in picks at +25000. Davante Adams is favored to lead the league in touchdowns at +700. It pays to be one of few good options for a great quarterback. He's the fifth choice in yards at +1000 and also the fifth choice in receptions at +800. The running game faces fewer expectations despite the presence of Hackett. Lead back Aaron Jones is at +2200 to lead the league in touchdowns and +5000 to be tops in yards.
2019-20 Green Bay Packers Predictions and NFL Picks
The changes were needed, but I'm still not buying what the Packers are selling. They are in a very tough division, and they really feel like the third-best team despite clearly having the best quarterback. They don't have the skill players to measure up, and I am not entirely convinced that Rodgers wants it badly enough to overcome the issues he faces. I'd pick them third in the division and just outside the playoffs if forced to take a stand.
Want free NFL picks? Doc's has you covered. New clients can take advantage of this great offer of $60 in free Doc's Sports members' picks for any handicapper on Doc's Expert Handicapper list. Just check out these guys' pages and see what great work they have done making money for themselves and their clients over the years. Get $60 worth of premium members' picks free . Also, get three handicappers for the price of one when you sign up for a full-season football package! Click Here for details . Get free NFL picks weekly on Doc's Sports free football picks page.
Read more articles by Trevor Whenham
Get all of this Weeks NFL picks
Get all of this Weeks Guaranteed Expert NFL Picks