2019 New England Patriots Odds to win the Super Bowl with Expert Betting Predictions
It has been well over half a year, and I still haven't recovered fully from how boring that Super Bowl was. Verging on unwatchable. But it was also a decisive win for the team of our generation. And it came years after many had written off the Patriots because of age, malaise, team construction, coaching losses, and so many other things. This is the team that won't die, led by a quarterback who may or may not be human. This era of success in New England can't last forever. Probably. But is this the year that the pack catches up? Will someone other than New England finally win the AFC?
New England Patriots Coaching
There has been some change here yet again for this team. Linebacker coach Brian Flores was hired as head coach in Miami, and he took two guys with him - wide receiver coach Chad O'Shea to be his offensive coordinator, and cornerback coach Josh Boyer to do the same job. Defensive line coach Brendan Daly also left, taking the same role in Kansas City. Former Wisconsin and Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema took over that role. There was plenty of drama around another former Big Ten coach, too. The team did not have a defensive coordinator last season after Matt Patricia left for the Lions. In February, the team hired Greg Schiano, who had been working at Ohio State most recently, in the role. Just over a month later, he retired for reasons that really aren't clear. It's not a big loss in personnel terms - Schiano is more bark than bite and brings a lot of baggage. But the drama around the team is uncharacteristic and not ideal. Still, the team still has Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels aboard, so it's hard to get too worried about the state of coaching with the team.
New England Patriots Quarterback Situation
They still have Tom Brady, and I'm not sure how much I really need to say beyond that. They still have Brian Hoyer around as the veteran security blanket, and Jarrett Stidham is the latest low-round draft choice that they will have around either as a longer term option or, more likely, as someone they can flip down the road for more than any other team could get for a similar player.
How The New England Patriots Improved
They drafted very well given their slot. Receiver N'Keal Harry feels like a steal with the last pick of the first round. So does getting Chase Winovich, the DE from Michigan, in the third round. And there is a lot more upside beyond that as well. To address some pass catching holes they made a couple of interesting, low-cost gambles. First, they brought tight end Benjamin Warson back for another stint. He's older than dirt, so his impact will be somewhat limited. But his numbers were solid last year in New Orleans and were better than that the year before in Baltimore. They also added Demaryius Thomas as a receiver. He wasn't his usual self with two teams last year, and age is a concern. However, if he can be a positive reclamation project - and he wouldn't be the first receiver to do in New England - then his impact could be real.
How The New England Patriots Got Worse
Gronk was only a shadow of his fearsome self last year, and by now the team is very familiar with playing without him. But officially being without him, and the legend of him, is a blow for this team. Losing Trey Flowers and Malcolm Brown from the defensive line wasn't great, though paying either the money they got elsewhere - especially Flowers - would not have been a great idea.
New England Patriots Schedule Analysis
Pittsburgh is a challenging opener, but it's at home. But then things get very soft - at Miami, the Jets, at Buffalo and Washington, the Giants and at the Jets. That is as easy a stretch of games as a team can hope for, and it's followed by a Cleveland team that we don't really know anything about yet. Later a stretch of at Houston and then against Kansas City could be tough, but really it is a very manageable schedule.
2019-20 New England Patriots Betting Odds and Trends
The Patriots are the +700 favorites to win the Super Bowl, so oddsmakers don't see this reign slowing down any time soon. The team is the massive -400 favorite to win the AFC East. The Jets are the second choice at +500. They are also favored to win the AFC at +350, though the gap between them and the Chiefs at +450 is smaller. The season win total is set high at 11.5, but that apparently isn't high enough - the over is still heavily favored at -140. To bet that they will make the playoffs you are only getting -800, compared to +600 if they don't. They are +600 to have the best regular-season record in the league. Tom Brady is +2000 to lead the league in passing, which groups him with Deshaun Watson and Phillip Rivers behind nine other players, including co-favorites Patrick Mahomes and Matt Ryan at +400. He is at +1400 to win the regular season MVP, which ties him with Drew Brees behind five other players. Demaryius Thomas is a long shot to lead the league in receiving yards at +7500. Sony Michel, the likely lead back for the team, is only at +3300 to win the rushing title. Winovich is at +2800 to win the defensive rookie of the year, just ahead of second round pick Joejuan Williams at +3300. Harry and third rounder Damien Harris, the running back from Alabama, are both at +2800 to win the offensive award.
2019-20 New England Patriots Predictions and NFL Picks
The Patriots are what they have been - a team that has some issues that would be much more of a problem for other teams than it is for them. They have a weak conference, a fairly soft schedule, and the best coaching-QB combo we have ever seen. And they are always a threat. But, again, they don't offer any nice betting value for the most part. If I had to make one bet, I'd take Winovich because he has a chance to pile up some stats, and the defensive class doesn't have a runaway leader this year.
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