NFL Sack Leader Props Odds with Expert Betting Predictions
We spend more time looking at offensive players than defensive ones when it comes to statistical prop bets and futures. And that makes sense - quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers have more counting stats than defensive players do. But there is no question in my mind that the most interesting category of player futures in the NFL this year is the race to see who will lead the league in sacks. It is an absolutely jam-packed race right now, with cases fairly easy to make for a wide range or terrifying quarterback hunters. It is not a great time to be a quarterback behind a questionable offensive line right now. Here's a look at how this exciting race breaks down. Things are so crazy deep that I don't even talk about guys who could easily win the race like DeMarcus Lawrence (+1000), Chandler Jones (+1200), Calais Campbell (+2200) or Dee Ford (+2500).
Related: 2019 QB Props Expert Predictions
Aaron Donald (+300): Donald, arguably the best player in the game, ran away with the crown last year - his 20.5 sacks were 4.5 more than Watt had in second place. The guy is obviously a total beast, and he is completely capable of another huge year. But at this price I can't justify a bet. His previous high was just 11, and his team ranked only 15th in sacks overall, so the gaudy number from last year could be a bit of an outlier. He's clearly still a contender, but the price isn't right with a field of guys chasing him this talented and deep.
J.J. Watt (+450): Watt was impressive last year with 16 sacks, and he obviously is a proven commodity. But he is 30, and his full season last year followed two injury riddled ones, so it is tough to trust him entirely. And the Texans aren't the easiest team to love in my eyes right now, either - it's a tough early schedule. Again, he's a strong contender but not one who provides any real value.
Khalil Mack (+450): Mack had an impressive 12.5 sacks last year, and that was after missing training camp, getting traded at the start of the season, and playing only 14 games. He has to adjust to a new defensive coordinator this year, but he has had a full year to get comfortable with his team now, and that's a big positive for him. I see more value in this price than in the two guys who came before him.
Von Miller (+750): Miller is an interesting case. For starters, he has reportedly added bulk this offseason. And as long he can handle the extra weight without sacrificing speed, that should terrify opposing quarterbacks. More significantly, though, new head coach Vic Fangio is very aggressive defensively and was in charge of the defense in which Mack had so much success last year. That will only give Miller more opportunities. Bradley Chubb was very strong as a rookie last year (and is at +1600 in this race this year), so he will continue to take pressure off of Miller and open up more opportunities. The fact that Miller is 30 and nine years in is a mild concern, but the price sure doesn't feel too wrong.
Joey Bosa (+1200): Bosa played only seven games last year, and he had 5.5 sacks. He's healthy to start this year, though, and if he can stay that way, he could take a step forward. He had 12.5 sacks in 2017, and that was in only his second year in the league. There is upside here for sure. And if you like bloodlines, you could take a shot on brother Nick, the rookie with San Francisco, at +4000 too.
Myles Garrett (+1400): Garrett had a big year last year after struggling to stay on the field as a rookie. He had 13.5 sacks last year and could easily build on that. The Browns added both Sheldon Richardson and Olivier Vernon, so the pass rush is deeper than last year for the team, and Garrett will be tougher for opposing defenses to focus on. New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks was very aggressive with the pass rush in his year as Carolina defensive coordinator in 2017, so Garrett should benefit from that as well. This would be a hard price to ignore.
Danielle Hunter (+1800): Hunter is only 24, but he already has seasons of 14.5 sacks last year and 12.5 two years before that on his record. He's a beast. And with Sheldon Richardson lost in free agency on a Minnesota defense that loves to dial up the sacks, he is going to get plenty of opportunities to do more damage again this year. I'd like this price to be just a touch higher, but like so many guys he's is a true contender.
Frank Clark (+1800) and Chris Jones (+2000): Clark had 13 sacks last year for Seattle, and now he joins a Kansas City defense that led the league in sacks. The Kansas City defense is going to look a lot different than it did last year when it was generally incompetent beyond that pass rush, but Clark will be a big part of whatever they do. He and DT Jones, who had a massive 15.5 sacks last year in a breakout season that he will be looking to replicate, make up one of the scarier duos in the league right now. And the Chiefs wouldn't have given up as much for Clark as they did - both in trade and in cap space - if they weren't serious about using him. Both of these guys are serious contenders in a field packed with them.
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