Week 10 NFL Picks: Best 6-Point Teaser Bets from Handicapper Doug Upstone
Had a repeat of last week for NFL teasers at 3-1, as fluky 88-yard Cardinals touchdown pass gave up the lone setback. Regardless, still 28-8 for the season and making stacks of cash now for teasers on two- and three-game teasers. With only 13-games this week, pickings are as thin an Instagram model, but I remain confident we will have another very successful week for you, and it's all Free!
For those new to this space, I'm the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports, and it will take a while for many of you learn what I am about and my sports betting style. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds. This is a condensed version of the most pertinent information for your usage for NFL picks, which is after all four plays.
Below are my Week 10 selections.
Buffalo at Cleveland - Nov.10 - Bills Taken From +3 to +9 over Browns
After losing to a Denver backup quarterback, who had not started in three years, back when he was in college, the Cleveland Browns are officially an acre or more tire fire. Buffalo, conversely, is tied with Baltimore for the second-best record in the AFC. The Bills are certainly the more confident team , making fewer mistakes and playing far better defense. With this teaser, we have the ability to lift Buffalo off +3 and beyond the key numbers of +6 and +7. As far as the execution, the last 63 times a team like Cleveland was off two consecutive road losses, winning 25% or less of their games on the season, they lost by 7.2 points a game on average.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Bills +9
Baltimore at Cincinnati - Nov. 10 - Ravens Taken From -10 to -4 over Bengals
The Baltimore Ravens could not have played any better than they did against New England in throttling them by 17. There is little doubt Jim Harbaugh's club will not have the same fury as last Sunday night, going from playing an unbeaten foe to one that is winless . That is why it makes sense the use Baltimore for a teaser on the road, climbing off the 10 and sliding under the 7 and 6 for extra security. It is not a mystery to understand how bad the Bengals are, and we have these added benefits. The Ravens are 28-3 against a teaser line vs. teams who give up 24 or more points a game and 21-1 against a teaser line versus defensive foes allowing 375 YPG, all in the second half of the season.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Ravens -4
Miami at Indianapolis - Nov. 10 - Colts Taken From -10.5 to -4.5 over Dolphins
Honestly, would prefer to have Jacoby Brissett under center for Indianapolis, but backup Bryan Hoyer will do in this matchup. The Colts are the superior team and will have the chance to dominate in the trenches with the No. 9 rushing offense against Miami's 31st-ranked run defense. The Dolphins won in large part to not beating themselves, as for the first time all season they did not commit a turnover. Hard to imagine that will happen again with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Our teaser situation is nearly identical to the game above with the Ravens, with the way the numbers fall. With the spread at 10 or 10.5 and the total at 44 to 45, home teams on teasers in these point ranges are 40-11.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Colts -4.5
Seattle at N.Y. San Francisco - Nov. 11 - 49ers Taken From -6.5 to -0.5 over Seahawks
Over the years for teasers, Seattle and Pete Carroll have graced these pages countless time and stuffed our pockets with cash. Nevertheless, going against him and the Seahawks in this spot. San Francisco gave a dull effort on short week and failed to beat the spread and teaser for us. Now back home with more than ample rest for a big game, the Niners will be ready. Taking San Fran lowers us below a 6 and 3, which is mighty important. However, the biggest factor of all is the Seattle defense is not close to what it was recently. The Seahawks are 22nd in points allowed, 28th in passing yards allowed and 25th in total defense. The 49ers take advantage of this and win the game.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: 49ers -0.5
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers. Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. Limiting your teasers to two, three or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and only had one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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