Week 5 Free NFL Teaser Picks from New Handicapper Doug Upstone
I'm the newest member of the sports handicapping team at Doc's Sports, it will take a while for many of you to find me and learn what I am about. With that in mind for prior readers, I'm going to leave the key points of how, in my opinion, is the best way to bet teasers against the NFL odds.
This will be condensed to have the most pertinent of information for your usage for NFL picks .
Last week I went just 2-2 on teasers, for my poorest week of the season. With all the outright upsets, I ended up with just one winner. Still, for the season I am are 13-3 on teasers and have nailed multiple 4-, 3- and 2-team teasers and will try and get back on track this week.
Below are this week's Week 5 NFL teaser picks.
Doug Upstone's NFL Teasers Method - Betting NFL teasers is not about taking off points in games you like, rather creating value going against key numbers . Those key numbers I am talking about are 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14. This is the real secret to beating the oddsmakers' NFL odds for teasers.
The other key component is betting wisely. By limiting your teasers to two-, three- or four-team groupings, that enhances your chances of winning. With most four-team teasers paying out about $240 on $100 bet, when you go to a five-teamer that jumps to +365 and keeps rising as you add more games.
Along with that so does your chances of not winning. How often have you bet teasers and parlays of six or more and had only one wrong? My guess is too often. Long shots do come in, but more often than not the money won only pays for all previous losses.
Seattle at L.A. Rams - Oct. 3 - Rams Taken From +1.5 to +7.5 over Seahawks
Those making NFL picks on Monday flipped the Rams from -2 to +2 at Seattle, completely taken aback by their sorry home showing in tumbling to Tampa Bay 55-40. What is forgotten is Los Angeles was 3-0 SU and ATS before that stinker. No question Seattle is still a high-quality outfit and can win this contest. Though Seattle has covered three of the last four get-togethers with L.A., they have lost three of them, and each cover was as an underdog. In this situation, we can have the better team, move them past the key numbers of 3, 6 and 7, supplying us great value. Plus, the Rams are 25-2 against a teaser line in road games after scoring 35 points or more.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Rams +7.5
Chicago vs. Oakland - Oct. 6 - Bears Taken From -5 to +1 over Raiders
It's time for former rockers - The Clash - and some "London Calling". Chicago and Oakland will be first of eight NFL teams playing in jolly old England. The Bears will utilize Chase Daniels as their starting QB. And while the feeling here is that will be a bigger problem later, against the Raiders defense, it won't matter as much. For this teaser, we slide under the No. 3 with Chicago and are going to depend on that ferocious defense to do their part in securing a Bears victory. Besides, with the Raiders off the upset of the Colts, in the past three years when they are off a victory, they have been outscored by 12.6 PPG in the next outing.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Bears +1
Minnesota at N.Y. Giants - Oct. 6 - Vikings Taken From -5.5 to +0.5 over Giants
The Vikings have played like the Viqueens on the road at 0-2. (A favored term, by other NFC North foes) And while New York Giants have won two straight with their rookie quarterback, Daniel Jones, who Big Blue fans think should already be fitted for Hall of Fame jacket, I'll say let's see how does this week. Minnesota has the defense to pressure Jones. And though he's a very good runner, he's not faced this kind of pressure. The G-Men's defense is a circle donut -- there is a big hole in the middle Kirk Cousins can exploit. Similar to the teaser above, the Vikes just need to win, and the last 21 times they were off a road setback, they have won by 6.7 PPG.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Vikings +0.5
Atlanta at Houston - Oct. 6 - Texans Taken From -5 to + 1 over Falcons
When reviewing these teams, one aspect really stands out, a lack of consistency. Houston has played a pair of focused games and two others where they were zoned out, like last week against Carolina. In Atlanta, there is a real sense of this club just going through the motions and lacking passion. Is that the player's fault, or is coach Dan Quinn just not getting through to them? The Falcons on offensive talent alone should not have the 5th-worst scoring differential in the NFL. I'm expecting the Texans to rebound from last week and know that they are 27-3 against a teaser line vs. teams who give up 24 or more points a game.
Doug's Doc's NFL Picks: Texans +1
Doug Upstone is the newest handicapper at Doc's Sports, and he brings years of experience with him. Doug has 21 documented No. 1 titles and finished in the Top Ten 80 other times in a distinguished career. Doug as a professional handicapper/writer, has written for various well-known sports betting websites and several of the football newsletters you have read before.
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