Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction, 10/6/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Date: Monday, October 6, 2025

Location: EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, FL

TV: ABC

Odds-Point Spread: Jaguars (+3.5)

Total-Over-Under: 46.5

EverBank Stadium is where the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) will compete against the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) on Monday. Kansas City opens this matchup as 3.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The total is set at 46.5.

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game holding a record of 2-2 for the year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Chiefs faced the Baltimore Ravens and notched a win by a score of 37-20. Patrick Mahomes finished 25-37 with 270 yds through the air and 4 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 124.8 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Travis Kelce held an average of 9.6 yards per reception by accounting for 48 yds on 5 receptions. Kareem Hunt was the best rusher for the Chiefs with 13 carries for 34 yds (2.6 yds per attempt). In all, they had 69 plays which gave them 382 yards. The Kansas City Chiefs ended up running the ball 32 times and totaled 118 yds, earning them an average of 3.7 yds per attempt. On the ground, the Chiefs gave up 166 yards on 17 attempts, which is 9.8 yards per run allowed. Kansas City relinquished 23 pass completions on 33 attempts for a total of 194 yds, and a completion percentage of 69.7%.

The Chiefs have tallied 1,329 total yards on the season. Kansas City has attained 44 first downs as a unit, and they have been flagged for 29 infractions for 241 total yards. When examining getting in the endzone, Kansas City has tallied 7 passing TD's and 3 touchdowns on the ground. They have turned the football over 1 time. Offensively, they're sitting at 110.5 rushing yds putting them 19th in the NFL. When examining getting in the endzone, the Chiefs hold an average of 24.3 points per game.

The Chiefs are sitting 8th in football when it comes to their defensive abilities, granting 19.0 points per outing. They are giving up 4.9 yards per run and 127.0 rushing yards per contest on the season. When examining yards through the air, the Chiefs have granted 743 total yards, which is good for 8th in professional football. They have allowed 185.8 yards per contest by way of the pass, and are relinquishing a completion% of 66.9%. Overall, they are relinquishing 312.8 yds per contest, which has them ranked 14th in the NFL. They have granted 4 touchdowns via the pass, in addition to 4 touchdowns by way of the ground game. Overall, they have granted 508 yards on the ground through 4 games for the season.

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The Jaguars head into this matchup 3-1 on the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Jaguars went home victorious with a score of 26-21 against the San Francisco 49ers. Travis Etienne carried the ball 19 times for 124 yards, walking away from the game with 6.5 yards per carry for Jacksonville. Brenton Strange was one of the featured targets for the Jaguars, catching 6 footballs for 45 yards (7.5 yards per catch). Trevor Lawrence (1 TD) ended the contest with 174 yards on 21-31 through the air while his QB rating was 92.7. He kept the ball away from the defense with no picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 5.6 yds. Jacksonville relinquished 24 running attempts for 83 yards (3.5 yds per rush). The Jaguars passing defense gave up a completion rate of 57.9%, relinquishing 306 yds on 22 for 38 passing. The Jaguars finished the game with 325 yards while running 63 plays (5.2 yards per play). Jacksonville rushed for 4.7 yds per attempt, finishing with 151 yards on 32 carries.

The Jacksonville Jaguars average 348.5 total yards per game, which is good for 10th in professional football. They average 144.0 rushing yds per game, and have rushed for 576 total yards. They have recorded 4 INTs while yielding 0 fumbles, and have been able to obtain 42 1st downs. The Jacksonville offense has conceded 308 total yards by way of 38 violations, which has them ranked 1st in pro football when you look at helping out the opposition. On the year, the Jaguars have thrown for a total of 818 yards through the air and hold an average of 204.5 yards through the air per contest, putting them 19th in the league. If you analyze the points being put on the board, the Jaguars rank 17th in football, maintaining an average of 24.0 PPG.

The Jaguars are surrendering 18.0 points per game, putting them 5th in the league. They have conceded 7 touchdowns through the air as well as 233.5 yards through the air per contest, putting them 24th in the league. Jacksonville has yielded a total of 331 rushing yards (82.8 yards per outing), in addition to 1 touchdown to runners for this campaign. The Jaguars defense has been on the field for 248 plays, which is good for 22nd in professional football. The defense has collected 13 turnovers (4 forced fumbles and 9 picks) on the year. On the whole, they have conceded 72 points.

Who will win tonight's Chiefs-Jaguars NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Jaguars +3.5

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