Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 9/7/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, September 7, 2025

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Falcons (+2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 47

Mercedes-Benz Stadium is the location where the Atlanta Falcons (8-9 last year) will meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7 last season) on Sunday. Atlanta opens this game as 2.5-point dogs. The total is set at 47.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers wrapped up their year holding a 10-7 mark. When they last took the field, the Buccaneers played against the Washington Commanders and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 23-20. Baker Mayfield finished 15-18 with 185 yards through the air and 2 touchdowns. He had a quarterback rating of 146.5 and ended the contest with no interceptions. Mike Evans held an average of 13.1 yds per catch by tallying 92 yds on 7 receptions. Bucky Irving was the rushing leader for the Buccaneers with 17 carries for 77 yards (4.5 yards per attempt). When all was said and done, they had 43 plays which gave them 284 yds. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers ran the ball 25 times and recorded 101 yards, which earned them an average of 4.0 yds per carry. In the running game, the Buccaneers conceded 82 yds on 33 tries, which averages out to 2.5 yds per rush allowed. Tampa Bay surrendered 24 pass completions on 35 attempts for a total of 268 yds, and a completion percentage of 68.6%.

The Buccaneers amassed 6,793 yards for the prior campaign. Tampa Bay collected 224 first downs as an offense, and they were flagged for 108 infractions for 839 total yards. Tampa Bay earned 41 passing touchdowns and 16 ground TD's. They gave the ball away 23 times (16 INTs and 7 fumbles lost). As a team, they had an average of 149.2 rushing yds, putting them 4th in football. If you're looking at notching touchdowns, the group repping Tampa Bay held an average of 29.5 points per contest.

When it comes to passing yds, the Buccaneers allowed 4,147 total yards which ranked them 29th in professional football. They allowed 243.9 yds per contest by way of the pass, and granted a completion percentage 66.3%. They relinquished 27 TD's through the air, as well as 13 via the rush. On the whole, they yielded 341.8 per contest, which had them ranking 18th in football. They allowed teams to run for an average of 4.3 yards per rushing attempt and 97.8 rushing yards per contest last season. The Buccaneers were 16th in pro football if you examine their defensive abilities, conceding 22.6 points per contest. On the whole, they relinquished 1,663 rushing yards through 17 matchups for the prior campaign.

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The Falcons ended the year having notched a 8-9 record. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Falcons went home defeated by a final of 44-38 against the Carolina Panthers. Bijan Robinson carried the rock 28 times for 170 yds, finishing the game with 6.1 yds per carry for Atlanta. Drake London was a featured target for the Falcons, bringing in 10 balls for 187 yards (18.7 yards per reception). Michael Penix (2 touchdowns) ended the contest with 312 yds on 21-38 passing while his QB rating was 88.9. He threw 1 pick and his average yards per pass attempt was 8.2 yds. Atlanta allowed 30 rush attempts for 155 yards (5.2 yds per carry). The Falcons pass defense conceded a completion percentage of 74.3%, surrendering 270 yds on 26 for 35 through the air. The Falcons ended up finishing with 537 yds while they ran 76 plays (7.1 yards per play). Atlanta ran the ball for 6.0 yds per attempt, totaling 227 yards on 38 attempts.

If you're looking at their ability to score points, the Falcons were sitting 13th in the NFL, holding an average of 22.9 points per contest. Over the course of the prior season, the Falcons threw for a total of 4,068 passing yds and averaged 239.3 passing yds per game, which had them ranking 5th in professional football. They averaged 130.5 rushing yds per outing, and rushed for 2,219 yds. The Atlanta Falcons averaged 369.8 yds per game, putting them 6th in football. The Atlanta offense granted 828 yards by way of 99 violations, which ranked 25th in professional football if you're looking at helping out the opposition.

They conceded 34 touchdowns via the pass and 224.5 passing yards per contest, which had them sitting 22nd in pro football. Atlanta surrendered a total of 2,051 rushing yds (120.6 yds per game), along with 11 touchdowns via the ground game in the previous season. The D recorded 18 takeaways (6 fumbles forced and 12 picks) for the previous season. The Falcons defense participated in 1,067 plays from scrimmage, which had them ranking 23rd in football. The Falcons allowed 24.9 points per outing, which had them ranking 23rd in professional football.

Who will win tonight's Buccaneers-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Buccaneers -2.5

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