Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction, 9/28/2025 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons

Date: Sunday, September 28, 2025

Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Falcons (+2.5)

Total-Over-Under: 45.5

The Washington Commanders (2-1) are headed to Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday where they will compete against the Atlanta Falcons (1-2). Washington opens this matchup as 2.5-point favorites. The total is set at 45.5.

The Washington Commanders step on the gridiron holding a record of 2-1 over the course of the season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Commanders faced off with the Las Vegas Raiders and walked away with a win by a score of 41-24. Jeremy McNichols led the offense in rushing for the Commanders with 4 carries for 78 yards (19.5 yds per attempt). Terry McLaurin held an average of 24.7 yards per reception by recording 74 yds on 3 catches. Marcus Mariota finished 15-21 with 207 yds through the air and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rating of 118.6 and finished the game with no picks. When it came to stopping the run, the Commanders conceded 93 yards on 28 tries, which averages out to 3.3 yds per rush allowed. Washington allowed 19 pass completions on 29 attempts for 261 yds, and a completion percentage of 65.5%. Overall, they tallied 53 plays which gave them 400 yds. The Washington Commanders ended up running the ball 32 times and recorded 201 yards, which had them averaging 6.3 yards per tote.

The Commanders have accumulated 1,062 yards over the course of this year. Washington has compiled 28 1st downs, and they have been flagged for 24 infractions for 173 yards. When examining getting in the endzone, Washington has attained 4 passing touchdowns and 5 running touchdowns. They have coughed up the ball 1 time. As a unit, they're averaging 157.3 rush yards which has them sitting 2nd in the league. Regarding scoring, the Commanders are sitting at 26.7 PPG.

Regarding yards via the pass, the Commanders have allowed 687 total yards, which has them sitting 23rd in pro football. They have conceded 229.0 yards per contest through the air, and are giving up a completion rate of 56.7%. On the whole, they have conceded 302 running yards through 3 outings over the course of this year. They have allowed 5 touchdowns via the pass, as well as 1 touchdown on the ground. In total, they are surrendering 329.7 total yards per contest, which ranks them at 20th in football. The opposition is running for 3.7 yds per run and 100.7 rushing yds per game so far this year. The Commanders are ranked 12th in pro football when examining team defense, yielding 19.0 PPG.

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The Falcons step onto the field with a record of 1-2 over the course of this season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Falcons walked away with a loss by a score of 30-0 when they played the Carolina Panthers. Michael Penix walked away from the game with 172 yards on 18-36 through the air while his quarterback rate was 40.5. He tossed 2 interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 4.8 yds. Drake London was one of the featured targets for the Falcons, bringing in 5 passes for 55 yds (11.0 yds per catch). Bijan Robinson carried the rock 13 times for 72 yards, ending the contest with 5.5 yds per attempt for Atlanta. The Falcons finished the game with 332 yards and they ran 66 plays (5.0 yds per play). Atlanta ran for 5.7 yds per carry, totaling 131 yards on 23 carries. Atlanta conceded 30 running attempts for 110 yards (3.7 yards per rush). The Falcons passing defense gave up a completion rate of 66.7%, surrendering 114 yards on 16 out of 24 through the air.

The Atlanta Falcons average 338.7 yards per contest, which is 13th in the league. They average 139.3 rush yds per contest, and have rushed for 418 total yards. They have tossed 2 picks while yielding 2 lost fumbles, and have been able to obtain 32 first downs as a team. The Atlanta offense has granted 107 yards on 16 penalties, which is good for 26th in professional football when analyzing helping out the other team. So far this year, the Falcons have earned 598 passing yards and are averaging 199.3 passing yards per outing, ranking this team at 19th in pro football. Regarding their ability to score points, the Falcons are ranked 31st in the NFL, by scoring 14.0 PPG.

The Falcons are giving up 19.7 PPG, which is 13th in the league. They have conceded 3 touchdowns through the air plus 131.0 yards via the pass per contest, which is 1st in the league. Atlanta has conceded a total of 289 rushing yards (96.3 yards per contest), plus 2 touchdowns on the ground over the course of this year. The Falcons defense has taken part in 157 plays from the line of scrimmage, putting them 2nd in the NFL. The D has attained 5 takeaways (3 fumbles forced and 2 INTs) over the course of this season. On the whole, they have conceded 59 pts.

Who will win tonight's Commanders-Falcons NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Commanders -2.5

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