Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos Prediction, 1/17/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026

Location: Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Broncos (-1.5)

Total-Over-Under: 46.5

The Buffalo Bills (12-5) are hitting the road to Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday where they will take on the Denver Broncos (14-3) in an AFC Divisional Playoff game. Denver opens this matchup as 1.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over-under comes in at 46.5.

The Buffalo Bills step on the gridiron holding a record of 12-5 this year. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Bills went up against the Jacksonville Jaguars and went home with a win by a final score of 27-24. James Cook was the rushing leader for the Bills with 15 carries for 46 yds (3.1 yards per attempt). Khalil Shakir averaged 6.8 yards per catch by notching 82 yards on 12 catches. Josh Allen went 28-35 with 273 yds through the air and 1 TD. He had a QB rate of 108.7 and finished the game without throwing an interception. When it came to stopping the run, the Bills gave up 154 yds on 23 attempts, which is an average of 6.7 yds per rush surrendered. Buffalo surrendered 18 completions on 30 attempts for a total of 205 yards, and a completion percentage of 60.0%. At the end of the game, they tallied 61 plays which gave them a total of 340 yards. The Buffalo Bills ran the football 26 times and tallied 79 yards, which had them averaging 3.0 yards per carry.

The Bills have notched 6,397 total yards this season. Buffalo has accrued 196 first downs offensively, and they have been hurt by 101 penalties for 848 total yards. When you look at getting the ball into the endzone, Buffalo has compiled 29 passing touchdowns and 30 rushing touchdowns. They have surrendered the ball 19 times (10 interceptions and 9 fumbles lost). Offensively, they're holding an average of 159.6 rushing yds which is good for 1st in pro football. Regarding scoring points, the Bills average 28.3 points per contest.

The Bills currently sit 12th in the NFL regarding their opponents scoring, surrendering 21.5 points per contest. The opposition is running for an average of 5.1 yds per rushing attempt and 136.2 rushing yds per contest this year. Regarding passing yards, the Bills have yielded 2,668 yds, putting them 1st in the league. They have granted 156.9 yds per outing by way of the pass, and are surrendering a completion rate of 59.7%. All in all, they are conceding 293.1 total yards per game, which has them sitting 7th in professional football. They have allowed 19 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 24 touchdowns via the ground game. On the whole, they have granted 2,315 running yards through 17 games this season.

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The Broncos step on the gridiron with a record of 14-3 this season. In their last game, the Broncos walked away with a victory by a final of 19-3 when they faced the Los Angeles Chargers. Bo Nix ended the game with 141 yds on 14-23 through the air while his quarterback rating was 78.4. He didn't toss any interceptions and his average yards per pass attempt was 6.1 yards. Pat Bryant was one of the featured targets for the Broncos, snagging 4 throws for 31 yards (7.8 yds per reception). RJ Harvey carried the ball 15 times for 28 yards, finishing the contest with 1.9 yds per attempt for Denver. The Broncos finished the game with a total of 240 yards and they ran 54 plays (4.4 yds per play). Denver ran for 3.7 yards per tote, finishing with a total of 116 yards on 31 carries. Denver allowed 21 run attempts for 113 yds (5.4 yards per rush). The Broncos passing defense gave up a completion percentage of 45.5%, relinquishing 104 yds on 20 for 44 through the air.

If you analyze their scoring prowess, the Broncos are ranked 14th in the NFL, by tallying 23.6 points per outing. On the season, the Broncos have earned 3,807 yards through the air and are sitting at 223.9 yards through the air per game, which has them sitting 11th in professional football. They maintain an average of 118.7 rushing yds per contest, and have carried the ball for 2,018 yards. The Denver Broncos maintain an average of 342.6 yards per contest, ranking this team at 10th in the NFL. The Denver offense has surrendered 1,149 yds by way of 124 violations, which ranks 5th in pro football with reference to helping out the opposition. They have a total of 11 picks while conceding 6 fumbles lost, and have been able to tally 196 1st downs as a team.

The Broncos are surrendering 18.3 points per game, putting them 3rd in the league. They have given up 18 touchdowns by way of the pass in addition to 187.2 yards through the air per game, which has them sitting 7th in professional football. Denver has surrendered a total of 1,548 rushing yds (91.1 yards per contest), in addition to 11 touchdowns by way of the ground game this season. The Broncos defense has taken the field for 1,061 plays, putting them 21st in the league. The defense has accrued 14 turnovers (4 forced fumbles and 10 interceptions) this season. On the whole, they have allowed 311 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Broncos NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Bills +1.5

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