Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans Prediction, 9/13/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 1

Game: Buffalo Bills vs Houston Texans

Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026

Location: Reliant Stadium in Houston, TX

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Texans -1.0

Total-Over-Under: 44.5

The Houston Texans (12-5 last season) host the Buffalo Bills (12-5 last year) at Reliant Stadium on Sunday. Buffalo opens as 1-point underdogs. The over-under is set at 44.5.

The Buffalo Bills ended the season having a 12-5 record. The last time they took the field, the Bills took the field against the Denver Broncos and walked away from this one with a loss by a score of 33-30. Josh Allen finished 25-39 with 283 yds passing and 3 TDs. He had a quarterback rating of 90 and finished the game with 2 interceptions. James Cook led the offense in rushing for the Bills with 24 carries for 117 yds (4.9 yards per carry). Dalton Kincaid averaged 13.8 yds per catch by recording 83 yds on 6 catches. The Buffalo Bills ran the football 36 times and accrued 183 yds, which is an average of 5.1 yds per attempt. On the day, they ran 75 plays which gave them a total of 449 yards. Buffalo relinquished 26 pass completions on 46 attempts for 279 yds, and a completion rate of 56.5%. In the running game, the Bills gave up 70 yds on 22 tries, which calculates to 3.2 yards per run surrendered.

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The Bills earned 6,397 yards last season. Buffalo accrued 196 first downs, and they committed 101 infractions for 848 total yards. Buffalo collected 29 passing touchdowns and 30 running touchdowns. They gave the ball to the opposition 19 times (10 picks and 9 lost fumbles). Collectively, they held an average of 159.6 rush yards, which was 1st in football. If you're looking at putting points on the board, the Bills averaged 28.3 points per outing.

If you examine pass yards, the Bills allowed 2,668 yds which ranked them 1st in professional football. They allowed 156.9 yds per game by way of the pass, and yielded a completion% of 59.7%. Overall, they granted 2,315 rushing yards through 17 contests for last year. They surrendered 19 passing TD's, as well as 24 via the rush. Overall, they conceded 293.1 per game, which had them ranking 7th in pro football. They allowed teams to run for an average of 5.1 yards per attempt on the ground and 136.2 rush yards per contest last season. The Bills were sitting 12th in professional football with reference to the opposition scoring, relinquishing 21.5 points per outing.

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The Texans wrapped up their season having produced a 12-5 mark. When they last stepped on the football field, the Texans took a loss by a final score of 28-16 when they faced the New England Patriots. Woody Marks carried the ball 14 times for 17 yards, walking away from the game with 1.2 yds per carry for Houston. Jayden Higgins was one of the featured targets for the Texans, catching 6 passes for 59 yards (9.8 yards per reception). C.J. Stroud (1 TD) ended the contest with 212 yards on 20-47 passing while his quarterback rating was 28. He tossed 4 picks and his avg yards per attempt was 4.5 yds. Houston relinquished 32 running attempts for 105 yards (3.3 yds per carry). The Texans secondary gave up a completion percentage of 59.3%, surrendering 143 yds on 16 for 27 through the air. The Texans finished the contest with a total of 241 yds while running 69 plays (3.5 yards per play). Houston ran for 2.2 yds per attempt, finishing the game with 48 yds on 22 carries.

The Houston Texans held an average of 327.0 yards per game, which was 18th in football. They held an average of 108.9 rushing yards per game, and carried the football for 1,852 yards. They surrendered 9 picks while yielding 3 fumbles, and amassed 184 1st downs as a team. The Houston offense conceded 989 total yards on 118 violations, which was 8th in the NFL when analyzing making mistakes. Last season, the Texans racked up 3,707 yards through the air and had an average of 218.1 yards through the air per game, ranking them 14th in the NFL. When talking about the points being put on the board, the Texans sat 13th in football, averaging 23.8 points per game.

The Texans allowed 17.4 points per game, which ranked them 2nd in professional football. They allowed 20 touchdowns by way of the pass and 183.5 pass yds per contest, which had them ranking 6th in football. Houston surrendered a total of 1,593 rushing yds (93.7 yards per contest), and 13 touchdowns on the ground last season. The Texans defense took part in 985 plays from scrimmage, which had them ranking 4th in pro football. Their defense compiled 29 takeaways (10 forced fumbles and 19 picks) last season. Overall, they granted 295 total points.

Who will win tonight's Bills-Texans NFL game against the spread?

Tony's Pick: Take the Texans -1.0

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