Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ

TV: FOX

Odds-Point Spread: Cardinals +4.5

Total-Over-Under: 53.5

The Arizona Cardinals (1-3) are hosting the Detroit Lions (2-2) at State Farm Stadium on Sunday. Detroit is 4.5-point favorites from oddsmakers. The over-under is 53.5.

The Detroit Lions head into this game 2-2 for the season. When they last stepped on the football field, the Lions faced off with the Carolina Panthers and ended up losing by a score of 32-26. Jared Goff connected on 32-52 with 412 yards through the air and 1 touchdown. He had a QB rating of 92.8 and finished the game without throwing a pick. Jameson Williams left with an average of 17.0 yds per catch by totaling 102 yds on 6 catches. Jahmyr Gibbs was the rushing leader for the Lions with 15 totes for 46 yds (3.1 yards per carry). Once the final whistle blew, they had 67 plays which gave them a total of 452 yds. The Detroit Lions ended up rushing 15 times and tallied 46 yards, which had them averaging 3.1 yds per attempt. In the running game, the Lions gave up 127 yds on 28 attempts, which calculates to 4.5 yards per rush allowed. Detroit conceded 29 pass completions on 41 tries for a total of 318 yds, and a completion percentage of 70.7%.

When talking about getting the ball into the endzone, the Lions are averaging 29.8 points per game. As a unit, they're holding an average of 102.0 rush yards which has them ranked 20th in pro football. The Lions currently have 1,557 yds on the campaign. Detroit has accumulated 62 first downs as an offense, and they have been called for 31 infractions for 227 total yards. They have given the ball away 1 time. If you look at getting the ball in the endzone, Detroit currently has 9 passing TD's and 5 touchdowns via the ground.

The Lions currently rank 31st in professional football regarding their opponents scoring, relinquishing 31.8 points per game. They are giving up an average of 4.4 yds per tote and 119.8 rushing yds per contest for this campaign. If you analyze yards through the air, the Lions have relinquished 1,216 yards, which has them ranked 32nd in pro football. They have yielded 304.0 total yards per contest through the air, and are giving up a completion rate of 69.7%. Overall, they are giving up 423.8 total yards per game, giving them a rank of 32nd in the league. They have yielded 11 touchdowns through the air, in addition to 6 touchdowns by way of the ground game. Overall, they have given up 479 yards via the ground game in 4 outings on the season.

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The Cardinals step onto the field with a record of 1-3 on the campaign. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Cardinals took a loss by a final score of 36-24 when they faced the New York Giants. Jeremiyah Love ran the ball 14 times for 63 yds, ending the game with 4.5 yds per attempt for Arizona. Michael Wilson was the top contributor in the passing game for the Cardinals, catching 7 throws for 95 yds (13.6 yds per catch). Jacoby Brissett (2 TDs) walked away from the contest with 166 yds on 21-35 through the air while his quarterback rating was 55.2. He tossed 3 interceptions and his average yds per pass attempt was 4.7 yards. Arizona gave up 28 run attempts for 87 yds (3.1 yds per rush). The Cardinals pass defense allowed a completion percentage of 62.1%, surrendering 232 yds on 18 for 29 passing. The Cardinals finished the contest with a total of 270 yds while running 61 plays (4.4 yards per play). Arizona rushed for 4.7 yards per attempt, finishing the game with 123 yards on 26 attempts.

If you look at their scoring prowess, the Cardinals currently rank 17th in the league, with 21.8 PPG. On the season, the Cardinals have compiled 777 pass yds and have an average of 194.3 pass yds per contest, which is 22nd in professional football. They maintain an average of 100.5 rushing yds per contest, and have rushed for 402 total yards. The Arizona Cardinals maintain an average of 294.8 yards per contest, ranking them 22nd in the league. The Arizona offense has surrendered 300 yards by way of 31 infractions, which has them ranked 12th in pro football if you analyze giving up free yards. They have allowed 4 interceptions while conceding no lost fumbles, and have been able to record 47 1st downs as a unit.

The Cardinals are conceding 29.3 points per game, which has them ranked 29th in pro football. They have relinquished 11 touchdowns through the air in addition to 233.8 yards through the air per contest, which has them ranked 22nd in pro football. Arizona has surrendered a total of 470 rush yards (117.5 yards per contest), in addition to 3 touchdowns to rushers for the season. The Cardinals defense has taken the field for 229 plays from the line of scrimmage, which is good for 5th in the league. The D has tallied 7 turnovers (4 fumbles forced and 3 interceptions) this season. Overall, they have relinquished 117 points.

Who will win tonight's Lions-Cardinals NFL game against the spread?

Josh's Pick: Take the Cardinals +4.5

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