Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction, 10/11/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 5

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026

Location: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA

TV: CBS

Odds-Point Spread: Steelers -2.5

Total-Over-Under: 44

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) will try to beat the Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Acrisure Stadium on Sunday. Indianapolis is 2.5-point underdogs from Vegas oddsmakers. The total comes in at 44.

The Indianapolis Colts step on the gridiron 2-2 on the year. In their last game, the Colts played the Washington Commanders and earned the victory with a final of 30-13. Jonathan Taylor was the rushing leader for the Colts with 20 carries for 95 yards (4.8 yards per carry). Laquon Treadwell had an average of 8.4 yards per catch by totaling 42 yards on 5 receptions. Daniel Jones finished 19-34 with 143 yds through the air. He had a quarterback rate of 53.9 and ended the contest with 1 pick. Against the rush, the Colts conceded 100 yards on 22 attempts, which is 4.5 yds per run allowed. Indianapolis allowed 18 completions on 37 tries for 217 yards, and a completion percentage of 48.6%. When the final whistle blew, they tallied 64 plays which gave them 257 yards. The Indianapolis Colts ended up running the ball 30 times and accrued 128 yds, which came out to an average of 4.3 yds per attempt.

The Colts have tallied 1,137 total yards this year. Indianapolis has attained 37 first downs as an offense, and they have been flagged for 16 penalties for 105 yds. When you look at putting points on the board, Indianapolis has accumulated 3 passing TD's and 7 TD's via the ground game. They have given the ball to the opposition 8 times (4 picks and 4 lost fumbles). Offensively, they are sitting at 109.5 rushing yds which is good for 14th in the league. With reference to scoring, the AFC representatives hold an average of 25.5 points per game.

When it comes to passing yards, the Colts have yielded 1,045 total yards, which has them ranking 29th in pro football. They have relinquished 261.3 yards per contest through the air, and are surrendering a completion rate of 61.0%. In total, they have relinquished 524 yards via the ground game in 4 contests for the season. They have yielded 6 touchdowns by way of the pass, and 5 touchdowns by way of the ground game. In total, they are surrendering 392.3 yards per contest, which has them ranked 31st in pro football. The opposition is running for an average of 4.8 yds per attempt on the ground and 131.0 running yds per contest so far this year. The Colts are ranking 22nd in pro football with reference to their opponents scoring, conceding 26.0 points per game.

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The Steelers step onto the field with a record of 2-2 this season. The last time they stepped on the football field, the Steelers went home defeated by a final of 27-24 when they faced the Cleveland Browns. Aaron Rodgers (3 TDs) ended the contest with 299 yards on 22-40 through the air while his quarterback rating was 83.2. He tossed 2 picks and his average yards per pass attempt was 7.5 yards. D.K. Metcalf was featured in the passing game for the Steelers, hauling in 5 footballs for 115 yards (23.0 yds per reception). Jaylen Warren carried the football 17 times for 93 yds, ending the game with 5.5 yds per carry for Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished the game with a total of 361 yds and they ran 59 plays (6.1 yards per play). Pittsburgh rushed the ball for 4.8 yards per tote, finishing the game with 92 yds on 19 attempts. Pittsburgh relinquished 27 rushing attempts for 112 yds (4.1 yards per rush). The Steelers passing defense allowed a completion percentage of 72.7%, relinquishing 260 yards on 24 out of 33 through the air.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have an average of 317.8 total yards per contest, which has them ranked 17th in pro football. They have an average of 94.8 rush yds per contest, and have rushed for 379 total yards. They have a total of 4 interceptions while relinquishing 2 fumbles, and have been able to record 44 1st downs as a unit. The Pittsburgh offense has conceded 198 yards on 25 violations, which is good for 28th in the league when analyzing making mistakes. On the season, the Steelers have compiled 892 pass yds and have an average of 223.0 pass yds per contest, which is 16th in professional football. If you look at their scoring prowess, the Steelers currently rank 23rd in the league, with 19.3 PPG.

The Steelers are conceding 21.8 points per game, which has them ranked 14th in pro football. They have yielded 5 touchdowns through the air in addition to 209.5 passing yards per contest, which has them ranked 12th in the NFL. Pittsburgh has yielded a total of 451 rush yds (112.8 total yards per contest), as well as 3 touchdowns via the rush this year. The Steelers defense has taken the field for 228 plays, which has them ranked 2nd in the NFL. The D has produced 8 turnovers (4 forced fumbles and 4 INTs) so far this season. In total, they have relinquished 87 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Colts-Steelers NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Steelers -2.5

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