Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Prediction, 10/4/2026 NFL Picks, Best Bets & Odds Week 4

Game: Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders

Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026

Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London, England

TV: NFL Network

Odds-Point Spread: Commanders +3.5

Total-Over-Under: 46.5

The Indianapolis Colts (1-2) are headed to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday where they will play the Washington Commanders (1-2). Indianapolis opens as 3.5-point favorites. The total has been set at 46.5.

The Indianapolis Colts head into this game 1-2 this season. In their last game, the Colts went up against the Houston Texans and notched a win by a score of 19-17. Jonathan Taylor was the rushing leader for the Colts with 23 attempts for 68 yds (3.0 yards per attempt). Josh Downs held an average of 15.4 yds per catch by notching 77 yds on 5 catches. Daniel Jones finished 24-36 with 235 yards passing and 1 touchdown. He had a quarterback rate of 82.5 and ended the game with 1 interception. When it came to stopping the run, the Colts conceded 70 yards on 21 attempts, which is an average of 3.3 yds per rush surrendered. Indianapolis relinquished 16 completions on 27 attempts for a total of 153 yards, and a completion percentage of 59.3%. For the game, they tallied 67 plays which totaled 300 yards. The Indianapolis Colts ran the rock 31 different times and accrued 89 yards, earning them an average of 2.9 yds per attempt.

If you look at putting the ball in the endzone, the Colts are averaging 24.0 points per contest. As a team, they're holding an average of 103.3 running yds putting them 15th in the league. The Colts have amassed 880 yds on the campaign. Indianapolis has notched 31 1st downs as a team, and they have committed 15 penalties for 100 yds. They have surrendered the football 6 times (3 picks and 3 fumbles lost). When you look at putting points on the board, Indianapolis has amassed 3 passing TD's and 4 touchdowns via the ground.

The Colts are ranking 30th in professional football when you look at their defensive prowess, conceding 30.3 points per contest. They are allowing an average of 4.9 yards per attempt on the ground and 141.3 rushing yds per game over the course of this year. With reference to passing yards, the Colts have yielded 828 total yards, ranking this team at 30th in professional football. They have allowed 276.0 yards per game via the pass, and are granting a completion% of 65.7%. Overall, they are conceding 417.3 yards per game, ranking this team at 32nd in professional football. They have yielded 5 touchdowns via the pass, as well as 5 touchdowns to runners. On the whole, they have granted 424 yards via the ground game in 3 matchups this season.

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The Commanders come into this game with a record of 1-2 for the season. The last time they stepped on the gridiron, the Commanders walked away with a victory by a final of 33-31 against the Seattle Seahawks. Marcus Mariota (3 touchdowns) finished the contest with 183 yards on 19-31 passing while his quarterback rating was 110. He kept the ball away from the defense with no interceptions and his Y-A was 5.9 yards. Terry McLaurin was a featured target for the Commanders, grabbing 6 balls for 77 yards (12.8 yds per catch). Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran the football 19 times for 36 yds, walking away from the contest with 1.9 yds per carry for Washington. The Commanders finished the contest with a total of 258 yds while they ran 63 plays (4.1 yards per play). Washington ran for 2.6 yards per attempt, finishing with a total of 82 yds on 32 carries. Washington allowed 18 rushing attempts for 44 yds (2.4 yards per rush). The Commanders pass defense conceded a completion rate of 69.6%, relinquishing 393 yards on 32 out of 46 through the air.

The Washington Commanders hold an average of 314.0 total yards per contest, which ranks them 18th in football. They hold an average of 132.0 rushing yards per contest, and have run for 396 yards. They have thrown no picks while conceding 1 fumble, and have earned 31 1st downs. The Washington offense has relinquished 140 yards on 20 violations, which ranks them 22nd in football concerning helping out the other team. This year, the Commanders have compiled 546 passing yds and hold an average of 182.0 passing yds per contest, which has them sitting 27th in football. In terms of their ability to score points, the Commanders are ranked 13th in football, with an average of 25.0 PPG.

The Commanders are yielding 30.7 points per outing, which ranks 31st in pro football. They have granted 11 touchdowns via the pass along with 280.3 passing yds per contest, which ranks them 31st in football. Washington has allowed a total of 246 rush yards (82.0 total yards per game), and no touchdowns to runners on the year. The Commanders defense has been on the field for 171 plays, ranking this team at 8th in professional football. The defense has a total of 3 takeaways (1 fumble and 2 INTs) so far this year. In total, they have granted 92 points in total.

Who will win tonight's Colts-Commanders NFL game against the spread?

Guy's Pick: Take the Commanders +3.5

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